Saudi Arabia’s decision to pause its bid for full membership in BRICS has sparked speculation about its geopolitical calculations amid escalating tensions with the incoming U.S. administration. The move, reported by Russian news agency Interfax and confirmed by Yuri Ushakov, a Kremlin foreign policy advisor, highlights the delicate balancing act Riyadh faces between forging closer ties with BRICS nations and maintaining its strategic relationship with Washington.
Context of the Freeze
Saudi Arabia was invited to join BRICS in 2023 as part of the bloc’s expansion, which welcomed new members like Egypt, Iran, the UAE, and Ethiopia. However, its membership never formally materialized, with Saudi officials maintaining that they had not yet fully joined the bloc. This cautious approach has now culminated in a freeze, with the timing coinciding with heightened U.S. scrutiny of BRICS and threats of punitive tariffs.
President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS member states if the bloc adopts a common currency to challenge the U.S. dollar’s dominance. While Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar dismissed the notion of a BRICS currency as speculative, Trump’s rhetoric underscores his administration’s suspicion of the bloc’s growing influence.
Russia’s role as the current BRICS chair adds another layer to the narrative. Moscow’s withdrawal of a statement in October that prematurely referred to Saudi Arabia as a member reflected Riyadh’s hesitance to fully commit, signaling that its freeze on membership may have been brewing for months.
Saudi Arabia’s decision is emblematic of its strategic recalibration in an increasingly multipolar world. BRICS offers an alternative to Western-dominated economic institutions, aligning with Riyadh’s vision of economic diversification under Vision 2030. However, joining BRICS risks alienating the United States, its longstanding security partner and a key economic ally.
Trump’s threats of tariffs further complicate Saudi Arabia’s calculus. The U.S. remains a critical trading partner and security guarantor for Riyadh. A sudden pivot toward BRICS, particularly amid Washington’s growing hostility toward the bloc, could jeopardize these ties.
Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s rivalry with Iran, another BRICS member, likely influences its hesitancy. While recent rapprochements have reduced tensions, aligning with a bloc that includes Tehran could create internal and regional backlash.
The Dollar Dilemma
At the heart of this dynamic is the U.S. dollar’s dominance. BRICS has hinted at exploring alternatives to the dollar in international trade, an initiative that has alarmed Washington. For Saudi Arabia, whose oil trade is tightly linked to the petrodollar system, such a shift would be a seismic economic gamble.
Riyadh’s decision to freeze its BRICS membership suggests a desire to avoid exacerbating tensions with the U.S., especially as Trump prepares to take office. The potential tariffs serve as a stark reminder of the economic leverage Washington wields over its allies.
Russia’s presidency of BRICS has added urgency to its push for Saudi membership, viewing Riyadh as a key partner in counterbalancing Western influence. However, Saudi Arabia’s freeze represents a setback for Moscow, underscoring the challenges BRICS faces in uniting countries with divergent priorities.
For BRICS, Saudi Arabia’s hesitancy underscores the limits of its appeal as an alternative global bloc. While the group has successfully expanded its membership, convincing major players like Saudi Arabia to fully align remains a challenge.
A Delicate Balancing Act
Saudi Arabia’s freeze on BRICS membership reflects its broader geopolitical strategy of maintaining flexibility while navigating the complex dynamics of U.S.-China rivalry, Middle Eastern politics, and global economic shifts. The move highlights Riyadh’s reluctance to commit fully to any single bloc, preserving its ability to maneuver between competing powers.
As Trump’s administration prepares to take the reins, Riyadh’s cautious approach signals that it is acutely aware of the high stakes involved. By pausing its BRICS membership bid, Saudi Arabia underscores the importance of preserving its strategic partnership with the United States while continuing to explore new alliances in an evolving global order.
