UN Alarm: Al-Shabab’s Power Undiminished as Somalia and Kenya Face Escalating Threat.
Al-Shabab remains the single most serious threat to peace and stability in Somalia and the wider region, particularly Kenya, according to a new report by United Nations experts that underscores how resilient the al-Qaida-linked group has become despite years of military pressure.
In findings released Wednesday, the panel said that sustained operations by Somali forces and international partners have failed to significantly degrade the group’s operational capacity. Al-Shabab, the experts concluded, retains the ability to plan and execute complex, asymmetric attacks across Somalia, including in heavily fortified areas of Mogadishu.
The attempted assassination of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud on March 18, carried out near the capital, was cited as evidence of the group’s continued reach and intelligence penetration.
But the threat posed by al-Shabab extends far beyond headline attacks. The report highlights the group’s sophisticated system of extortion, forced recruitment, and propaganda, which together provide a steady flow of revenue, fighters, and ideological influence. These mechanisms, the experts said, allow the organization to regenerate even as it loses fighters on the battlefield.
The warning comes as the U.N. Security Council unanimously voted this week to extend the mandate of the African Union’s support and stabilization mission in Somalia through Dec. 31, 2026. The force, comprising nearly 12,000 uniformed personnel including police units, remains central to efforts to contain the insurgency. Yet the report suggests that military containment alone has not broken al-Shabab’s strategic momentum.
Regionally, Kenya faces a persistent and evolving threat. The panel reported that al-Shabab continues to carry out a steady stream of attacks inside Kenyan territory, averaging about six incidents per month this year. Most have occurred in Mandera and Lamu counties along the Somali border and range from roadside bombings targeting security forces to kidnappings, infrastructure sabotage, home raids, and livestock theft. The pattern reflects a strategy aimed at destabilizing border communities while stretching Kenyan security resources.
At the core of al-Shabab’s campaign, the experts said, is an unchanged ideological objective: the overthrow of Somalia’s federal government, the expulsion of foreign forces, and the creation of a “Greater Somalia” uniting ethnic Somalis across East Africa under a hardline interpretation of Islamic rule.
The report also examined the growing footprint of Islamic State in Somalia. While far smaller than al-Shabab, ISIL-Somalia has expanded steadily, drawing recruits from across the region and beyond. By the end of 2024, the group was estimated to have more than 1,000 fighters, at least 60 percent of them foreign nationals. Though limited in resources, the panel warned that its expansion represents a serious and compounding security risk.
Taken together, the findings paint a sobering picture: Somalia’s militant landscape is not shrinking but diversifying, with al-Shabab still dominant and rival extremist groups gaining ground. Without stronger political cohesion, financial disruption of militant networks, and regional coordination, the experts warn, the threat to Somalia and its neighbors is likely to endure.
