Jerusalem’s Shadow War: Israel Eyes the Horn as Iran Pushes East.

From Lebanon to the Red Sea, Iran’s proxy web stretches into Somalia. Israel now watches the Horn as a new flank in its war against Tehran’s shadow empire.

Israel’s fight with Iran is expanding into the Horn of Africa. With Somalia destabilized by the khat war, Red Sea shipping under Houthi attack, and Gulf rivals carving ports, Jerusalem prepares for a new front.

Israel has always lived surrounded by enemies. But now, across the Red Sea, a new front is opening. Somalia’s khat war and the Red Sea showdown are no longer distant crises—they are feeding Iran’s shadow empire.

The blueprint is familiar. In Lebanon, Tehran built Hezbollah into a state-within-a-state. In Yemen, it armed the Houthis into a missile force choking global shipping. In Iraq and Syria, militias became permanent proxy armies. Now, in Somalia, instability born from Kenya–Ethiopia khat wars and Gulf rivalries has created fertile ground for Tehran’s next experiment.

Al-Shabaab already bleeds khat convoys for cash. Gulf states are split: UAE fortifies Berbera, Qatar and Turkey bankroll Mogadishu. Iran needs only to slip its influence into these fractures. A port deal, a militia alliance, a smuggling network—Tehran thrives on chaos.

For Jerusalem, this is existential. The Red Sea is Israel’s lifeline for trade and naval operations. If Tehran turns Somali instability into another proxy foothold, Israel faces encirclement—from Hezbollah in the north, Houthis to the south, and now Horn militias to the west.

Mossad is already watching Berbera and Mogadishu. Israeli drones shadow shipping routes. Naval patrols out of Eilat now scan not only for Houthi missiles but for signs of Somali entanglement. The doctrine is clear: Israel will not allow Iran to plant another Hezbollah on Africa’s shores.

Trump’s tariff war has weakened Washington’s alliances, leaving the U.S. distracted. Into that vacuum, China, Russia, and Iran push. Israel stands as the anchor power on one side of the sea—forced to project strength across the Horn or risk watching Tehran surround it completely.

The Great Game has reached Jerusalem. Somalia’s khat war is no longer just a Horn story—it is Israel’s new shadow front in the global war with Iran.

Somalia: The Battlefield of the Khat War

Kenya and Ethiopia have turned khat into a weapon of war. Somalia is the frontline, where protests, smuggling, and proxy politics collide.

Somalia has become the battlefield of a khat war. Kenya pivots to Somaliland and Jubaland, Ethiopia floods Mogadishu with smugglers, and al-Shabaab taxes the routes. The stimulant leaf is now a weapon of power.

Somalia is bleeding from a war without bullets. The stimulant leaf known as khat—once just a daily chew—is now the weapon of a geo-economic battle that pits Kenya and Ethiopia against each other, with Mogadishu caught in the crossfire.

In February, Kenya’s Meru farmers halted exports in fury over collapsing prices. Within days, Mogadishu erupted. Somali women traders protested in the streets, warning that khat—staple of Somali life—was slipping beyond the reach of ordinary citizens. That crisis opened the gates for Ethiopia.

Addis Ababa seized the moment. Smuggling routes poured cheap Ethiopian khat into Somalia, undercutting Kenyan supply and winning ground in Mogadishu’s markets. What began as a trade dispute has mutated into open proxy competition: Kenya leaning on Somaliland and Jubaland to bypass Mogadishu; Ethiopia arming warlords along border corridors with bundles of green leaves.

But the battlefield isn’t just economic. Al-Shabaab now taxes khat convoys, using the leaf to bankroll its insurgency. Every shipment crossing the Somali border doubles as jihadist revenue. The stimulant has become a strategic resource, no different from oil or gold—funding militias, protests, and power grabs.

President William Ruto has framed khat as foreign policy. For Meru’s farmers, it’s survival. For Ethiopia’s syndicates, it’s conquest. For Somalia’s civilians, it’s chaos. Whoever controls khat supply controls Somalia’s streets—and whoever controls the streets bends Somalia’s fragile political order.

The khat war is Somalia’s new proxy war. The leaf is no longer a crop. It’s a weapon.