The complexities of a post-Assad Syria and its implications for regional stability and Israeli security.
The potential coexistence of Israel and a post-Assad Syria presents a multifaceted challenge. With the new Syrian leadership under Abu Mohammad al-Jolani signaling a break from Iran and advocating for stability, a shift in Middle Eastern dynamics seems possible. However, Israel’s cautious approach highlights the deep-seated complexities of this emerging reality.
Under Jolani’s leadership, the new Syrian government claims to prioritize rebuilding over conflict. In a statement to the BBC, Jolani emphasized Syria’s weariness from prolonged wars and its intent to disengage from the so-called “resistance axis” led by Iran. This position indicates a desire to distance Syria from the adversarial policies of the Assad regime, particularly its alignment with Tehran and Hezbollah.
While these declarations mark a significant rhetorical shift, Israel and the West remain skeptical, given Jolani’s hardline background and the nascent state of Syria’s transitional governance. The path to trust requires tangible actions, including the dismantling of Iran’s influence and the establishment of credible state institutions.
For Israel, the fall of the Assad regime has created both opportunities and risks. Israel’s immediate response—stepping up airstrikes on Syrian military assets—underscores its focus on neutralizing threats. The strikes aim to prevent advanced weapons, including chemical arms, from falling into the hands of extremist factions and to assert Israeli dominance in the region.
At the same time, Israel has expanded its buffer zones along the Golan Heights, effectively recalibrating its security posture. This proactive approach reflects lessons learned from recent conflicts, such as Hamas’s October 7 attack, emphasizing preemptive measures to ensure national security.
Israel’s concerns extend beyond Syria to Turkey’s potential influence over the new Syrian government. A Syrian leadership with ties to Turkey’s Islamist factions could revive fears of neo-Ottoman ambitions in the region. This scenario complicates Israel’s willingness to accept a Syrian regime led by former jihadists, regardless of their proclaimed moderation.
Turkey’s influence could also ripple across the region, reshaping power dynamics in neighboring countries and emboldening Islamist movements. For Israel, these developments necessitate a strategic recalibration to address emerging threats while exploring opportunities for normalized relations with Syria.
Israel has expressed conditional openness to engaging with the new Syrian leadership. Key prerequisites include the complete severance of Syria’s ties to Iran and assurances that extremist groups will not be allowed to operate within its territory. These conditions align with Israel’s broader security objectives but require substantial changes on the ground.
While these terms align with Israel’s broader security objectives, the feasibility of their implementation remains uncertain. The fragmented nature of Syria’s transitional leadership and the enduring influence of external actors like Iran and Russia pose significant hurdles.
The possibility of coexistence between Israel and a new Syria hinges on several factors: the dismantling of Iranian influence, the stabilization of Syria’s internal security, and the neutralization of extremist factions. While Jolani’s rhetoric suggests a willingness to engage diplomatically, Israel’s cautious approach reflects a pragmatic understanding of the challenges ahead.
Ultimately, the success of this transition depends on Syria’s ability to establish credible governance, free from external manipulation and ideological extremism. Only then can a foundation for lasting peace and regional stability be built.
