New Missile Plan by US-Japan Eyes Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

The United States and Japan are finalizing plans to deploy advanced missile systems along Japan’s Nansei island chain, a strategic move aimed at countering a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The joint operation, involving the placement of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), is part of broader military preparations to deter Beijing’s aggressive posture in the region.

The plan, expected to be completed by December, represents the first coordinated U.S.-Japan military operation explicitly designed to address a Taiwan-China conflict. It would include the establishment of temporary bases on the Nansei islands, supported logistically by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces. The island chain, stretching from Japan’s main islands to just 200 kilometers from Taiwan, has long been a geopolitical flashpoint.

The HIMARS systems, which have proven effective in Ukraine, would serve dual purposes in the region: targeting Chinese warships and bolstering the defense of key positions. Analysts like Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution emphasize their anti-ship capabilities, particularly in countering China’s growing naval presence.

China, which possesses the world’s largest naval force with over 370 ships, has conducted extensive military exercises simulating an invasion of Taiwan. In a forum hosted by Brookings, Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, stressed the urgency of preparing for potential conflict, citing a record summer rehearsal by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) involving 152 vessels.

HIMARS systems on the Nansei islands could intercept Chinese amphibious landing ships, destroyers, and troop concentrations near Taiwan, according to RAND Corporation researcher Timothy Heath. These deployments would also extend the U.S. military’s reach into the first island chain—a strategic barrier potentially limiting China’s access to the Pacific.

China has sharply criticized the U.S.-Japan initiative, accusing it of exacerbating tensions and destabilizing regional peace. “China opposes relevant countries using the Taiwan question as an excuse to strengthen military deployment,” said a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson.

Russia, a close ally of Beijing, has issued stronger warnings. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova described the missile deployment as a “real threat” to Russia’s security, vowing proportional responses, including the potential placement of short- and intermediate-range missiles in Asia. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov echoed these sentiments, urging Washington to reconsider the plan.

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently reaffirmed support for Beijing, stating that Taiwan is “part of China” and justifying Chinese military exercises near the island as a “reasonable policy.”

Learning From Ukraine’s War

The deployment of HIMARS reflects lessons drawn from the ongoing war in Ukraine. U.S. and allied forces have observed the weapon system’s effectiveness against Russian forces, particularly in targeting supply routes and troop concentrations. Analysts believe similar tactics could be applied to counter PLA movements in a Taiwan contingency.

Additionally, the U.S. is extending its military reach beyond Japan. Plans are reportedly underway to position long-range firing units of the Multi-Domain Task Force (MDTF), which includes HIMARS, in the Philippines. These moves align with efforts to fortify the Philippines, Japan, and Indonesia as part of the “first island chain,” a defensive line China perceives as a major barrier to its maritime ambitions.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently concluded a nine-day tour of the Indo-Pacific, securing commitments from regional partners to strengthen military ties. Japan agreed to expand its role in annual trilateral training exercises with the U.S. and Australia, while the Philippines signed an intelligence-sharing pact to enhance military coordination.

Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, underscored the strategic value of these deployments, particularly for deterring Chinese activities in the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea. However, he warned that Beijing would likely respond with increased military readiness and more assertive actions in the coming years.

Beijing continues to view Taiwan as a renegade province and has ramped up military provocations near the island. For the U.S. and its allies, bolstering defenses along the first island chain is seen as critical to maintaining regional stability.

Despite the escalating rhetoric, both sides remain cautious about triggering open conflict. Yet, the U.S.-Japan missile deployment marks a significant escalation in the geopolitical chess game over Taiwan’s future—a flashpoint that could reshape the Indo-Pacific’s security landscape.