Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Put Global Energy Supply Under Pressure
The Strait of Hormuz has not formally closed, yet normal commercial navigation through the world’s most important oil passage has almost disappeared. Only 12 trackable commodity vessels crossed during the weekend, Reuters reported, compared with roughly 125 large commercial vessels a day before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28.
The surprising part is that oil is still moving. Tankers are switching off transponders, taking greater risks and operating through a maritime system that has become less visible, more expensive and harder to insure.
Saudi exports have recovered above four million barrels a day in September, according to provisional Kpler data, but the rebound exposes a new vulnerability: Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline have pushed more crude back toward Hormuz precisely when Riyadh was trying to reduce dependence on it.
Resilience is concealing fragility
The market has avoided an immediate supply collapse because producers, traders and shipowners are improvising. That resilience should not be confused with security. The Wall Street Journal reports that tanker scarcity and longer voyages are driving record charter costs. When a ship spends more time rerouting, waiting or conducting shuttle operations, it cannot carry another cargo elsewhere.
The result is a freight shock that can survive even if crude prices ease. Refiners pay more to secure ships, insurers charge for war exposure, and consumers eventually meet those costs at fuel stations and through transported food prices.
For the Horn of Africa, this is not distant market turbulence. Somaliland, Somalia, Djibouti and Ethiopia depend heavily on imported fuel and food. A shipping system operating without normal tracking and with limited spare capacity increases the risk of delays, sudden price adjustments and opportunistic speculation.
WARYATV Assessment
Hormuz is functioning, but it is no longer functioning normally. The most dangerous assumption is that continued exports prove the crisis is contained. They prove only that commercial actors are absorbing extraordinary risks. A strike on a tanker, further damage to Saudi bypass infrastructure or a sustained interruption near Bab el-Mandeb could turn managed scarcity into a global supply emergency.
