Air Force General James Hecker warned that Russia’s military is now larger and more powerful than before its controversial invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Speaking at the Air & Space Forces Association’s annual Air, Space & Cyber Conference, Hecker described how despite suffering heavy losses on the battlefield, Russia’s armed forces have not only endured but expanded—a development that could dramatically alter the trajectory of the conflict and challenge global stability.
“Russia is getting larger, and they’re getting better than they were before. They are actually larger than they were when [the invasion] kicked off,” Hecker told reporters, painting a picture of a resilient Russian war machine that is far from crumbling under pressure.
This growth comes at a staggering cost. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently estimated that over 350,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded since the invasion began—a casualty rate that would cripple most military forces. Yet Russia’s resolve appears unshaken. On Monday, President Vladimir Putin ordered an increase of 180,000 active-duty troops, bringing the total to a jaw-dropping 1.5 million soldiers—cementing Russia’s place as the world’s second-largest military, right behind China.
The expansion signals a troubling reality: Russia is not backing down. According to Hecker, the U.S. and its allies will likely need to contend with an emboldened and growing Russian military for years to come. “Russia is going to be something that we’re going to have to deal with for a long time, no matter how this thing ends,” Hecker stated, implying that this conflict could outlast the current geopolitical landscape.
However, some experts argue that Russia’s troop surge may not be the power move it seems. William Pomeranz, a senior scholar at the Kennan Institute, sees it as a sign of weakness. “This move suggests that Vladimir Putin is losing the war,” he told VOA. According to Pomeranz, this troop expansion is a desperate attempt to replenish a depleted fighting force, revealing cracks in Russia’s military capabilities.
Despite Russia’s growing ground presence, its dominance in the skies has been anything but assured. According to Hecker, Ukraine has shot down more than 100 Russian aircraft, putting a significant dent in Moscow’s aerial superiority. In contrast, Russia has been far less successful at neutralizing Ukrainian planes. The result? A stalemate in the air, with both sides wary of crossing each other’s boundaries.
This aerial standoff has turned the war into a grim display of massive attrition, as Hecker described: “Cities being demolished, a lot of civilian casualties.” The conflict has become a brutal grind, with no side able to gain a decisive edge in the skies.
Faced with the high cost of war, Ukraine has turned to creative, low-cost solutions to maintain its defense. The reliance on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, has proven to be a game-changer for Kyiv. Instead of firing $1 million missiles to take down relatively cheap UAVs, Ukraine is flipping the script—something that the U.S. military is keen to learn from.
“We have to get on the right side of the cost curve,” Hecker explained, underscoring the need for more efficient and affordable defense systems in the long run.
The war is also driving innovations in space and cyber warfare. General Chance Saltzman, the U.S. Space Force chief, revealed that satellite imagery and advanced analytics have become invaluable for military intelligence. Saltzman pointed to a pilot program using commercial satellites that has proven far more cost-effective than traditional drone surveillance.
In fact, during the U.S. military’s withdrawal from air bases in Niger this summer, the program helped maintain crucial situational awareness. While the satellite data wasn’t in real-time, Saltzman stressed that it was a viable alternative to the more expensive and limited MQ-9 drones.
What’s Next?
As both sides adapt and evolve their strategies, the conflict in Ukraine shows no signs of abating. Russia’s expanding military, combined with its tactical shifts, suggests that Moscow is preparing for a prolonged struggle—one that could reshape the balance of power in Eastern Europe and beyond.
With Ukraine innovating on the battlefield and the U.S. exploring new, cost-effective defense strategies, the conflict may also provide a preview of the future of warfare—one where drones, space technology, and cyber operations play increasingly pivotal roles.
How long can both sides keep this war machine running? And what will be the ultimate cost?
