Assad’s weakening grip reignites Syria’s civil war, forcing Israel into a complex geopolitical gamble.
The Syrian civil war, rekindled with a surprising rebel offensive on Aleppo, places Israel in a precarious position. While Jerusalem prefers a weakened Assad regime to prevent Syria from posing a conventional threat, the complete collapse of Assad’s government could create chaos—potentially ushering in unpredictable Sunni jihadists on Israel’s doorstep. This paradox underscores Israel’s delicate balancing act in Syria.
The new offensive, led by Sunni jihadist groups and backed by Turkey, emerged as Iran and Hezbollah—Assad’s key allies—find themselves weakened by Israel’s recent military campaigns. Operation Northern Arrows, launched to neutralize Hezbollah’s threat, has severely degraded its leadership and capabilities. Iran, facing economic strains and internal unrest, is less equipped to prop up Assad than before. Meanwhile, Russia, embroiled in Ukraine, cannot deploy resources as effectively as it did during its 2015 intervention to save Assad.
For Israel, Assad’s weakened regime offers some strategic advantages: his dependence on Iran limits his ability to act independently, while his fragile position deters him from opening another front against Israel. However, Israel also sees the risks of his complete collapse. A power vacuum could lead to greater instability, with either Iranian militias or Sunni jihadists vying for control—neither of which serves Israeli interests.
Turkey’s role complicates matters further. By supporting the rebels, President Erdogan seeks to resettle millions of Syrian refugees while countering Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria. This gambit pits Ankara against Iran and Russia, further fragmenting the geopolitical landscape.
For now, Israel’s strategy remains indirect: monitor developments while striking Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria to prevent the transfer of weapons. This cautious approach reflects a broader principle in Israeli security policy: exploit divisions among adversaries without becoming embroiled in the conflict. However, as the Syrian civil war evolves, Israel’s room for maneuver may shrink, forcing harder choices in an increasingly volatile region.
