Iran has reportedly supplied Russia with Fath-360 ballistic missiles, but notably without mobile launchers, raising questions about the operational readiness of the weapons in the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This omission, as sources from European and U.S. officials indicated, leaves uncertainty about the deployment timeline and possible motivations behind Tehran’s decision.
The delivery of missiles without launchers could be seen as a tactical maneuver, allowing Iran to maintain some leverage in potential negotiations with Western powers. David Albright, a former U.N. nuclear inspector, suggested that withholding the launchers could provide diplomatic “space” for talks on issues such as Tehran’s nuclear program and regional tensions during the upcoming U.N. General Assembly in New York. By avoiding immediate use of these missiles in Ukraine, Iran may be seeking to avert condemnation from global leaders, particularly as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and other officials prepare for meetings on the sidelines of the assembly.
Experts speculate that the absence of launchers could stem from several factors. One theory is that Russia may modify its own military vehicles to serve as makeshift launchers, similar to Iran’s use of modified Mercedes trucks. However, some argue that the civilian trucks Iran has adapted may not be rugged enough for the harsh, off-road conditions of Ukraine’s winter, complicating their operational viability. Fabian Hinz, a missile expert, noted that these vehicles are not suited for rough terrain, implying that Russia might need time to adapt its infrastructure.
Alternatively, Iran’s withholding of the launchers could reflect a strategic pause in escalation, particularly as Tehran navigates growing international pressure. Recently, the U.S., Germany, Britain, and France imposed new sanctions on Iran, focusing on its aviation sector, in response to its military support for Russia, including the delivery of drones that Kyiv and Western officials have identified as key to Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure.
The transfer of Iranian missiles to Russia further complicates the geopolitical landscape, exacerbating tensions between Tehran and Western nations. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken highlighted the missiles as a threat not only to Ukraine but to broader European security, as they allow Russia to conserve more of its advanced arsenal for strategic strikes. The Fath-360 missile, which travels at four times the speed of sound and has a range of up to 121 km, poses a significant challenge to Ukraine’s air defense systems, which are already stretched thin by ongoing Russian innovations.
At the same time, this missile deal illustrates Iran’s deepening military ties with Russia, despite Tehran’s public denial of supplying arms for use in Ukraine. The Kremlin has acknowledged cooperation with Iran in “the most sensitive areas,” hinting at broader strategic alignment between the two nations. This deepened military partnership could result in further arms deliveries as the conflict continues, posing new challenges for Ukraine and its Western backers.
With diplomatic discussions likely to unfold at the U.N. General Assembly, Iran may be using the timing of the missile delivery as a bargaining chip. The absence of immediate missile launches gives Tehran an opportunity to leverage its support for Russia while potentially signaling to the West that it is open to negotiation. However, Albright remains skeptical that Iran will make meaningful compromises, particularly given its historical resistance to diplomatic pressures on issues like its nuclear program.
Whether the missile launchers eventually arrive in Russia could serve as a barometer for future diplomatic developments. If launchers are delivered, it may signal a breakdown in talks and a more aggressive stance from Tehran. On the other hand, their continued absence could suggest ongoing diplomatic calculations aimed at easing tensions or delaying international backlash.
The delivery of Iranian missiles to Russia without launchers leaves room for speculation about Tehran’s motivations—whether tactical, logistical, or diplomatic. While the lack of operational readiness in Ukraine buys time for possible negotiations, the broader implications of this missile deal reflect the increasingly entangled relationships between Iran, Russia, and the West. As these dynamics unfold, the withheld launchers may serve as both a diplomatic signal and a practical hurdle in the next phase of the Ukraine conflict.
