Uganda’s planned withdrawal could redraw Somalia’s security map—just as funding dries up and threats persist.
Uganda has announced plans to withdraw its troops from Somalia after nearly two decades of continuous peacekeeping, a decision that could reshape regional security and complicate the fight against Al-Shabab.
In a brief statement posted Sunday, Uganda’s commander-in-chief, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, said the country’s military mission in Somalia had effectively run its course. “After 19 years in Somalia, we intend to completely withdraw from that country very soon,” he wrote, offering no timetable or details on how the pullout would be executed.
Ugandan forces form the backbone of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, or AUSSOM, and are widely regarded as its most experienced and capable contingent. Estimates place between 5,000 and 6,000 Ugandan soldiers on the ground, tasked with protecting some of Somalia’s most sensitive infrastructure, including Mogadishu’s airport, seaport, and other strategic installations.
Since first deploying troops in 2007, Uganda has been a cornerstone of international efforts to stabilize Somalia. Ugandan forces were the first to arrive under the African Union banner and have provided not only manpower but also senior command leadership. Their presence has been critical in pushing back Al-Shabab and in helping rebuild Somali security institutions weakened by decades of conflict.
Yet the announcement comes at a precarious moment. No official withdrawal plan has been released, and neither Somali authorities nor the African Union have clarified how Uganda’s exit would be managed or how any resulting security gaps would be filled. For a country still grappling with insurgency and fragile state control, the loss of its most seasoned peacekeeping force raises difficult questions.
The timing is also closely tied to money. AUSSOM, which began its current mandate on Jan. 1, 2025, is under severe financial strain. The European Union has scaled back its support, while the United States has suspended funding over concerns about burden-sharing. As a result, the African Union is struggling to meet operational costs and clear arrears owed to troop-contributing countries.
Uganda’s move may therefore reflect more than strategic recalibration; it may signal fatigue with an open-ended mission increasingly underwritten by uncertain funding. But the consequences extend beyond Kampala. If Uganda follows through on a rapid withdrawal without a robust replacement, Somalia’s already fragile security architecture could face renewed pressure at a time when international backing is visibly thinning.
After 19 years on the front line, Uganda’s signal to leave underscores a hard truth confronting Somalia’s partners: peacekeeping without sustainable financing—and without a clear endgame—may no longer be politically or militarily tenable.
