As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to meet U.S. President Donald Trump, the stage is set for another high-stakes negotiation in the Middle East. Drawing from his 2017 strategy, Trump appears ready to broaden the diplomatic canvas to force movement on the Gaza war, hostage deals, and regional realignments.
Trump’s Game Plan: A Bigger Deal for a Bigger Concession
Trump’s Middle East policy has always been defined by thinking beyond traditional frameworks. In 2017, he abandoned the two-state orthodoxy, signaling openness to alternatives. Now, he seems poised to redefine the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by weaving it into a larger regional deal, which could involve Jordan, Egypt, and Gulf states.
The sticking point in the hostage deal negotiations remains Hamas’ demand for a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and an end to the war—something Netanyahu has categorically rejected. Trump’s approach? Offer Israel incentives to compromise by tying the deal to something far bigger: Saudi normalization, security guarantees, and population redistribution.
The “Refugee Relocation” Bargain
Trump’s most controversial proposal—convincing third countries to take in Gazan refugees—aims to ease pressure on Netanyahu’s fragile coalition. If Israel agrees to a ceasefire and limited withdrawal, Trump could leverage U.S. influence to pressure Gulf states into absorbing displaced Palestinians. This would not only weaken Hamas’ grip but also neutralize domestic Israeli opposition to a broader settlement.
Saudi Normalization: Netanyahu’s Escape Route?
Trump may also revive the Abraham Accords momentum, offering Saudi recognition of Israel as the ultimate prize—provided Israel makes limited concessions on Gaza’s governance. In 2020, Trump convinced Netanyahu to freeze West Bank annexation in exchange for peace deals with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. Could he pull off a similar trade-off in 2025?
Netanyahu’s Political Dilemma
Unlike 2017, Netanyahu now faces serious constraints:
- A weakened domestic position due to judicial conflicts and the ICC arrest warrant threat.
- A right-wing coalition that opposes any compromise with the Palestinians.
- Hamas’ continued presence in Gaza, which complicates any ceasefire agreement.
While Trump’s deal-making instincts suggest a grand bargain is on the table, Netanyahu’s ability to sell it at home is highly questionable. If he accepts too many concessions, his government could collapse—but if he rejects Trump’s expanded vision, he risks alienating his most powerful ally.
Ultimately, Trump is playing the long game, and if his strategy of “expanding the canvas” succeeds, the Middle East could see a historic power shift—one that reshapes alliances, redraws battle lines, and alters the fate of Gaza’s population. The question remains: Will Netanyahu gamble on a bigger deal, or will his political reality force him into a corner?
