Somalia’s Aid Collapse Meets El Niño Flood Risk and Expanding Hunger
Life After the Aid Safety Net
Somalia is approaching flood season with more hungry people, less humanitarian funding and unfinished protection infrastructure.
Three crises converge
The Financial Times reports that humanitarian funding for Somalia has fallen from approximately $2.2 billion in 2022 to below $300 million in 2026. Meanwhile, WFP estimates that 5.4 million people face acute hunger or worse, including nearly 1.5 million at emergency levels.
Expected El Niño-related flooding could destroy farms and displace communities already affected by drought, conflict and reduced assistance.
WARYATV assessment
The danger is not simply another humanitarian emergency. It is the erosion of the system that previously prevented climate shocks from becoming mass-casualty events.
Aid agencies have less capacity to pre-position food, repair water systems, support hospitals or respond after displacement. Al-Shabaab-controlled or contested areas face an additional constraint: access can be restricted precisely where needs are greatest.
Somaliland should not assume geographical distance provides immunity. Regional grain prices, livestock markets, displacement and donor priorities cross political boundaries. If Somalia’s emergency worsens, agencies may redirect funding from longer-term Somaliland programmes toward lifesaving operations elsewhere.
This makes locally financed resilience more important. Somaliland needs district-level food and medicine reserves, flood mapping, functioning drainage, reliable early-warning communications and transparent emergency-procurement rules. Waiting for international appeals to succeed is becoming a less credible strategy.
