Despite Israel’s ongoing offensives against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, neither group has been critically weakened, according to Brett Holmgren, acting director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC). Speaking in Washington, Holmgren noted that while Israeli intelligence and military strikes have considerably diminished these groups’ abilities to attack Israel, both retain significant assets and influence.

Holmgren highlighted Hezbollah’s substantial resources, including extensive missile stockpiles and well-armed ground forces in southern Lebanon. He acknowledged that Israeli operations have damaged Hezbollah’s leadership but stressed that the group’s “external capabilities” remain mostly unaffected, posing potential threats beyond the Middle East. U.S. officials remain on high alert for indications that Hezbollah could pursue retaliatory attacks abroad.

Hamas, which instigated the recent conflict with its October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, has faced major losses. U.S. assessments indicate the group’s shift toward insurgent-style tactics, including hit-and-run strikes. Yet, Holmgren warned that Hamas’s appeal endures, particularly among disenfranchised youth in Gaza, where viable political alternatives are lacking.

Prior to the attack, U.S. intelligence estimated Hamas’s forces between 20,000 and 30,000, and Hezbollah’s at around 40,000. Israeli estimates suggest they have neutralized about 14,000 Hamas fighters and over 2,500 Hezbollah fighters. Despite Israel’s destruction of around 80% of Hezbollah’s short- and medium-range rockets, the group’s entrenched influence in Lebanon remains substantial.

Concerns are rising that the escalating death toll in Gaza and Lebanon could inspire further extremism. U.S. officials report an uptick in propaganda from groups like ISIS and al-Qaida, which are exploiting the conflict to bolster recruitment. ISIS activities in central Syria and the IS-Khorasan affiliate in Afghanistan continue to pose serious challenges, with the latter benefiting from Taliban control issues.

In Africa, ISIS and al-Qaida affiliates have surged, particularly in the Sahel, where instability has worsened as local governments increasingly turn to Russian security forces. The U.S. warns this trend could become a major long-term threat if left unchecked.

With Hezbollah and Hamas under strain, the U.S. anticipates that Iran may leverage its regional proxies for retaliatory actions against U.S. and Israeli interests. Iran’s support of groups like al-Qaida also remains a key concern, as does Tehran’s influence strategy, which U.S. officials have observed targeting U.S. political dynamics, including the recent election.

Holmgren affirmed the NCTC’s commitment to working with the incoming Trump administration to safeguard U.S. and allied interests against these evolving threats, ensuring a seamless transition for national security operations.

Israel launched intense airstrikes across southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley on Wednesday, targeting towns where the militant group Hezbollah maintains influence. The strikes, which resulted in dozens of casualties, come amid an ongoing 13-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that has claimed more than 3,000 lives in Lebanon alone, with a significant escalation since Israeli ground forces entered southern Lebanon on October 1.

In a prerecorded statement, Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Kassem, issued a stark warning to Israel, vowing to continue the resistance until Israel “seeks to demand an end to the aggression.” Kassem hinted at the potential for indirect negotiations, should Israel halt its operations.

The strikes hit Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut’s southern suburbs and multiple locations in the eastern Baalbek-Hermel governorate. Governor Bachir Khodr, who reported the casualty numbers, said rescue operations continue amid the rubble left by at least 40 Israeli raids. In response, Hezbollah launched rockets at northern and central Israel, with air-raid sirens sounding as far south as Tel Aviv.

The conflict’s repercussions are also being felt in Gaza, where Israeli incursions against Hamas in the north have led to the displacement of over 100,000 civilians, according to U.N. estimates.

UNRWA Faces Scrutiny as Israel Targets Agency’s Role in Gaza

In the United Nations, UNRWA, the U.N. agency dedicated to supporting Palestinian refugees, is facing an existential threat as Israel’s parliament moves to ban its operations in Gaza. Established in 1949, UNRWA plays a central role in the humanitarian aid infrastructure for Palestinians, with a significant presence in Gaza.

UNRWA Commissioner General Philippe Lazzarini issued a plea for international intervention, warning that dismantling the agency would plunge Palestinian territories into deeper chaos. Israeli officials allege UNRWA’s complicity with Hamas and accuse the agency of harboring staff with ties to terrorist activities, though UNRWA maintains that no concrete evidence has been presented.

The proposed Israeli legislation has sparked a backlash from international representatives. General Assembly President Philemon Yang condemned the move, while ambassadors from several states expressed alarm at the precedent this could set for the United Nations’ autonomy.

“The eviction of a U.N. agency by the decision of a single member state would set an alarming precedent,” Belgian Ambassador Philippe Kridelka stated, representing a coalition of 16 countries supporting UNRWA’s role.

In northeastern Lebanon, rescue efforts are ongoing after Israeli airstrikes reportedly killed at least 52 people in the Bekaa Valley, as confirmed by Lebanon’s Health Ministry. The strikes, which injured 72 others, prompted mass evacuations, with video footage capturing buildings reduced to rubble and smoke clouding the area. In Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh, Israeli jets also struck dozens of structures, although no casualties were reported.

The IDF has claimed responsibility for the overnight attacks, stating that intelligence-targeted strikes aimed at Hezbollah’s alleged weapons facilities, central command sites, and infrastructure in southern Lebanon were conducted, reportedly with prior warnings to civilians. The escalation follows recent Hezbollah rocket attacks, which, according to IDF reports, killed seven people in northern Israel. Lebanon’s acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned the strikes as an expansion of Israeli aggression, casting doubt on ceasefire efforts amid ongoing U.S.-led diplomatic interventions.

In Gaza, Israeli strikes on the Nuseirat refugee camp killed over 30 people, adding to a severe humanitarian crisis in the territory. Leaders of major U.N. agencies have described the situation as “apocalyptic,” highlighting the denial of essential humanitarian aid to Gaza’s displaced populations.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated the need for Israel to comply with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which mandates Hezbollah’s withdrawal from areas south of the Litani River. Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin have also pressed Israel to expedite humanitarian access to Gaza, linking future U.S. military support to these efforts.

The conflicts across Lebanon and Gaza underscore the region’s volatility following Hamas’s deadly October 2023 attack on Israel, which triggered the current escalation. In the intervening weeks, casualties have mounted on both sides, displacing millions and deepening the humanitarian crisis across affected areas.

As hostilities intensify across multiple Middle Eastern fronts, casualties continue to mount. Fighting on Thursday claimed lives in Israel, Lebanon, the West Bank, and Gaza. In Israel, five people, including an Israeli farmer and four foreign workers, died when projectiles launched from Lebanon struck northern regions. In response, Israeli forces targeted southern Lebanon, reportedly killing at least eight individuals, among them six health workers.

Amid the escalating regional conflict, U.S. and Israeli officials met to explore a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, with both groups receiving military and financial backing from Iran. Talks centered on implementing U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which would mandate Hezbollah’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon, a longstanding but largely unfulfilled measure. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu underscored the need for any agreement to secure Israel’s safety, adding that an effective resolution should enforce measures that prevent threats along its northern border.

The situation in Gaza remains dire. Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 46 Palestinians, with further civilian casualties reported in central Gaza’s Nuseirat camp, where a paramedic and two journalists were among 16 killed. In the West Bank, Israeli military actions near the Nur Shams refugee camp claimed three lives. UNRWA, the U.N. agency supporting Palestinian refugees, reported that its local office sustained significant damage from Israeli bulldozers, rendering it unusable.

With U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirming “good progress” on advancing understandings around U.N. Resolution 1701, there is guarded optimism for reducing hostilities. However, Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Kassem, indicated continued resistance until agreeable ceasefire terms are met, while Israel demands a return of Hezbollah forces beyond the Litani River and support from the Lebanese army to secure border regions.

Complicating peace efforts, Gaza remains engulfed in violence since the October 7, 2023, Hamas assault on Israel, which killed 1,200 people and saw 250 hostages captured. In response, Israel’s military campaign has led to over 43,100 reported Palestinian deaths, largely civilians, and displaced about 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents. The recent meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides highlighted the urgent need for humanitarian aid channels, with Cyprus playing a pivotal role in facilitating assistance to the region.

Naim Kassem, recently named Hezbollah’s new leader after Hassan Nasrallah’s reported death in an Israeli airstrike, has affirmed that Hezbollah will persist in fighting Israel until a cease-fire is achieved under terms acceptable to the group. In his first public address since assuming leadership, Kassem stated that Hezbollah would not seek an immediate truce but would consider cessation under specific conditions. This message comes as Israel continues its military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, maintaining its stated goal of reducing the groups’ capabilities along its borders.

Israel’s security cabinet is reportedly discussing a potential 60-day truce with Hezbollah, with conditions that include Hezbollah’s retreat north of the Litani River and a Lebanese army presence along the border. An enforcement mechanism involving international intervention is also proposed to uphold the cease-fire. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has claimed significant degradation of Hezbollah’s missile capabilities, estimating their resources are now at 20% of previous levels due to sustained military pressure.

Amidst the conflict, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has voiced concerns about Israeli legislation that would bar the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) from operating in Gaza. He warned of severe humanitarian consequences for Palestinian refugees if the legislation proceeds, emphasizing that it could violate international obligations. Israel’s envoy to the U.N. countered that UNRWA has become a “front for Hamas.”

Meanwhile, international mediators, including U.S. officials Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein, are en route to the Middle East for discussions aimed at de-escalating tensions in both Lebanon and Gaza. The outcome of these diplomatic efforts remains uncertain as both Israeli and Hezbollah forces intensify their military activities, with the potential for further escalation looming if negotiations do not yield a mutually acceptable truce.

In a large-scale military operation, Israel’s Defense Forces (IDF) executed a calculated aerial assault targeting specific Iranian military sites. Over 100 aircraft, including advanced F-35 “Adir” stealth fighters, undertook the operation, which spanned roughly 2,000 kilometers and concentrated on strategic locations within Iran, notably Tehran and Karaj. In what officials describe as a preemptive, defensive maneuver, the IDF aimed to disable Iranian military capabilities while carefully avoiding nuclear and oil sites, an approach meant to prevent escalation beyond the immediate conflict zone.

According to IDF sources, the operation unfolded in multiple waves. The first wave focused on dismantling radar and air defense installations, laying the groundwork for subsequent attacks on military compounds. This stage-by-stage approach aimed to ensure minimal resistance from Iranian defense systems. The IDF’s tactical preparation included a coordinated strike on Syrian air defenses in the hours leading up to the operation, mitigating the risk of Iranian forces in Syria detecting Israel’s strategy.

Managing a mission of this magnitude required extensive resources, particularly in terms of logistics and fuel. Long-distance operations such as these involve mid-air refueling capabilities, a crucial asset in sustained airborne maneuvers. In addition, Israel’s elite 669 Rescue Unit was placed on high alert to respond to any emergency, underscoring the high-stakes nature of the mission.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi reportedly monitored the operation from the IDF’s headquarters in Tel Aviv, maintaining direct lines of communication with the Security Cabinet, which authorized the strike in a late-night conference call. An IDF spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, affirmed the IDF’s readiness for both defensive and offensive actions in response to any potential fallout. He added that, while there are currently no changes in public safety guidelines from the Home Front Command, citizens should remain vigilant and await updates.

The strike, according to a senior Israeli official, came in direct response to an October 1 missile attack attributed to Iranian forces, signaling a shift in Israel’s strategic tolerance for perceived Iranian provocations. The White House expressed support, asserting that Israel’s military actions align with its right to self-defense. U.S. officials disclosed that Israel provided advanced notice of the operation, allowing President Biden to remain updated in real time as events unfolded.

As regional tensions simmer, Israel’s military apparatus remains on alert, monitoring possible retaliation from Iran and its regional proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. The incident reflects an intensified phase in Israeli-Iranian hostilities, highlighting the high-stakes security landscape in the region and the potentially far-reaching implications of these calculated maneuvers.

Amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran, United Nations Security Council members on Monday called for both nations to exercise restraint and avoid further escalation following a series of retaliatory strikes. The appeal came in response to Israel’s airstrikes over the weekend targeting missile facilities in Iran, which Israel claimed were necessary to curb Tehran’s military capabilities.

The Israeli attacks followed a large missile barrage by Iran targeting Israeli sites, marking an escalation as Israel faces hostilities from Iranian-backed proxies like Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. These tensions, compounded by a deteriorating situation in Gaza and southern Lebanon, have prompted Security Council members to underscore the urgent need for diplomatic restraint. British Ambassador Barbara Woodward emphasized that “no good can come of pouring more fuel on the flames” of a mounting cycle of violence.

Russia, an ally of Iran, joined calls for restraint, with Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia suggesting that Israel’s actions were aimed at “stoking the flames of war,” accusing Israel of intentionally provoking Iran despite Tehran’s stated restraint. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressed the Israeli strikes, urging caution without directly advocating for retaliatory actions.

On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended the airstrikes as proportionate, asserting that they successfully disrupted Iran’s missile production capabilities. Israeli representative Danny Danon reiterated that Israel’s actions were a response to Iran’s provocations, warning that any further aggression would be met with “swift and decisive” repercussions.

The conflict’s regional implications have drawn heightened attention from international stakeholders. U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield reaffirmed Washington’s support for Israel’s right to self-defense, but warned Tehran against further hostilities, noting potential “severe consequences” if Iran escalates its attacks on Israel or U.S. personnel in the region.

Amid escalating violence, Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi proposed a two-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, with terms that include the release of four hostages. The ceasefire plan is the latest diplomatic attempt following extensive U.S. and Qatari-led efforts to secure a break in the conflict, but has yet to receive responses from either Israel or Hamas. Simultaneously, Israeli and Qatari officials are reported to be discussing a broader framework for a Gaza hostage release, with Israel’s Mossad chief meeting his Qatari and U.S. counterparts to negotiate terms for a potential agreement.

The Security Council meeting also addressed Israel’s recent legislative action against the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the main UN body providing services to Palestinian refugees. Israeli lawmakers passed a bill to prohibit UNRWA operations within 90 days, citing the agency’s alleged links to Hamas operatives. UNRWA, in turn, condemned the legislation as a violation of international obligations, warning that it could set a “dangerous precedent.”

The latest cycle of violence began with an October 7 attack by Hamas on Israeli soil that left 1,200 dead and saw 250 taken hostage. The situation in Gaza remains dire, with the Palestinian health ministry reporting over 43,000 deaths as Israel’s counteroffensive continues. The humanitarian toll underscores the pressing need for a resolution, as the region faces the grim possibility of further violence amid diplomatic calls for peace.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s latest diplomatic push in the Middle East marks a high-stakes effort to broker a ceasefire in the ongoing Gaza conflict. Meeting with diplomats in Qatar, Blinken emphasized that Israel had achieved its primary goal of dismantling Hamas’s military structure, particularly following the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. With $135 million in additional U.S. aid announced for Palestinian civilians, Blinken reiterated President Joe Biden’s view that Israel’s operations had met strategic objectives, underscoring this as a crucial moment to end hostilities and release remaining hostages.

Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, stood alongside Blinken, confirming renewed communication with Hamas but noting a lack of clear direction forward. Diplomatic channels are open, yet definitive resolutions remain elusive.

Meanwhile, analysts remain skeptical of Blinken’s potential impact in breaking the impasse. The conflict’s complexity deepened with recent Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon, heightening regional tensions. Gerald Feierstein of the Middle East Institute voiced doubts about the efficacy of Blinken’s repeated visits, suggesting limited room for new breakthroughs.

Further complicating the diplomatic calculus are the divergent views within the U.S. and Israeli political landscapes. Edward Ahmed Mitchell from the Council on American-Islamic Relations highlighted that the Biden administration’s ongoing support for Israel may hinder a ceasefire agreement, as Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu resists conditions such as troop withdrawal from Gaza.

On the ground, the situation remains dire. Israeli airstrikes killed at least 17 Palestinians sheltering in a Gaza school on Thursday. In Jerusalem, demonstrations are growing, with hundreds demanding the release of hostages taken by Hamas on October 7, underscoring the personal stakes amid high-level negotiations.