A deadline has been set. Ignore it, the opposition warns, and Somalia risks sliding into a constitutional and security crisis.
Somalia’s fragile political equilibrium is facing a new test after the Somali Future Council issued a one-month ultimatum to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, demanding the convening of inclusive national election talks by January 20, 2026.
In a communiqué released at the conclusion of meetings held in Kismayo between December 18 and 20, the newly formed alliance warned that failure to act would force it to take steps toward organizing an alternative electoral process. The stated aim, the group said, would be to prevent a constitutional vacuum, avert a security breakdown, and reduce the risk of renewed terrorist violence.
The warning goes beyond procedural complaints. During the Kismayo conference, opposition leaders accused the president of presiding over systemic governance failure, alleging that his administration has deepened political divisions, weakened institutions, and stalled development.
The communiqué charged that constitutional amendments have been pushed through without consensus, oversight bodies sidelined, and some federal member states allowed to overstay their legal mandates—changes the group described as a fundamental distortion of Somalia’s political order.
Security featured prominently in the criticism. The Council argued that the fight against Al-Shabaab has lost momentum, with morale within the armed forces eroded by corruption, favoritism, and abuse of power. In their assessment, stalled counterterrorism efforts now intersect with political paralysis, amplifying national risk rather than containing it.
The alliance also painted a bleak economic and humanitarian picture, accusing the federal government of enabling corruption, forced displacement, and the sale of public land. These practices, it said, have undermined confidence among both domestic and foreign investors while worsening hardship for vulnerable communities.
Despite the confrontational tone, the Somali Future Council left the door open to dialogue. It said it is ready to engage the president on a negotiated and transparent election—one it claims should be more advanced and credible than the 2022 process, strengthen local representation, and restore parliamentary legitimacy.
The group firmly rejected ongoing elections in the Banadir region, arguing they amount to a one-party process that violates citizens’ rights. Without resolving the legal status of the capital, the Council said, such elections are unconstitutional. The timing is sensitive: the National Independent Electoral Commission plans to hold one-person, one-vote local council polls in Banadir on December 25.
Formed in October, the Somali Future Council brings together the leadership of Puntland, Jubaland, and members of the Somali Salvation Forum. United by opposition to unilateral electoral moves, the alliance has rejected proceeding toward 2026 polls without broad national consensus.
At the core of the standoff lie unresolved questions: the election model, timing, security conditions, constitutional amendments, and control of the electoral process itself. Analysts warn that pushing ahead without major stakeholders risks reshaping Somalia’s politics in destabilizing ways. In a system long dependent on negotiated balance, they argue, consensus is not a luxury—it is the only viable guardrail against post-election unrest.
