Who Controls Syria Today and Why Fighting Between Damascus and the Kurds Is Escalating.
The latest fighting in Syria is often described as a simple clash between the new government in Damascus and Kurdish forces. That framing is convenient — and dangerously incomplete. What is unfolding is not a single conflict, but a collision of unfinished wars, rival governance models, and unresolved regional agendas.
Syria today is a fractured state in both territory and authority.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) still control most of eastern Syria, including large parts of Hasakah, Raqqa countryside, and areas along the Euphrates. Though Kurdish-led, the SDF is a multi-ethnic force built with U.S. backing to defeat ISIS. Its military backbone comes from the YPG and YPJ, groups that proved decisive against ISIS but remain toxic in Ankara due to their historical ties to the PKK. This alone guarantees permanent tension with Turkey — and by extension, with any Syrian government aligned with Ankara.
Civilian governance in the east is handled by DAANES, a heavily Kurdish, left-leaning administration that functions as a de facto one-party system. While relatively stable, it lacks international recognition and faces growing pressure from Arab tribes who feel marginalized — a fault line now being actively exploited.
On the other side stands the Syrian Transitional Government (STG), born from the rapid collapse of the Assad regime after Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s lightning offensive in late 2024. Under Ahmed al-Shara’a, HTS rebranded from jihadist insurgency into state power almost overnight. Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, and Hama are now firmly under STG control, backed by Sunni Arab support, Turkish influence, Gulf funding, and quiet U.S. engagement.
But legitimacy remains fragile.
The STG has clashed with Alawites in Latakia, Druze in Suwayda, and Kurds in Aleppo, reinforcing fears among minorities that Damascus is replacing Assad-era centralism with a new Sunni-dominated order. Promised integration of the SDF into a national army collapsed, and armed confrontation filled the vacuum.
Turkey still controls pockets of northern Syria through proxy forces. The Druze run Suwayda as a closed autonomous zone. Israel holds a buffer near the Golan. No single actor governs Syria — they merely manage pieces of it.
The most dangerous shift now lies east of the Euphrates. Arab tribes along the river valley are realigning toward Damascus, threatening to peel away SDF-held territory from within. This region has long been a corridor for ISIS, militias, and foreign interference. If it ignites again, the conflict will not stay local.
In short, Syria’s war continues because the state was rebuilt without consensus. Damascus seeks unity through force. The Kurds seek survival through autonomy. Regional powers see opportunity, not reconciliation. Until those equations change, Syria will remain divided — not by borders, but by unresolved power.
