With ATMIS transitioning out and AUSSOM stepping in, fears of an Al-Shabaab resurgence grow.
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is set to conclude its 17-year presence by December, signaling a new era in Somalia’s fight against Al-Shabaab. However, this transition to the smaller African Union Stabilization and Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) comes with heightened fears that Al-Shabaab could exploit the gap left behind.
ATMIS, once lauded for its counterinsurgency gains, struggled to fully stabilize Somalia. Deep clan divisions, systemic political weaknesses, and Al-Shabaab‘s resilient shadow governance limited its success. While ATMIS made strides in securing key territories, the insurgents adapted, maintaining taxation systems and recruitment networks that enable them to operate as a shadow state.
The Somali National Army (SNA), which is supposed to take over security duties, remains fragmented along clan loyalties. Despite international training efforts, including elite units like Danab and Gorgor, Somalia’s forces remain heavily reliant on external funding. This fractured state leaves AUSSOM’s incoming 11,900 troops with an uphill battle, particularly as Al-Shabaab is expected to intensify its efforts to reclaim urban strongholds.
The new mission will also face political hurdles. Disputes between Somalia’s Federal Government and its member states, compounded by regional tensions involving Ethiopia and Egypt, hinder unified efforts against Al-Shabaab. Moreover, the inclusion of Egyptian troops under Somalia’s defence pact adds to uncertainties given Egypt’s inconsistent counterinsurgency track record.
The situation draws grim comparisons to post-withdrawal Afghanistan and Iraq, where insurgent groups quickly filled power vacuums. Without cohesive reforms and strong international backing, Somalia risks losing ground to Al-Shabaab, particularly in Mogadishu and surrounding areas.
As AUSSOM prepares to step in, Somalia’s future hinges on addressing its political fractures and building self-reliant security forces. Otherwise, the specter of Al-Shabaab’s resurgence may become a dangerous reality.
