Norwegians head to the ballot box on Monday in what has become one of the most polarised and unpredictable elections in decades. The campaign, dominated by anger over rising living costs, fierce debates over wealth taxes, and a heated row over Norway’s vast oil fund investments in Israel, has revealed deep cultural and political divides.
At the centre of the storm is the meteoric rise of the rightwing Progress Party, led by Sylvi Listhaug, whose hard-edged populism has drawn comparisons to Donald Trump and the “Maga-fication” of politics. A rightwing victory could make her prime minister — a prospect that has electrified younger male voters and unsettled Norway’s traditionally consensus-driven politics.
For now, polls suggest a narrow edge for the centre-left, raising the likelihood that Labour’s Jonas Gahr Støre will hang on as prime minister. His government, bolstered by the dramatic return of former NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg as finance minister, has staged an unlikely comeback after trailing badly just a year ago. Stoltenberg’s stature — and his high-profile meeting with Trump in Washington over trade — helped engineer a ten-point surge in Labour support almost overnight.
“This has been a whirlwind campaign,” said Shazia Majid, a commentator for VG. “The polarisation, the anger, the unexpected twists — Norwegians are waiting for the results with bated breath. It feels like a milestone election.”
The dividing lines are stark. For leftwing parties, Gaza and foreign policy have become rallying cries, especially for immigrant-background Norwegians and younger voters. On the right, frustration over high grocery and energy prices, combined with resentment of wealth taxes, has created fertile ground for Progress. Meanwhile, the Green Party has enjoyed an unexpected bump, while the Conservative Party has bled support to its more populist rival.
Turnout is expected to remain high — typically between 75% and 80% — with record levels of early voting already reported. But the outcome could hinge on smaller parties hovering around the 4% threshold needed for parliamentary representation. Tactical voting is widespread, adding yet more uncertainty.
“There are two duelling trends,” said Johannes Bergh, research director at the Institute for Social Research. “A rightwing wave, especially among the young, and renewed support for the sitting government. Which one wins out will define the night.”
Despite the campaign’s early turbulence — including uproar over oil fund investments in Israel, potentially breaching ethical guidelines — analysts say the scandal may not move the final numbers. What could matter more is whether the political centre holds, or whether Norway joins a wider European shift toward hard-right populism.
Results are expected late Monday evening. Whichever way the vote breaks, Norway’s political landscape looks set for upheaval.
