Rising military tensions and unresolved grievances push Ethiopia and Eritrea closer to renewed conflict in the Horn of Africa.
Less than seven years after peace was declared, Ethiopia and Eritrea appear to be on a dangerous collision course once again. Rising military mobilizations, inflamed rhetoric, and historical grievances have raised fears that these longtime adversaries could soon reignite conflict, destabilizing an already fragile Horn of Africa.
Tensions flared in recent months as Eritrea reportedly ramped up military conscription and Ethiopia deployed troops along its northern border. Ethiopian Airlines, a symbolic link reopened during the 2018 peace deal, abruptly suspended flights after Eritrea froze its bank accounts without explanation—a troubling diplomatic signal.
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, insists that his country’s quest for maritime access—cut off after Eritrea’s independence—is peaceful. Yet, Eritrean officials, including Foreign Minister Osman Saleh, condemn Ethiopia’s ambitions as “misguided” and provocative. Addis Ababa’s persistent talk of regaining sea access, particularly the strategic port city of Assab, fuels mistrust in Asmara.
Central to the escalating tensions is Ethiopia’s embattled Tigray region, recently torn apart by civil war. Although Eritrea joined Ethiopia against Tigray’s rebel TPLF, the subsequent peace negotiations excluded Asmara, stoking resentment. The situation worsened when a splinter faction of TPLF seized key Tigrayan cities and was accused of collaborating covertly with Eritrea—charges that Eritrea vehemently denies.
The threat of renewed war has prompted urgent calls from international observers, former envoys, and regional bodies like the African Union, warning that current hostilities represent “dry tinder waiting for a match.” Amid this tense environment, residents of Tigray queue desperately at banks, seeking cash to flee what many fear is an inevitable conflict.
Ethiopia’s diplomatic friction extends further, angering Somalia over a separate port deal with Somaliland, while Eritrea aligns with Ethiopia’s rivals, Somalia and Egypt, increasing regional polarization.
As both Ethiopia and Eritrea edge closer to confrontation, only robust international mediation can defuse the ticking time bomb threatening to plunge the Horn of Africa into another catastrophic war.
