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If Hormuz closes, Bab el-Mandeb could follow—and the world economy won’t survive it unchanged.
As tensions escalate in the Middle East, a new and dangerous front is emerging—one that could push the global economy into uncharted territory. Iran is signaling that if the United States proceeds with its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, it may retaliate not just in the Gulf, but across another critical artery of global trade: the Bab el-Mandeb.
The warning marks a potential turning point in the conflict. While the Strait of Hormuz has long been the focal point of energy security—handling roughly 20% of global oil flows—the Bab el-Mandeb carries an additional 12%, linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and serving as a lifeline between Asia and Europe.
Together, these two chokepoints form the backbone of global maritime trade. Disruption in both would not simply raise prices—it could fracture supply chains worldwide.
The threat hinges on Iran’s ability to act indirectly. Analysts warn that Tehran could leverage its regional network, particularly Houthis in Yemen, to target shipping in the Red Sea. The Houthis have already demonstrated their capacity to strike vessels using drones, missiles, and explosive boats, forcing shipping companies to reroute in previous crises.
Senior Iranian figures have made the linkage explicit. Ali Akbar Velayati recently suggested that Iran views Bab el-Mandeb in the same strategic terms as Hormuz—implying that escalation in one theater could trigger retaliation in the other.
This emerging doctrine reflects a broader shift in the conflict. What began as a direct military confrontation is rapidly evolving into a multi-layered economic war, where control over trade routes becomes as decisive as battlefield victories.
For Washington, the blockade announced by U.S. Central Command is intended to pressure Iran by cutting off its oil exports and forcing concessions at the negotiating table. But such a move carries cascading risks. By targeting Hormuz, the United States may unintentionally open the door to a wider maritime confrontation stretching from the Gulf to the Red Sea.
The consequences could be immediate. Shipping insurers may withdraw coverage, freight costs could surge, and energy markets—already strained—could face a prolonged shock. Countries heavily dependent on these routes, particularly in Asia and Europe, would bear the brunt.
The deeper danger, however, lies in the precedent. If chokepoints become tools of escalation, global trade itself becomes a battlefield.
The phrase “Gate of Tears,” long associated with the Bab el-Mandeb, may soon take on a more literal meaning. The world is no longer watching a single crisis unfold—it is watching the possible convergence of two.
And if both close, even partially, the economic impact will not be regional. It will be global.
