With Assad overthrown, Syria’s fractured rebel coalition, led by HTS, struggles to navigate the complexities of peacebuilding and power-sharing.

The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad marks a historic victory for Syria’s rebel forces, but the celebrations are tempered by an uncertain future. Drawing lessons from post-conflict transitions in countries like Libya, Uganda, and Ethiopia, Syria faces the risk of internal fragmentation and renewed violence as competing factions vie for influence in the absence of a stable authority.

The Military Operations Command, the coalition that toppled Assad, has already disbanded in all but name. The dominant faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, remains the primary force, but its own internal structure—a merger of at least four separate militias—reflects the precarious nature of alliances forged during the conflict.

Al-Sharaa’s pledge to disband all factions and integrate fighters into a national defense ministry is ambitious but fraught with challenges. History suggests that rival factions are likely to emerge, challenging HTS’s legitimacy and threatening the fragile unity of Syria’s transitional period.

Syria’s post-conflict trajectory mirrors challenges seen in Libya, South Sudan, and Uganda:

Fragmentation of Coalitions: In Libya, the National Transition Council quickly fractured into rival militias, resulting in prolonged instability. Similar dynamics could play out in Syria as smaller factions, uncertain of their place in a centralized system, switch allegiances to strengthen their positions.

Shifting Loyalties: Opportunistic realignments among militias, seen in both Libya and South Sudan, could undermine HTS’s efforts to consolidate power and create a unified defense structure.

High-Stakes National Politics: HTS’s vision for a unified state without federal regions raises the stakes for national elections, making the political game a zero-sum contest prone to violent outcomes, as demonstrated by Uganda’s post-Amin elections.

Ethiopia’s post-Derg transition attempted to devolve power to ethnic regions, providing former rebel factions with localized stakes. While imperfect, this approach mitigated some of the risks associated with centralized governance.

In Syria, however, the lack of clear ethno-territorial bases for most militias and HTS’s rejection of federalism as a political model limit the viability of such a solution. The emphasis on a unified state places immense pressure on the transitional government to navigate competing interests without devolving into renewed conflict.

While elections are a cornerstone of democratic transitions, their timing and structure can determine whether they stabilize or destabilize a nation. In Uganda, elections in 1980 reignited rebellion when one faction felt marginalized. Similarly, in Syria, elections held prematurely or without inclusive power-sharing mechanisms risk sidelining factions and provoking violent reprisals.

Syria’s post-Assad transition faces significant hurdles:

Internal Rivalries: The diverse and often overlapping interests of militias under the HTS umbrella threaten to fracture the coalition.

Uncertain Governance: The absence of federalist structures or other mechanisms to provide localized stakes may intensify competition for national power.

External Influences: Regional and international actors, including Turkey, Iran, and Russia, may exacerbate internal divisions as they seek to shape Syria’s future.

Syria’s post-war path to peace is fraught with complexities. While HTS’s leadership offers a temporary anchor, the fragmented nature of the coalition, the lack of decentralized governance, and the high stakes of national politics present significant risks of renewed violence.

Learning from past transitions, Syria’s future stability hinges on building inclusive governance structures, carefully timing elections, and addressing the underlying grievances that fueled years of conflict. Without such measures, the celebration of Assad’s fall may soon give way to a new chapter of uncertainty and violence.

Israeli airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen kill six, injure dozens as WHO chief negotiates UN staff release during the attack.

Israeli airstrikes targeting Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen escalated regional tensions on Thursday, killing at least six people and injuring dozens. Among those present during the attack was WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who was at Sanaa International Airport to negotiate the release of UN staff detainees.

The Strikes and Their Aftermath

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted what they described as “intelligence-based strikes” on military targets in Yemen, including:

• Sanaa International Airport: Strikes damaged the air traffic control tower, departure lounge, and runway.
• Power Stations: The Haziz and Ras Kanatib power stations were hit, affecting civilian infrastructure.
• Ports: Military sites in Al-Hudaydah, Salif, and Ras Kanatib ports on the western coast were targeted.

Houthi-run media reported six fatalities—three at the airport and three in Hodeidah province—and over 40 injuries. Victims included individuals at the airport, where multiple strikes occurred.

UN Response

WHO Chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus confirmed the strikes disrupted his team’s mission to assess Yemen’s humanitarian situation and negotiate the release of UN detainees. In a statement, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called the strikes “especially alarming,” warning of further regional escalation.

Israel’s Position

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended the strikes, framing them as part of a broader effort to dismantle Iran’s influence in the region. “We are only just starting with [the Houthis],” Netanyahu said, signaling more actions to come.

The strikes follow a series of Houthi missile launches into Israel, including a recent attack that injured over a dozen civilians. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned earlier this week that Israel would “decapitate” Houthi leadership if provocations continued.

The Houthi Response

Houthi leaders condemned the strikes as “barbaric” and linked them to broader regional conflicts, vowing to continue “confrontations with American and Israeli arrogance.” Iran, a key backer of the Houthis, described the airstrikes as a “clear violation of international peace and security.”

Humanitarian Concerns

The presence of WHO and UN staff at the airport during the strikes highlights the fragile state of Yemen’s humanitarian crisis. Sanaa’s airport is a critical hub for humanitarian aid and medical supplies in a country devastated by nearly a decade of civil war. The strikes risk further disrupting already limited aid flows.

Broader Context

The conflict between Israel and the Houthis, an Iranian-backed group, has intensified since the start of the Gaza war in October 2023. The Houthis have launched multiple missile and drone attacks on Israel, while Israel has retaliated with airstrikes in Yemen.

This escalation underscores the broader proxy dynamics in the region, with Iran’s support for groups like the Houthis increasingly drawing Israel into direct conflict beyond its immediate borders.

Conclusion

The Israeli strikes on Yemen, conducted as part of its campaign against Iranian-backed militias, mark a dangerous escalation in the region’s interconnected conflicts. With humanitarian operations and civilian infrastructure caught in the crossfire, the risks of further destabilization loom large.

As the situation develops, the international community will face growing pressure to mediate and prevent broader regional fallout, especially as Yemen remains one of the world’s most fragile states.

Israeli Missile Interception Highlights Broader Conflict Dynamics

Early Tuesday, Israel’s military successfully intercepted a missile launched from Yemen, averting potential destruction and casualties. The Yemen-based Houthi militants, aligned with Iran, have escalated their missile attacks on Israel since the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023. The Houthis’ alignment with other Iranian-backed proxies, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, underscores the interconnected nature of these conflicts.

The interception triggered air raid sirens but caused no damage, according to Israeli military sources. Defense Minister Israel Katz delivered a stern warning to Houthi leaders, stating they could face the same fate as key figures from Hamas and Hezbollah who have been targeted and killed in Israeli operations.

The Yemeni Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have intensified their attacks on Israel in recent months, a development that highlights Iran’s broader strategy of pressuring Israel through regional proxies. In response, Israel has targeted Houthi installations, reinforcing its resolve to neutralize threats across multiple fronts.

Katz’s remarks followed Israel’s confirmed responsibility for the August explosion in Tehran that killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. This revelation aligns with Israel’s aggressive strategy against Iranian-linked groups across the region. The killing of numerous Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon further underscores Israel’s commitment to weakening Tehran’s influence.

As fighting continues, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated progress in negotiations for the release of hostages held in Gaza. Approximately 100 hostages remain captive, with a significant portion believed dead. Meanwhile, Netanyahu emphasized Israel’s ambition to strengthen its ties with Arab nations, leveraging its role as a regional power to build on the success of the 2020 Abraham Accords.

The missile interception and subsequent warnings to the Houthis reflect the deepening complexity of the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape. With Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis coordinating under Iran’s aegis, Israel faces a multi-front conflict that tests its military capabilities and diplomatic strategies. However, Netanyahu’s focus on fostering alliances with moderate Arab nations could reshape regional dynamics, potentially isolating Iran and its proxies.

A Lebanese man recounts the horrors of Assad regime dungeons, where torture broke the will of detainees to resist false charges.

Eighteen years in the dark dungeons of the Assad regime’s prisons turned Lebanese journalist Muaz Merab’s life into a nightmare of unrelenting torture and anguish. Detained in 2006 while returning to Lebanon from Iraq, Merab endured horrors that remain etched into his mind—haunting reminders of the Assad regime’s machinery of terror.

Merab’s ordeal began in Douma, Damascus, when regime forces seized him on his way back home to Tripoli. At the time, he was a father of two young children, ages five and six. By the time of his release, he was a grandfather, having spent more than a third of his life confined to Syria’s infamous prisons.

Recounting his suffering, Merab shared chilling details of the torture tactics used by his captors. “They beat us with electric cables, tearing into our flesh with every strike,” he revealed. Forced nudity, beatings, and relentless psychological intimidation became the grim norm. Among the barbaric methods was the “wheel,” where detainees were tied to a wheel-like contraption, rendering them defenseless as they were mercilessly beaten.

The systemic brutality left prisoners no choice but to surrender to baseless accusations. “We accepted any charges without even reading them, just to stop the pain,” Merab said, his voice heavy with the weight of his memories.

His testimony sheds light on the pervasive and institutionalized nature of the Assad regime’s cruelty, already well-documented by survivors, rights groups, and international watchdogs. Yet, it serves as a sobering reminder of the lingering impunity enjoyed by those responsible for such atrocities.

Merab’s story is not only one of unimaginable suffering but also a testament to resilience in the face of dehumanization. His survival offers a grim glimpse into a regime that continues to wield torture as a tool of oppression, leaving countless untold stories in its wake.

Bashar al-Assad Granted Asylum in Russia After Rebel-Led Overthrow

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov confirmed that Moscow securely transported Bashar al-Assad to safety after his regime fell to a lightning rebel offensive. Assad, who had clung to power for over a decade during Syria’s devastating civil war, has now been granted asylum in Russia, marking a significant geopolitical shift.

Assad’s downfall is a blow to both Russia and Iran, who had heavily invested in propping up his regime despite mounting international opposition. Russia, which has backed Syria since the Cold War, framed Assad’s asylum as a calculated move to stabilize the situation. Ryabkov emphasized the operation’s extraordinary security measures but declined to reveal specifics.

Moscow’s decision to shelter Assad underscores its historical and strategic ties to Syria. However, this move also reignites international debate over accountability for war crimes. When pressed on whether Assad might face trial, Ryabkov dismissed the possibility, citing Russia’s non-membership in the International Criminal Court.

Meanwhile, Syria’s interim government, backed by rebel forces, announced the appointment of a caretaker prime minister to oversee the country’s transition. This new leadership presents a pivotal opportunity to rebuild a fractured nation, though significant challenges remain, including reconciling various factions and securing international support.

Russia’s actions highlight its broader strategy to protect its interests in the region while navigating a complex post-Assad landscape. This development also raises questions about the future of Russian-Iranian cooperation in Syria, as Tehran loses a key ally in Assad.

Beyond Syria, Ryabkov hinted at Moscow’s willingness to engage in further diplomatic moves, including the possibility of a new prisoner swap with the United States. Such gestures could signal an effort to reset relations amid heightened global tensions.

As Syria enters this uncertain chapter, the international community faces the dual challenge of fostering stability and ensuring accountability for past atrocities. For Russia, the Assad asylum decision cements its role as a power broker in the region, even as the dynamics of its influence evolve.

Israel and Hamas inch closer to a Gaza hostage deal amid international mediation and mounting U.S. pressure.

The recent meeting between Mossad Chief David Barnea and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani in Doha marks a significant push toward resolving the hostage crisis in Gaza. This second high-profile encounter, after their Vienna meeting in November, reflects intensified international mediation, particularly as the Biden administration works to hand over a less volatile situation to the incoming Trump administration.

Israel’s revised proposal for a hostage deal signals a pragmatic shift, with Hamas reportedly more open to compromise. This new willingness by both sides could expedite partial agreements. Despite initial skepticism, Israeli officials are now optimistic that progress is achievable.

The timing of this initiative aligns with U.S. interests, as outgoing and incoming administrations jointly urge regional stakeholders—Israel, Hamas, Egypt, and Qatar—to conclude a deal before Trump’s inauguration. These efforts underscore the geopolitical stakes tied to regional stability, U.S.-Israel relations, and Trump’s incoming Middle East policies.

The Cairo discussions, involving Shin Bet and IDF leaders, highlight Egypt’s role as a mediator. Meanwhile, Qatari involvement exemplifies Doha’s unique position in facilitating dialogue between Israel and Hamas, bolstered by its influence within the Gulf region.

Whether these developments culminate in a sustainable agreement remains uncertain, but the pressure from Washington and coordinated diplomacy across multiple fronts provide a promising pathway for de-escalation in Gaza. The coming days will determine whether regional and global actors can bridge the gap to an enduring resolution.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken seeks regional consensus on Syria’s transition after Assad’s downfall.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has embarked on a pivotal diplomatic mission to Jordan and Turkey, aiming to consolidate regional alignment on Syria’s future following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad. His trip comes as Syria navigates a critical juncture, with rebel forces toppling the decades-long Assad regime in a rapid two-week offensive, ending a brutal era of autocracy.

In Aqaba, Jordan, and Ankara, Turkey, Blinken will engage with key Arab and Muslim leaders to discuss strategies for a stable and inclusive transition in Syria. Central to his agenda are safeguarding minority rights, ensuring humanitarian access, and preventing Syria from devolving into a haven for terrorism or a chemical weapons threat.

This diplomatic outreach underscores the complexities of Syria’s post-Assad landscape. Islamist faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, is asserting control while foreign actors like Turkey, Gulf nations, and Western powers scramble to influence the country’s future trajectory. The OPCW is also keeping a close watch on Syria’s chemical weapons, with plans to assess compliance and recommend next steps.

Despite regional and international optimism, challenges loom. While Turkey appears to align with the emerging government’s Islamist tendencies, Gulf states remain wary of its ideological direction. Moreover, Blinken’s efforts face contrasting perspectives within U.S. policy, as President-elect Donald Trump’s remarks on disengagement from Syria highlight a divergence in strategy.

With Syria’s devastating civil war claiming over 500,000 lives and displacing millions, its transition marks a critical test for regional stability and international cooperation. Blinken’s visit signifies a U.S. commitment to guiding this process while balancing a myriad of interests in a fragmented and volatile region.

As Bashar al-Assad flees to Russia, survivors recount horrific torture and celebrate a future without his regime.

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has sparked a mix of euphoria and heartbreak across Syria. For many, the dictator’s fall signals the end of decades of oppressive rule, yet for others, it brings painful reminders of the lives destroyed under his government. Survivors of Assad’s brutal detention system and families of the disappeared are grappling with the complexities of this historic moment.

Anwar Etnesh, a resident of Daraa, is one among countless Syrians still searching for loved ones who vanished during the civil war. His cousin disappeared 13 years ago, swept up by regime forces during the early days of the anti-government protests. Now, as prisoners are freed by the militias who ousted Assad, Etnesh is frantically searching for any sign of his relative among the liberated.

The staggering human cost of Assad’s reign is reflected in the statistics: nearly 137,000 people disappeared into the regime’s detention system, and over 15,000 reportedly died under torture, according to rights groups. Survivors, like Basheer Mansour, recount harrowing ordeals of beatings, sleep deprivation, and electric shocks in the regime’s infamous prisons. Mansour, now paralyzed due to injuries inflicted during his imprisonment, recalls the unimaginable pain inflicted by prison guards and even hospital staff.

For Mansour and others, the fall of Assad brings a glimmer of hope but also a reminder of what was lost. Living in exile in the United States, Mansour dreams of returning to Syria, even as he acknowledges the challenges of rebuilding a fractured nation.

The road ahead for Syria remains uncertain. The coalition of militias led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has announced interim leadership but offered little clarity on governance plans. While many Syrians celebrate the absence of Assad’s soldiers and institutions, the shadow of extremism and the question of stability loom large.

For families like Etnesh’s, the immediate focus is closure—finding answers about those who disappeared into the regime’s abyss. For Syria as a whole, the challenge lies in reconciling with its past while charting a course toward an inclusive and peaceful future. In the streets of Damascus and beyond, the relief of liberation is palpable, but so too is the weight of rebuilding a nation haunted by years of pain and loss.