The deadly car bomb attack in Manbij that claimed 15 lives and wounded 15 more is the latest sign that post-Assad Syria is spiraling further into unpredictable and violent instability. Just three days after another bombing in the city, the streets of Manbij—once a key battleground between ISIS, Kurdish forces, and Turkish-backed militias—have again become a flashpoint for terror and retribution.

With no immediate claims of responsibility, the attack raises questions about the fractured power struggle gripping Syria since Bashar al-Assad’s downfall in December. The Turkey-backed takeover of Manbij in December, following a retreat by the Kurdish-led SDF, already set the stage for a new era of violence. The question now is: who is behind this attack, and what does it signal for Syria’s future?

The usual suspects include remnants of ISIS sleeper cells, Kurdish insurgents seeking revenge, or even rival factions within the new Turkish-backed administration. The rapid collapse of Assad’s rule, culminating in the HTS-led offensive that ousted him on December 8, has left Syria without a clear center of power. With Abu Mohammed al-Julani now claiming Syria’s transitional presidency, the country is a battlefield of factions, each vying for dominance.

The implications of this attack go beyond Manbij. Whoever is responsible is sending a clear message: Syria’s war is far from over, and the post-Assad era could be even bloodier than the one that came before it. The world should brace for more bombings, assassinations, and territorial shifts—because Syria’s new rulers are already at war with the ghosts of the past and the uncertainty of the future.

The European Union redeploys its Rafah mission amid delicate regional dynamics and lingering uncertainties.

The European Union is reviving its border assistance mission at the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt to support the fragile ceasefire. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas emphasized the mission’s importance in facilitating medical evacuations for wounded Gazans and rebuilding trust in the region. This marks a return for EUBAM Rafah, first established in 2005 but suspended in 2007 due to instability following Hamas’ takeover of Gaza.

The mission’s return is backed by requests from Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and Egypt. However, the arrangement places stringent international controls on the crossing to regulate movement and prevent the passage of weapons, while ensuring humanitarian access. Talks with Egypt and Israel aim to implement these measures alongside Palestinian Authority participation.

Despite optimism, the challenges from 2005-2006—when the agreement faltered due to Hamas’ rise—remain fresh in memory. The mission’s effectiveness depends on coordination, regional stability, and adherence to strict security protocols. While the EU’s return signals hope for bolstered international engagement, past failures underline the complexities of balancing security with humanitarian priorities in one of the world’s most contentious regions.

UN calls for the immediate release of detained aid workers as the humanitarian crisis in Yemen deepens amid increased tensions and political pressure.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels have detained an additional seven UN employees, escalating their targeting of aid workers amid one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the detentions, urging their “immediate and unconditional” release and warning of the dire consequences for millions of vulnerable Yemenis.

The recent arrests add to a troubling pattern of Houthi actions against humanitarian organizations. Since mid-2022, dozens of aid workers from UN agencies and other NGOs have been detained by the Iran-backed rebels. This has severely hampered relief efforts in a country where over 18 million people rely on aid for survival, according to the UN.

Guterres underscored the impact of the detentions, stating that they “negatively affect our ability to assist millions of people in need in Yemen.” Following the latest incidents, the UN has suspended all official movements in Houthi-controlled areas, further disrupting aid delivery in regions suffering from acute food shortages, lack of medical care, and widespread displacement.

The Houthis’ actions come amid heightened tensions following US President Donald Trump’s decision to relist the group as a foreign terrorist organization. This designation, part of Trump’s broader Middle East strategy, could restrict US funding for UN and NGO operations in Yemen, compounding the already dire situation.

Analysts suggest the detentions are a calculated move by the Houthis to leverage international pressure against the US designation. Mohammed al-Basha, a risk advisor, described the arrests as an “expected reaction,” aimed at forcing the international community to influence the Trump administration’s policies.

The timing is also significant, as the Houthis have recently made conciliatory gestures following a ceasefire in Gaza, where the group had launched attacks in solidarity with Palestinians. These gestures, including the release of a 25-member international ship crew, signal a strategic balancing act by the Houthis as they navigate domestic and international pressures.

The Houthis’ actions against aid workers are part of a broader pattern of abuses, including arbitrary detentions, kidnappings, and torture, as reported by human rights organizations. In June, the group detained 13 UN staff, including members of the Human Rights Office, and over 50 NGO personnel, accusing them of espionage—a claim dismissed by the UN as baseless.

In August, the Houthis forcibly seized control of the UNHCR office, confiscating documents and property before returning them later that month. Such incidents highlight the group’s ongoing attempts to undermine international humanitarian efforts while maintaining control over aid operations in their territory.

The detentions underscore the challenges facing aid organizations in Yemen, where the conflict between the Houthis and a Saudi-led coalition has created a protracted humanitarian disaster. Although hostilities have subsided since a UN-brokered ceasefire in 2022, the situation remains volatile, with millions of civilians caught in the crossfire.

The Houthis’ actions also risk alienating international donors and agencies, potentially exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. As Guterres noted, targeting aid workers not only undermines relief efforts but also erodes trust in a region desperate for stability and support.

While the UN works to secure the release of the detained workers, the broader challenge remains ensuring the safety and effectiveness of humanitarian operations in Houthi-controlled areas. This will require sustained international pressure on the Houthis, as well as diplomatic efforts to address the underlying political and security issues fueling the conflict.

The fate of the detained aid workers serves as a grim reminder of the complexities and human cost of Yemen’s ongoing war, and the urgent need for a coordinated global response to alleviate suffering in the region.

Allegations of Lebanese military officials leaking classified information to Hezbollah raise concerns over ceasefire stability and regional security.

Allegations have surfaced that senior Lebanese military officials, including the head of military intelligence for southern Lebanon, Suhil Bahij Gharb, have leaked sensitive classified information to Hezbollah. According to an intelligence report cited by The Times, Gharb, while stationed in a US-France-UNIFIL war room, provided intel that allowed Hezbollah to relocate personnel and weapons ahead of Israeli searches.

This revelation comes at a critical juncture as a fragile ceasefire holds between Israel and Hezbollah following over a year of hostilities. The reported leaks highlight Hezbollah’s deep infiltration of Lebanese military ranks, allegedly enabled by senior Hezbollah commander Wafiq Safa, who reportedly ensured Gharb’s presence in sensitive security discussions.

The leaked intelligence reportedly enabled Hezbollah to conceal key operations and thwart international monitoring efforts led by UNIFIL and the Lebanese army. The intelligence report emphasized how Hezbollah used these leaks to evade scrutiny south of the Litani River, a region where its activities are supposed to be restricted under the terms of the UN-brokered ceasefire.

Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut, noted that despite the Lebanese army’s ties with Western powers like the United States, cooperation between individual officers and Hezbollah remains pervasive.

The alleged leaks pose significant security risks, particularly for Israel, which has faced escalating threats from Hezbollah since October 2023. Israeli operations in southern Lebanon uncovered plans by Hezbollah for large-scale attacks, potentially mirroring Hamas’s October 7 massacre in southern Israel.

These revelations threaten the already tenuous ceasefire agreement, with experts warning of potential renewed hostilities. Hezbollah’s breaches, coupled with its access to sensitive intelligence, could enable it to intensify its operations along Israel’s northern border, undermining stability in the region.

UNIFIL and the Lebanese army, tasked with preventing Hezbollah’s military build-up in southern Lebanon, face increased scrutiny following these revelations. The allegations raise questions about the effectiveness of international monitoring and peacekeeping efforts in curbing Hezbollah’s activities.

Hezbollah’s deep entrenchment in Lebanon’s political and military systems has been a cornerstone of its survival strategy. The group’s influence extends beyond its military presence, leveraging political gains amassed over the past three decades.

However, this latest intelligence breach could escalate tensions, particularly as the international community, including the United States and Israel, reassess their engagement with Lebanon. Any renewed conflict risks further destabilizing a region already fraught with political and economic turmoil.

The allegations underscore the need for greater oversight of international peacekeeping operations and a reassessment of Lebanon’s internal dynamics. The fragile ceasefire remains at risk, with heightened concerns that Hezbollah could leverage its access to sensitive military intelligence to launch new offensives.

As the situation develops, the international community will closely monitor whether these revelations spur stronger action against Hezbollah’s growing influence in Lebanon and its ongoing threats to regional stability.

A breakdown of the ceasefire agreement and the exchange of hostages and prisoners between Hamas and Israel.

The Gaza ceasefire agreement has initiated a significant hostage and prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel, marking a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict. Over the first six weeks of the truce, 33 Israeli hostages are to be released in phases, with corresponding releases of Palestinian prisoners by Israel.

The First Exchange
On the first day of the ceasefire, Hamas released three Israeli women—Romi Gonen, Doron Steinbrecher, and Emily Damari. In return, Israel freed 90 Palestinian prisoners, including 69 women and 21 teenage boys. Many of these prisoners were recently detained and had not yet been charged or tried.

Who Remains Held in Gaza?
At the start of the truce, approximately 97 Israeli hostages remained in Gaza. Israeli authorities estimate that about half of them are alive, though this has not been confirmed by Hamas. During the first phase of the agreement, Hamas is set to release hostages considered vulnerable, including women, children, older men, and those who are ill or injured.

Prisoners to Be Released by Israel
Israel has committed to releasing nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the hostages. This group includes:

• 1,167 individuals detained in Gaza during the war.
• 737 prisoners from the West Bank, Jerusalem, or Gaza, including some convicted of attacks, others held in administrative detention without charges, and members of militant groups.

The Process of Exchange
Hostages released by Hamas are handed to Red Cross officials, who then transfer them to the Israeli military at designated locations near Gaza’s borders. Palestinian prisoners released by Israel are transported to the West Bank, Gaza, or third countries, such as Egypt, with some potentially resettling in Qatar, Turkey, or Algeria.

The Broader Ceasefire Context
During the initial phase of the ceasefire, the Israeli army will withdraw from specific positions in Gaza, enabling displaced Palestinians in northern Gaza to return. A second phase is anticipated, which could involve the exchange of remaining hostages and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, contingent on further negotiations.

The ongoing exchanges highlight the complex and fragile nature of the ceasefire. While the process offers hope for humanitarian relief, the broader political and security implications remain uncertain. Both sides face intense scrutiny from their respective populations and international observers as the ceasefire unfolds.

This exchange underscores the deep human and political stakes in the conflict, serving as a reminder of the urgent need for durable solutions to the decades-long crisis.

U.S. reaffirms unwavering support for Israel, as Trump’s administration eyes a broader Middle East peace agenda.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Mike Waltz, has issued a firm declaration against Hamas, vowing that the militant group will never govern Gaza. Speaking on CBS’ Face the Nation, Waltz underscored the incoming administration’s unwavering commitment to Israel and its broader vision for Middle East peace through the Abraham Accords.

“Hamas will never govern Gaza. That is completely unacceptable,” Waltz stated, reaffirming the Trump administration’s stance. He warned that any attempt by Hamas to renege on the current ceasefire-for-hostages agreement would result in U.S. support for Israel to take decisive action. “If Hamas backs out or moves the goalpost, we will support Israel in doing what it has to do,” he added, emphasizing that the administration’s priority is Israel’s security and stability.

The remarks came as a ceasefire agreement in Gaza came into effect, with Hamas pledging to uphold its terms while warning that any Israeli violations could jeopardize the fragile truce. Hamas spokesman Abu Ubaida urged mediators to ensure Israel’s compliance, reflecting the fraught nature of the agreement.

Progress on Middle East Normalization

In addition to the immediate crisis in Gaza, Waltz expressed optimism about advancing a historic normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia as part of the Abraham Accords. This ambitious effort seeks to expand the circle of peace in the Middle East, building on agreements brokered during Trump’s previous tenure. Waltz described this potential deal as a game-changer for the region, offering Israel increased security and economic ties while fostering broader stability.

The Trump administration’s approach signals a dual strategy: supporting Israel’s hardline stance against Hamas while pursuing long-term peace through regional diplomacy. By tying U.S. support for Israel’s security with broader normalization goals, the administration aims to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.

As the ceasefire holds for now, all eyes will be on whether Hamas abides by its terms and whether Trump’s administration can navigate the complex dynamics of the region to achieve lasting peace. Waltz’s message, however, leaves no doubt: the U.S. stands firmly behind Israel in its quest to ensure that Hamas will never regain political or military dominance in Gaza.

Ceasefire implementation and hostages’ release depend on Trump’s next moves

Israel’s Cabinet has approved a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal brokered through a year of negotiations involving the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt. The agreement, endorsed by President Biden in May, was finalized Saturday, shortly before Trump’s inauguration, placing the responsibility for implementation on his administration.

The deal’s initial phase involves a halt to hostilities, withdrawal of Israeli forces, increased humanitarian aid, and limited prisoner exchanges. However, subsequent phases, including full hostage release and Gaza reconstruction, remain undecided. Trump’s administration faces the task of maintaining the ceasefire’s momentum while negotiating further terms.

Prime Minister Netanyahu stated he secured U.S. guarantees to support Israel should talks falter, but skepticism persists over Trump’s commitment to long-term solutions in Gaza. Critics worry his focus on regional deals, like adding Saudi Arabia to the Abraham Accords, may overshadow the agreement’s humanitarian aspects.

The deal’s fate now depends on Trump’s ability to balance U.S.-Israel ties, pressure Hamas, and advance peace while navigating complex regional dynamics.

Negotiations for a phased truce in Gaza approach final agreement, promising hostages’ release, troop withdrawals, and humanitarian aid.

Efforts to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas are nearing a critical turning point, with U.S. and Qatari officials expressing cautious optimism about an imminent deal. The proposed agreement, which has seen months of fraught negotiations, aims to halt the fighting in Gaza and address key humanitarian concerns.

The ceasefire framework envisions phased steps: Hamas would release hostages captured during its October 2023 assault, while Israel would free Palestinian prisoners. Israeli troops would begin a gradual withdrawal from Gaza, facilitating the return of displaced Palestinians and a surge in international humanitarian aid.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Qatari officials have called the negotiations the closest they’ve ever been to a breakthrough. However, significant challenges remain, particularly over Israel’s security assurances and Hamas’s agreement to the final terms.

Despite the progress, violence persists. Israeli airstrikes continued to pound Gaza on Tuesday, targeting areas like Deir al-Balah and Rafah, killing at least 15 people. The attacks underscore the fragility of the talks and the urgent need for a resolution.

Humanitarian conditions in Gaza are dire, with over 46,500 fatalities reported and most of the 2.3 million residents displaced. The United Nations has pledged to ramp up aid deliveries once a ceasefire is implemented, but access to border crossings and security concerns remain significant obstacles.

The Biden administration, in its final weeks, is intensifying diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Blinken has outlined a post-ceasefire plan involving international governance in Gaza, with the Palestinian Authority playing a leading role and Arab states ensuring security.

The proposed framework aims to unify Gaza and the West Bank under a future Palestinian state, a contentious point that Israel has historically opposed. Trump’s Middle East team, led by envoy Steve Witkoff, has been briefed on the negotiations, signaling potential continuity in U.S. policy.

While the ceasefire deal represents a significant diplomatic achievement, its success hinges on careful implementation and mutual trust—a tall order in the region’s volatile context. If finalized, the agreement could provide a roadmap for long-term stability and reconstruction in Gaza, but it will require unprecedented cooperation from all stakeholders to succeed.