Washington says $12 billion. History says trillions.
The Intercept Says Official Estimates Dramatically Understate Long-Term Financial Burden of Operation Epic Fury.
The financial cost of the U.S. war against Iran may be far higher than publicly acknowledged, potentially reaching into the trillions of dollars over time, according to an analysis by The Intercept.
The report argues that early estimates from the Trump administration significantly understate the true expense of the campaign, particularly when long-term obligations such as veterans’ care and interest on war-related debt are factored in.
President Donald Trump has suggested that the military campaign—dubbed Operation Epic Fury—could be sustained indefinitely using existing Pentagon stockpiles. His economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, put the cost at roughly $12 billion.
But defense analysts and unnamed government officials cited by The Intercept say the numbers tell a different story. They estimate that a three-week war could cost between $60 billion and $130 billion in direct expenditures alone. If fighting stretches to eight weeks, those costs could rise to $250 billion.
Crucially, those projections do not include the months of military buildup in the Middle East before the first strikes in late February, nor do they account for the longer-term economic consequences of sustained deployment.
The U.S. military budget already exceeds $830 billion for fiscal year 2026, the largest in the world. Lawmakers are reportedly considering adding at least $50 billion to a $1.5 trillion defense request for fiscal year 2027.
Historical precedent offers a cautionary tale. The George W. Bush administration initially projected that the Iraq War would cost about $40 billion. Subsequent independent assessments have placed its total price tag at roughly $8 trillion by 2021, once long-term medical care, disability payments and borrowing costs were included.
Meanwhile, U.S. national debt is nearing $39 trillion, up sharply over the past year. Trump campaigned on pledges to avoid “endless wars” and reduce government debt, promising to cut wasteful spending rather than embark on costly foreign conflicts.
The financial debate intensified this week after Joe Kent, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned in protest. Kent argued that Iran posed “no imminent threat” and accused the administration of being pressured into war.
As missile exchanges escalate in the Gulf and energy markets react to instability, the military dimension of the conflict dominates headlines. But behind the scenes, economists warn that the longer-term fiscal fallout could reshape U.S. finances for decades — long after the bombs stop falling.
