As President Trump courts Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati leaders, Israelis fear Washington may broker deals with Tehran and the Gulf that undercut Jerusalem’s security interests.
President Donald Trump arrived in Riyadh on Tuesday, kicking off a high-stakes tour of the Gulf that conspicuously excludes a stop in Israel. In Jerusalem, senior officials and defense experts warn that by prioritizing economic investments and regional accords with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, the White House risks sidelining Israel and undercutting its security concerns.
No Jerusalem Stop, Big Gulf Ambitions
For the first time in recent memory, an American president’s Middle East tour omits a visit to Israel. Instead, Trump’s agenda focuses on securing up to $1 trillion in Saudi investments and finalizing a $100 billion arms package. Israeli leaders interpret this omission as a clear signal: Washington may be ready to subordinate their interests to Gulf economic and diplomatic priorities.
Fear of a “New JCPOA”
Israel’s greatest dread is that Trump may revive a nuclear deal with Iran resembling the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. U.S. officials have floated the possibility of allowing limited uranium enrichment and civilian nuclear programs—options that run counter to Israel’s bottom line. Without ironclad American backing, Jerusalem could find itself forced to consider unilateral military strikes against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, with attendant regional risks.
“We are much closer to seeing a new version of the JCPOA,” warns former U.S. Ambassador Danny Ayalon. “That would let Iran preserve its missile arsenal, fuel proxy conflicts, and erode Israel’s edge.”
Saudi Nuclear Ambitions and F-35 Sales
Equally troubling for Israel is the prospect that Trump will green-light Saudi Arabia’s civilian nuclear program. Israeli officials fear such consent would spark an arms race across the Middle East. Meanwhile, plans to sell F-35 fighters to Riyadh threaten to narrow Israel’s qualitative military advantage.
“An F-35 deal for the Saudis is without doubt very worrisome,” says veteran diplomat Yaki Dayan. “It dilutes Israel’s conventional deterrent.”
Normalization Decoupled from Palestinian Statehood
Riyadh has long insisted that normalization with Israel hinge on progress toward Palestinian statehood. Frustrated by the unending Gaza war, Trump appears poised to decouple these issues—pursuing Gulf ties even as Israeli-Palestinian peace remains stalled. Rumors swirl that he may announce U.S. recognition of a Palestinian state, a move unthinkable to Israel’s current government.
“Trump needs Saudi backing more than Israel’s,” observes Dayan. “He’s willing to reward Riyadh regardless of the Gaza stalemate.”
Qatar’s Unusual Leverage
Trump’s expected acceptance of a customized Boeing 747 from Qatar underscores the emirate’s unique influence in Washington. As both a U.S. base-host and a patron of Hamas, Qatar wields outsized sway over Gaza ceasefire talks—a dynamic that troubles Israeli strategists.
“Qatar has a sympathetic ear in Trump,” warns Dayan. “That threatens Israel’s interests and its deterrent credibility.”
A New Middle East Power Balance
Israel’s strategic doctrine has traditionally hinged on an unwavering U.S. alliance. As Trump courted Gulf capitals and hints at renewed talks with Iran, that foundation looks shakier than ever. In Jerusalem, officials now ask not just, “What will Trump do?” but “What if he does it without us?” The answers could reshape the regional order—and Israel’s place within it—profoundly.
