Donald Trump is once again testing the outer edges of American diplomacy — this time by rolling out the red carpet for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a NATO ally turned perennial irritant who could soon walk away with the very prize Washington once stripped from Ankara: the F-35 fighter jet.
The symbolism of Erdogan stepping back into the White House after five years is heavy. In 2019, Turkey was booted from the F-35 program after buying Russia’s S-400 air defense system, a purchase U.S. officials warned could compromise the stealth jet’s secrets. Yet Trump, never bound by institutional memory, now signals that the “hold” may be lifted. Erdogan, who claims Turkey already paid $1.4 billion for jets it never received, wants vindication and hardware.
This is not just about planes. It’s about Trump’s instinct to remake alliances on his own terms. He has long described Erdogan as a “friend” and sees Ankara as indispensable in shaping endgames in Ukraine, Syria, and Gaza. To Trump, Erdogan is not a liability but a lever — a strongman who can move in spaces the U.S. cannot.
The timing is combustible. Erdogan arrives in Washington fresh from using the UN stage to accuse Israel of “genocide” in Gaza — words guaranteed to enrage Jerusalem and complicate Trump’s delicate balancing act with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Trump has urged Netanyahu to be “reasonable” toward Ankara, an appeal that will sound to some like pressure on Israel to swallow Erdogan’s barbs in the name of realpolitik.
At the same time, the Syria file looms. The fall of Bashar al-Assad last December created a power vacuum Erdogan is exploiting.
Turkish-backed opposition groups now dominate parts of northern Syria, and Ankara is flexing influence as European and U.S. leaders, including Trump, tentatively embrace Syria’s new president Ahmad al-Sharaa — himself a former jihadist commander turned statesman.
Critics argue that Trump is gambling with U.S. security by re-entertaining Turkey’s place in the F-35 program while Ankara still runs Russian systems. Human rights groups warn that a White House embrace will whitewash Erdogan’s authoritarian record, from jailing journalists to throttling dissent. But Trump sees something else: leverage. In a world where NATO unity is strained, Ukraine grinds on, and Gaza bleeds, Erdogan can be both disruptor and broker.
What emerges from Thursday’s meeting could reset the arc of U.S.–Turkish relations. If Trump delivers on fighter jets and Erdogan tones down his anti-Western theatrics in return, the two may succeed in presenting their partnership as pragmatic strength. But if Washington is seen as rewarding Ankara while Erdogan blasts Israel from U.S. soil, Trump could hand adversaries in Moscow, Tehran — and even within NATO — an argument that America no longer draws red lines, it blurs them.
The question is whether this gamble restores U.S. leverage, or merely shows the world that Erdogan, once sanctioned and sidelined, can play both East and West and still walk away with the prize.
