The clandestine encounter in Dubai between two of Somaliland’s most influential former presidents, Dahir Riyale Kahin and Muse Bihi Abdi—the country’s “colonels”—is far more consequential than the polite language of “discussing the situation in the country” suggests.
Meetings of this caliber do not occur spontaneously, nor do they happen outside Hargeisa unless the stakes demand absolute secrecy.
This is not nostalgia, nor a reunion of elder statesmen; it is a calculated political alignment with the potential to reshape the national landscape ahead of the 2029 election cycle.
At the center of this emerging pact is Muse Bihi’s determination to propel Mohamoud Hassan Saajin, his former Minister of Commerce, into position as Kulmiye’s next presidential candidate.
Saajin’s candidacy has already divided the party internally, but Bihi’s pursuit of Riyale’s backing reveals a deeper strategic agenda.
Saajin and Riyale both hail from Awdal—a region whose political marginalization has festered for decades—and their shared clan identity gives Riyale immense influence over a critical electoral bloc.
By presenting Saajin as the long-denied representative of Awdal’s political aspirations, Bihi appears to be crafting a powerful bargain: deliver Awdal’s vote in exchange for elevating one of its own to the pinnacle of national leadership.
Such a strategy could solidify Bihi’s long-term grip on Kulmiye even after his presidency, anchoring his faction with a loyal successor.
Yet Riyale’s role extends far beyond tribal calculus. He remains one of Somaliland’s most respected former leaders, remembered for a period of political stability, disciplined institutions, and an intelligence service that functioned without clan interference.
His legacy stands in stark contrast to the current climate—fractured by rising clan tensions, an emboldened traditional leadership class, and expanding instability in regions like Saylac.
Riyale’s endorsement therefore offers not simply votes, but a veneer of legitimacy and a symbolic return to order.
For many Somalilanders frustrated with deteriorating governance norms, a Riyale-influenced candidate represents a plausible path back to the disciplined statecraft of the past.
The real question is what this alliance actually represents. Is it a transactional coalition built on securing Awdal’s vote, or is it a deeper attempt to reassert the authority of Somaliland’s old guard, a generation shaped by military discipline and intelligence structures capable of enforcing national cohesion?
If Riyale and Bihi share a fear that the political fragmentation of recent years—magnified by clan disputes, weakened institutions, and escalating regional instability—is eroding the foundations of the state, their pact may reflect a coordinated effort to intervene before the situation spirals beyond control.
This meeting is not about the 2029 elections alone; it is about who will define the next decade of Somaliland’s political order.
The two colonels, each forged in eras of centralized authority and institutional strength, may be preparing to reinsert themselves into a political arena increasingly dominated by factionalism they believe threatens national unity.
Whether the price of their collaboration will stabilize Somaliland or simply concentrate political power in a new, opaque alliance is the unanswered—and most critical—question now hanging over the country.
