U.S. intelligence officials have warned of increasing efforts by foreign adversaries, particularly Russia, Iran, and China, to sow discord and potentially incite violence. The declassified assessment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, released Tuesday, paints a concerning picture of election interference aimed at undermining public confidence in democratic institutions and creating post-election chaos.
According to the report, Russia is the most active among these foreign actors, with intelligence agencies “increasingly confident” that Moscow is planning to instigate violence as part of its broader strategy to exploit divisions in American society. Iran is also reportedly considering similar actions, raising the specter of foreign involvement in domestic unrest.
A senior U.S. intelligence official, speaking anonymously to provide further context, stressed that adversaries might escalate their operations in the critical period after polls close. The focus of these efforts, the official noted, would be on amplifying claims of election irregularities and stoking confusion as state and local officials work to certify the results. “Foreign-driven or amplified violent protests, violence, or physical threats to election workers could challenge the certification process,” the official warned.
Russia’s apparent strategy is to deepen internal divisions, with officials suggesting Moscow views a potential victory by Democratic candidate Kamala Harris as a prime opportunity to more aggressively undermine the U.S. political system. Intelligence officials believe Russia would prefer the reelection of former president Donald Trump, whom they see as less antagonistic toward Moscow, despite the complexities of his prior administration’s sanctions policy.
Iran, meanwhile, appears to be focusing its efforts on damaging Trump’s prospects, while China is believed to be targeting specific congressional and state candidates rather than the presidential race. Although Beijing denies any involvement, U.S. officials continue to monitor China’s influence campaigns, particularly around issues like Taiwan.
Beyond disinformation campaigns, there are concerns that foreign actors may attempt to orchestrate physical disruptions. The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has expressed fears that adversaries may target critical infrastructure—such as power grids or transportation systems—to induce panic or hinder the electoral process. The agency is also concerned about potential ransomware attacks on local election offices.
“We’re going to see a voting location lose power,” a senior CISA official warned, adding that while direct attacks on voting systems are less likely, the American public should “expect disruptions.” These disruptions, coupled with a wave of disinformation, could undermine the integrity of the election, even if the voting process itself remains secure.
Despite these alarming scenarios, election officials insist they are prepared. Steve Simon, Minnesota’s secretary of state and president of the National Association of Secretaries of State, reassured the public that election infrastructure is being fortified to withstand potential threats. “Chief election officials throughout the United States have worked really tirelessly and consistently to mitigate risks,” Simon said, emphasizing that states are treating election security with the highest priority.
However, the intelligence community’s assessment highlights the increasing sophistication and adaptability of foreign influence operations. In one recent example, Russian-linked actors posted false allegations against Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz on social media. In another case, Russian intelligence sought to recruit an American to organize protests, underscoring the risk that foreign adversaries could exploit domestic political tensions.
As U.S. adversaries work to exploit societal divisions, intelligence officials and cybersecurity experts alike warn that even seemingly benign disinformation campaigns can escalate into real-world violence. “The tactics used to undermine confidence in democratic institutions can lead to violence, even if not deliberately called for,” a CISA official noted, illustrating how foreign influence efforts are not just a digital threat but also a physical one.
With less than two weeks before Americans cast their ballots, the growing threats from Russia, Iran, and China serve as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities in an increasingly interconnected and polarized world. The U.S. government and state election officials are bracing for disruptions, but the challenge lies in managing both the tangible risks and the intangible impacts on the nation’s democratic processes.
