U.S.–Iran Tensions Ripple Through Oil Markets — Top Analyst Says Attack Odds at 75%
Oil markets are pricing in significant geopolitical risk as fears grow that the United States could launch a military strike on Iran in the coming days or weeks, a top energy expert said, raising the prospect of major disruption to global oil supplies.
Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House energy adviser, told CNBC that there is a roughly 75 % probability of some form of U.S. military action against Iran soon — a scenario he described as “real” and distinct from past limited strikes.
“Markets are pricing the risk that this time the past will not indicate the future — that we could have a sustained disruption in energy flows,” McNally said, noting that oil futures have already reacted sharply to the growing tension.
Oil Prices Surge on Geopolitical Premium
Brent crude futures have climbed about 14 % since the start of the year, and rose further on expectations of heightened risk, breaking a pattern of declining prices punctuated by brief reversals.
The rise in oil prices is widely attributed to market fears that any U.S. strike could provoke Iranian retaliation — particularly attempts to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint through which about 20 % of the world’s seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
Although previous U.S. military action against Iranian nuclear sites last year had only short-lived effects on oil prices, McNally warned that a new strike — under the current volatile political environment — could have more enduring implications if it affects energy infrastructure or prompts broader disruption.
Strait of Hormuz: A Critical Vulnerability
Analysts say one of the most significant risks to global energy markets is the potential for Iran to threaten or block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for a U.S. attack. This narrow waterway connects Persian Gulf producers with global markets and handles roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG exports.
Historical analysis demonstrates how sensitive oil markets are to disruptions: during the Iranian Revolution in 1979, reduced oil output triggered a global energy crisis, underscoring how even moderate changes in Middle East supply can reverberate worldwide.
Market Responses and Diplomatic Signals
Despite rising geopolitical premium in oil prices, recent reporting suggests shifts in diplomatic messaging. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed confidence that talks with the U.S. could still produce diplomatic outcomes, even as Iran’s Supreme Leader warned that any attack could spark a “regional war.”
Meanwhile, oil markets have shown sensitivity to both tensions and recalibrations, with a late-week retreat in prices following indications of serious talks between Washington and Tehran that reduced short-term fears of a supply shock.
What Happens Next?
Traders and analysts alike remain focused on the evolving U.S.–Iran dynamic. The risk of military action, though not certain, drives a geopolitical risk premium into energy markets, while the threat of disruption through strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz continues to shape oil price expectations globally.
Any escalation could send crude prices sharply higher and ripple through global economies; a sustained supply disruption — even brief — could trigger bidding wars for available oil and LNG, pushing markets into a new phase of volatility.
