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Will India Risk Joining the Asian ‘Squad’?

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Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Romeo Brawner extended an invitation to India, urging it to join the so-called Asian “Squad”—a strategic security partnership currently comprising the US, Australia, Japan, and the Philippines, primarily aimed at containing China’s regional influence.

Brawner’s invitation underscores a major geopolitical shift. With the Philippines emerging as a central player in Washington’s renewed “Pivot (back) to Asia,” this alliance—an informal expansion of the existing AUKUS pact—is designed to ramp up pressure on China significantly.

India, already a key member of the Quad alongside the US, Japan, and Australia, stands at a delicate crossroads. While historically protective of its strategic autonomy, India’s calculations are now shifting due to Donald Trump’s aggressive stance toward China and his administration’s intensified focus on Asia. Trump’s presidency may encourage Delhi to deepen its engagement with US-led initiatives, including possibly joining or cooperating closely with the Squad through intelligence-sharing on their mutual adversary, China.

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However, this step could trigger severe repercussions. India’s recent attempts at rapprochement with China—highlighted by productive talks during the BRICS Summit—might quickly collapse if Beijing views India’s involvement with the Squad as a blatant alignment with US interests. Such a scenario could reignite border tensions and undo hard-earned diplomatic progress.

Nevertheless, India’s cautious yet significant participation, perhaps through bilateral cooperation with the Philippines rather than formally joining the Squad, might enable Delhi to maintain its strategic autonomy while benefiting from closer ties with Washington. This nuanced approach could help India navigate the geopolitical tightrope, mitigating trade pressures from the US while minimizing provocation to China.

India’s decision represents a pivotal moment: Will India manage to balance delicately between two global giants, or will aligning too closely with the Squad ignite a new front of tension in an already volatile region? Stay tuned as India maneuvers through this complex strategic landscape.

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ASSESSMENTS

Gunfire in the Gulf: Bulk Carrier Ambushed off Yemen’s Coast

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High seas alert as armed boats pursue merchant ship near Aden, reigniting piracy fears and exposing regional maritime chaos.

A merchant bulk carrier is chased by armed boats near Yemen in a dramatic 2-hour incident, reigniting fears of piracy and Houthi insurgency in the Gulf of Aden.

A quiet shipping lane turned into a maritime standoff Tuesday evening when a bulk carrier traversing the Gulf of Aden was pursued for nearly two hours by multiple small, armed boats—an alarming sign that the waters off Yemen are once again boiling with threats.

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UKMTO confirmed the incident occurred 100 nautical miles east of Aden, with gunfire reported and the vessel forced into evasive maneuvers toward the Yemeni coastline. Though no casualties were reported and the ship managed to continue its course, the confrontation has set off security alarms across the maritime world.

Who were these armed men? That’s the burning question. While some suspect traditional piracy, analysts at Neptune P2P Group argue the tactics were uncharacteristic—suggesting a more dangerous twist. Could this be a dry run for Houthi-aligned maritime militia? Or a rogue coastal faction flexing its muscle?

The Houthis, fresh off a ceasefire hiatus tied to Gaza, have recently threatened to resume attacks on shipping—especially those with Israeli links. While they’ve stayed silent about this specific incident, the implications are ominous.

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What’s certain is this: piracy in the Gulf of Aden never truly died. The brief calm following the 2023 resurgence now seems like a prelude to a new wave of asymmetric sea warfare. The EU’s extension of Operation Atalanta through 2027 suddenly looks like a prophetic move.

And the danger isn’t isolated. From Somali pirates re-emerging to Houthi threats and rogue militias in war-torn Yemen, the Gulf of Aden is becoming a maritime minefield—one gunboat away from full-scale chaos.

The next incident may not end with a safe escape—but a ship taken hostage.

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ASSESSMENTS

HOUTHIS SURROUNDED! UAE Deploys Israeli Radar from Somalia – 80,000 Troops Gear Up for Ground

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No Gaza Peace. No Ceasefire. US, Israel & Gulf Forces Push Yemen Toward Full-Blown War – From Gaza to Hodeida, the battlefield expands. Somalia’s soil becomes launchpad for a regional war.

UAE deploys Israeli-made radar from Somalia to monitor Houthi threats. 80,000 Yemeni troops prep to storm Hodeida. US-Israel forces expand strikes from Gaza to Yemen.

Somalia is now a launchpad for a new regional war.

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The war machine is humming, and Somalia has just become the quiet epicenter of a new multi-front war that stretches from Gaza to the Gulf of Aden.

In Puntland’s Bosaso, the UAE has secretly activated an Israeli-made ELM-2084 radar system—originally designed to counter missile and drone threats to Israel. But now, it’s scanning Yemeni skies for Houthi threats. It’s more than surveillance—it’s a sign that Somali soil is being militarized for a larger geopolitical showdown.

The real trigger? Yemen. The internationally recognized Yemeni government is mobilizing 80,000 troops for what could be the largest ground offensive of the decade—to take back Hodeida from Houthi control. At the same time, US Air Force C-17s have been dumping military cargo in Qatar, while B-2 bombers at Diego Garcia are being armed.

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All signs point to a wider regional war.

As the USS Carl Vinson’s F-35C jets conduct missions off Oman and Israeli special forces use Bosaso as a covert hub, it’s clear: this is not a Yemen-only war—it’s an Israeli-American-Emirati counteroffensive that stretches from Tehran to the Tihama coast.

And what about Gaza? Israel has flat-out refused to include any clause in a potential Hamas ceasefire to withdraw from the Strip. The IDF continues “surgical strikes,” ambushes intensify, and yet no political breakthrough is in sight.

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Erdogan rattles sabers, threatening a “NATO-level” response and demanding EU access. Meanwhile, Hezbollah tensions in Lebanon are flaring, and Houthi drones keep raining down on southern Israel—with little warning.

The battlefield is now a full crescent—from Las Anod’s radar domes to Gaza’s underground war rooms, and from the skies over Sanaa to the waters of the Red Sea.

This is no longer about ceasefires. This is escalation by design.

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Somalia Buys Time in Las Anod While Somaliland Prepares to Strike Back

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SSC-Khaatumo hands over 25 prisoners in a “peace gesture”—but sources say Somaliland’s military is regrouping for a full reclaim of Las Anod.

Prime Minister Hamse Barre receives prisoners from SSC-Khaatumo in a PR move during his Las Anod visit, but Somaliland sources warn: Las Anod will be retaken.

Somalia’s so-called peace plan is nothing but a smokescreen.

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Prime Minister Hamse Abdi Barre just collected 25 detainees from SSC-Khaatumo, paraded as a gesture of “reconciliation” during his visit to Las Anod, a town seized in 2023 after brutal clashes with Somaliland forces. While Mogadishu frames the handover as part of a grand “Peace Program,” insiders tell WARYATV it’s little more than a strategic photo op to cover Somalia’s rising failures in Mogadishu.

The 25 prisoners—captured during the conflict that forced Somaliland forces out of Las Anod—are now in Barre’s custody, supposedly on humanitarian grounds. But this move is far from humanitarian—it’s political theater, timed to bolster Barre’s public image ahead of the National Consultative Council (NCC) summit in Mogadishu.

This is not peace. It’s positioning.

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Secret sources confirm to WARYATV that Somaliland has been quietly preparing for a return to Las Anod—not through diplomacy, but through military strength. While Mogadishu scrambles to contain Al-Shabaab inside its own capital, Barre is staging symbolic wins in Sool to distract from his administration’s failures.

The real message? Somaliland is not retreating. It is resetting.

With morale high and ground forces ready, military commanders say the republic is preparing to defend every inch—and if need be, retake Las Anod. The prisoners may be gone, but the fight is far from over.

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US Weapons Fuel Somali Proxy War to Block Somaliland, Trigger the Great Horn Conflict

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US-trained Somali troops armed with American weapons land in Las Anod as Mogadishu wages proxy war to derail Somaliland recognition


Somalia’s PM launches invasion of Somaliland’s Las Anod using US-funded forces, prompting Hargeisa to declare a national emergency as regional war looms.

Why now? Because Somalia is desperate—and Somaliland is winning.

As international recognition inches closer for Somaliland, Mogadishu is playing its final, dangerous card: war. On April 12, 2025, Somalia’s Prime Minister—infamous for praising Hamas and spreading antisemitic slurs—landed in occupied Las Anod, flanked by units armed and trained by the United States. This is not a diplomatic tour. It’s a calculated escalation.

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A WARYATV investigation reveals that weapons supplied by the US to fight Al-Shabaab have been diverted to the front lines in Somaliland. The same US-made rifles and vehicles once hailed as tools of counterterrorism are now in the hands of proxy militias destabilizing Las Anod, a town Somalia occupies unlawfully in clear violation of Somaliland’s sovereignty.

This conflict isn’t just local anymore. Somalia has become a launchpad for China’s first military proxy effort in Africa, and its PM is openly supporting Hamas and pushing anti-Israel narratives—despite Somaliland being a key Israeli and US partner in the Horn. The question now haunts Washington: Are American taxpayers funding terror?

In January 2023, the US delivered $9 million in military equipment to Somalia. In February, 61 tons of arms arrived via USAF transport planes. By 2025, that firepower has found its way to Las Anod, in a blatant betrayal of the mission to defeat Al-Shabaab. Somalia failed to defend its capital from jihadists, so now it exports war to Somaliland.

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In response, Somaliland’s government declared the invasion a declaration of war. Its foreign ministry vowed “decisive action” to defend sovereignty. Hargeisa’s patience is gone. The regional balance is collapsing.

Somalia’s aggression isn’t just a provocation—it’s an invitation to regional war, Chinese expansion, and a dangerous rollback of Western credibility in East Africa.

Now is the moment for Washington to choose: Stand with Somaliland and Taiwan, or lose both the Horn and the Indo-Pacific to Beijing’s axis.

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Somaliland Threatens Retaliation Over PM’s Las’anod Invasion

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Houthis Escalate Drone War on U.S. and Israel as Trump’s Iran Strategy Nears Showdown

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The Pentagon is surging power into the region, deploying two nuclear-capable aircraft carriers—the Truman and Carl Vinson—along with six B-2 stealth bombers stationed at Diego Garcia. This is not routine presence—it’s battlefield posturing, and everyone knows it.

The Red Sea is boiling again—and the Houthis are turning it into a proxy battleground for Tehran’s defiance. In a chilling announcement that confirms the new escalation phase in the Middle East, Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree declared that the group launched drone attacks on an American aircraft carrier and an Israeli military site in Tel Aviv. The strikes came just days before crucial U.S.-Iran talks are set to begin in Oman—talks that now risk being overshadowed by drone smoke and explosive headlines.

The timing couldn’t be more deliberate. Iran’s terrorist proxy isn’t simply targeting enemies; it’s sending a message: “Gaza is on fire, and we’re turning up the heat.” Whether the Houthis actually hit their targets is almost secondary to the narrative they’re crafting: Iran’s reach is long, lethal, and growing bolder. The symbolism of striking Tel Aviv and a U.S. carrier—the USS Harry S. Truman, no less—is meant to humiliate, provoke, and redefine deterrence in Tehran’s favor.

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But Washington isn’t blinking. The Pentagon is surging power into the region, deploying two nuclear-capable aircraft carriers—the Truman and Carl Vinson—along with six B-2 stealth bombers stationed at Diego Garcia. This is not routine presence—it’s battlefield posturing, and everyone knows it.

The State Department’s re-designation of the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in early March wasn’t a symbolic move. It was a legal signal to allies and commercial operators alike: Stop fueling the Houthi war machine or face U.S. wrath. But the terror group has only doubled down, daring the Americans to react, and banking on Iran’s air cover—both literal and diplomatic.

And here’s the real danger: Iran is using its proxies to shape the narrative and field-test American resolve ahead of indirect negotiations. If Washington negotiates from a place of hesitation, the Iranian regime wins twice—once at the table and once on the battlefield.

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These drone attacks are not just Yemen’s rebellion. They are Tehran’s fingers pressing buttons 1,000 miles away. And while the U.S. is bracing with firepower, the window for effective deterrence is narrowing. Any misstep could push the Red Sea from proxy arena to all-out war theater.

In Tehran’s eyes, the Houthi attacks are a diplomatic opening act. For Washington, they’re a warning shot. And for Israel, they’re proof that the battlefront now stretches from Rafah to Oman to the Red Sea.

This is no longer a regional scuffle. This is Iran’s long game—and Trump’s test of will.

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Trump’s Tariff Whiplash: China Faces 125% Blow as World Gets 90-Day Reprieve

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As Trump slaps brutal tariffs on China, the rest of the world gets a temporary pause—but chaos reigns and trust in U.S. trade policy crumbles.

Trump shocks markets by pausing global tariffs for 90 days—except for China, which now faces a staggering 125% levy. Analysts warn the erratic trade policy leaves allies reeling and the global economy on edge. 

The White House hit the brakes on a global trade war—then floored the gas pedal straight into Beijing. President Trump’s chaotic tariff reversal spared most of the world with a 90-day reprieve, but not China, which now faces a backbreaking 125% tariff wall. The message? If you’re not with me, you’re the enemy—and right now, China is public enemy number one.

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Trump’s dramatic pivot came after days of financial panic and political pressure. Market freefall, corporate uproar, and Republican warnings of economic ruin finally forced his hand. “People were getting a little yippy,” he said with a smirk, trying to spin his backtrack as master-level negotiation. But the reality is far messier—and far more dangerous.

This is no trade strategy. It’s power politics laced with economic roulette. Trump spared Europe, Japan, and South Korea from immediate punishment, but kept a 10% “reciprocal” tariff in place while threatening worse. China, however, got the full blast. Their counter-tariffs—already at 84%—will now hit back hard, especially with the U.S. showing no signs of stepping down.

Beijing responded with fury, slapping restrictions on 18 U.S. defense firms and ramping up its rhetoric. EU states, meanwhile, voted to hit back with €21 billion in countermeasures. But for Trump, it’s all part of the “art of the deal,” where chaos is leverage and uncertainty is a feature—not a bug.

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Even his own trade officials were blindsided. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emerged as the architect of the China-first pressure campaign, leaving U.S. Trade Rep Jamieson Greer scrambling mid-hearing. This isn’t just dysfunction—it’s proof that America’s trade policy is being typed out in real time, tweet by tweet, from the Oval Office.

Trump’s unpredictability is now the most predictable feature of global economics. Allies no longer trust U.S. commitments. Markets react not to policy, but to presidential mood swings. And China—targeted, cornered, and now furious—has little incentive to cooperate.

In this game of economic brinkmanship, Trump may call it leverage. But for the rest of the world, it looks like self-inflicted chaos—and China may not blink.

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Oil Crashes as Trump’s Tariff Tsunami Roils Global Markets

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Crude prices plunge nearly 3% after Trump’s sweeping new tariffs spark fears of a global slowdown and dampened oil demand.

Oil prices tumbled nearly 3% as U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive new tariff strategy stoked fears of a global trade war, raising concerns about weakened economic growth and reduced oil demand.

Trump’s Tariff Gambit Triggers Global Oil Shock

The oil markets just got hit with a dose of Trump shock therapy—again.

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Crude prices plummeted nearly 3% Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs on dozens of America’s biggest trading partners. While oil itself is exempt from the tariffs, the implications are seismic: a looming trade war that threatens to strangle global growth and crush demand for crude.

Brent crude fell $1.97 to settle at $72.98, while WTI plunged $1.98 to $69.73, erasing the prior session’s gains in a sharp reversal tied directly to Trump’s press conference.

“Trade, economic growth, oil demand—it’s all connected,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB. “We’re looking at a storm coming. We just don’t know how bad it will get yet.”

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Despite the exemption of oil, gas, and refined products from the tariff list, markets are clearly pricing in wider macroeconomic risk. Analysts warn that higher inflation, slower GDP, and retaliatory measures from China, the EU, and others could be a triple threat for crude consumption.

Making matters worse, U.S. crude stockpiles surged by 6.2 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration—a shocking jump compared to forecasts of a 2.1 million-barrel draw. That inventory build has reinforced bearish sentiment in a market already rattled by geopolitical tension, supply chain disruptions, and uncertainty over central bank moves.

With Trump’s “America First” trade crusade now officially aimed at the globe, markets are bracing for the fallout. Oil is the first to wobble—but it won’t be the last. If the tariffs cascade into a full-blown trade war, the world could be staring at a perfect storm: rising prices, slowing growth, and sinking energy demand.

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The question now isn’t just how low oil can go—but how long the world can afford this kind of economic brinkmanship.

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Will France’s Far-Right Icon Wreck the Republic on Her Way Out?

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Marine Le Pen’s Conviction Could Ignite Political Chaos in France as She Eyes Revenge Over Restraint.

Marine Le Pen’s ban from France’s 2027 presidential race following a guilty verdict for embezzlement throws the country into political limbo. Will she step aside peacefully—or torch the system that condemned her? 

Marine Le Pen has spent over a decade carefully scrubbing the extremist stains off her family’s political legacy. But with a guilty verdict hanging over her head and a five-year ban from running for office, France’s far-right titan now faces a Shakespearean decision: sacrifice herself for her protégé or set the stage on fire on her way out.

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The verdict, branding Le Pen guilty of embezzling EU funds, is more than a personal legal blow—it’s a political grenade lobbed into the heart of France’s fragile democracy. And Le Pen, furious and humiliated, may be tempted to detonate the whole system in retaliation.

In true populist fashion, she’s already painting herself as a victim of a politically weaponized judiciary—echoing the same playbook used by Donald Trump. Her remarks reek of defiance, not remorse. She may not be storming courthouses yet, but her rhetoric is growing radioactive: authoritarian, indignant, and soaked in martyrdom.

The real question isn’t whether Le Pen will appeal—she will. It’s whether she’ll use her immense popularity and loyal party base to declare war on the French establishment. Because if she does, the very institutions she once claimed to uphold will become her battlefield.

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And then there’s Jordan Bardella—the polished, youthful heir she’s groomed as her successor. But the kid’s no Le Pen. His recent blunders abroad and shaky solo performances reveal a man not yet forged for presidential war. Can he really channel the fury of disillusioned voters in a post-Le Pen France? Or will the far right splinter without its iron-willed matriarch at the helm?

There’s blood in the water, and France’s political predators—on the left and the mainstream right—can smell it. They’ll pounce if Le Pen falters or if Bardella stumbles. But make no mistake: Le Pen’s next move will define the trajectory of French politics. A scorched-earth campaign could rally her base and bring down Macron’s already brittle government. Or it could destroy everything she’s built.

Le Pen once promised to civilize the far right. Now, with her political life on the line, she might just revert to the wrecking ball her enemies always feared she was. France is bracing for impact.

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