Ethiopia’s War Is Becoming a Contest Among Regional Powers
Renewed war in Ethiopia is no longer only a confrontation between the federal government and Tigrayan forces. It is developing inside a broader contest involving Eritrea, Egypt, Sudan, Gulf powers and competing strategies for the Red Sea.
Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan of supporting the rebel alliance. All three governments deny the allegations. Those denials are important: open-source evidence has not established the full scale or nature of external assistance.
Old alliances have reversed
Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia’s federal forces during the 2020–2022 Tigray war. Relations have since deteriorated, demonstrating how quickly wartime partnerships can collapse when borders, influence and security interests diverge.
Egypt remains locked in disagreement with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Sudan has its own civil war and competing accusations involving Ethiopian support for hostile forces.
The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel also maintain different interests across the Horn and Red Sea.
Somaliland’s strategic exposure
Somaliland has partnerships with the UAE and Israel while seeking a deeper commercial relationship with Ethiopia. Those ties create opportunities, but they can also produce assumptions that Hargeisa belongs to a particular regional camp.
Somaliland’s safest position is corridor neutrality: Berbera should remain commercially available under transparent rules without becoming an instrument in Ethiopia’s confrontation with neighbouring states.
WARYATV Assessment
The greatest danger is the creation of linked proxy relationships. Once local groups receive external financing, weapons or intelligence, political settlement becomes harder because foreign sponsors acquire their own interests in the conflict.
Somaliland should avoid unverified accusations and unnecessary public alignment. It should strengthen border monitoring, protect strategic infrastructure and establish quiet communication with all relevant neighbours.
Ethiopia’s conflict may increase Somaliland’s value as a stable maritime partner. It could also pull Somaliland into rivalries it cannot control. Strategic importance is beneficial only when accompanied by disciplined neutrality.
