Regime change? Not so fast. U.S. intelligence says Iran’s government is still firmly in control.

Despite Intensifying U.S.–Israeli Strikes, Intelligence Assessments Say Tehran Retains Control.

U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Iran’s government is not at imminent risk of collapse, even as American and Israeli forces continue their military offensive, according to a Reuters report citing multiple sources familiar with classified assessments.

One source described a “multitude” of intelligence reports showing “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger,” adding that Tehran continues to retain control over the Iranian public. Officials cautioned, however, that the situation remains fluid and internal dynamics could shift.

The findings contrast with public calls from President Donald Trump urging Iranians to reclaim their country following the initial strikes on Feb. 28, which killed former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several relatives of his son and successor.

A senior Israeli official similarly told Reuters there is no certainty the conflict will bring about regime collapse.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has taken a defiant stance. In remarks broadcast on state media Thursday, he announced the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil and gasoline exports transit — until the military campaign ends.

“The Strait of Hormuz must remain closed. American bases in the Middle East must be closed,” the statement said, adding that Iran’s regional and military capabilities would be activated if necessary.

The shutdown has intensified pressure on global energy markets. Shipping monitors report roughly 240 vessels waiting to pass through the strait, with only limited traffic moving in recent days. Attacks on commercial ships have sparked fires and left crew members missing.

In the United States, the average price of gasoline climbed to $3.60 per gallon as of Thursday night, according to AAA. A spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that oil could rise to $200 per barrel if the conflict persists and Hormuz remains blocked.

While battlefield operations continue to escalate, intelligence assessments suggest that military pressure alone has not yet translated into political destabilization inside Iran. For now, the regime appears to be absorbing the strikes — and maintaining its grip on power — even as the economic and regional consequences of the war ripple outward.

Strikes on Baghdad Embassy and UAE Energy Hub Signal Wider Escalation; Oil Surges 40%.

A “decisive phase,” embassy strikes, oil up 40% — and no sign of slowdown. The Iran war is widening fast.

Israel declared Saturday that its war against Iran has entered a “decisive phase,” even as explosions rippled across the Middle East — from Baghdad to the UAE — and oil markets convulsed under mounting disruption.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said strikes on Kharg Island — Iran’s principal oil export hub — marked a turning point. The war, he added, would continue “as long as necessary.”

The escalation was visible across the region. A drone struck the United States Embassy Baghdad, security sources told AFP, the second such attack since hostilities began on Feb. 28.

In the United Arab Emirates, black smoke rose over Fujairah, home to a major oil storage and export facility, after Iranian warnings urging civilians to avoid port areas.

President Donald Trump said U.S. forces had “obliterated” military targets on Kharg Island but spared energy facilities. Tehran confirmed oil infrastructure remained intact and reiterated that any attack on its energy sector would trigger retaliation against U.S.-linked oil assets.

The conflict, now in its third week, has displaced millions and killed more than 1,200 people in Iran, according to Iranian officials. Israel says more than 15,000 targets have been struck.

Oil prices have surged roughly 40% amid Iranian threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a channel carrying about one-fifth of global petroleum supplies.

Missile and drone fire continued. Sirens sounded over Jerusalem after new launches from Iran. Qatar said it intercepted missiles over Doha and evacuated parts of the capital.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem described the confrontation as an “existential battle,” as Israeli strikes and cross-border exchanges intensified.

Iran’s leadership transition adds uncertainty. Following the killing of Ali Khamenei, his son Mojtaba Khamenei was named supreme leader but has remained out of public view amid reports of injury. The Revolutionary Guards have threatened a crackdown on dissent, while exiled opposition figures call for a political transition.

Washington is reinforcing its posture. The Pentagon said early operations cost $11.3 billion in six days and acknowledged U.S. personnel losses. U.S. media report additional naval deployments, including the USS Tripoli with thousands of Marines, as the Navy prepares to escort tankers through Hormuz.

Analysts warn that a “decisive phase” may mean broader escalation rather than resolution — widening strikes, deeper regional entanglement, and rising economic costs. For now, both sides signal resolve. The question is whether decisive action leads to a settlement — or to a more combustible next stage.

Palestinian Group Affirms Tehran’s Right to Defend Itself but Warns Against Strikes on Gulf States.

A rare public plea: Hamas backs Iran’s right to fight — but asks it to stop hitting neighboring countries.

Hamas on Saturday called on Iran to avoid targeting neighboring countries, even as it reaffirmed Tehran’s right to defend itself against Israel and the United States.

In a statement — its first public appeal of this kind — the Palestinian group urged “the brothers in Iran to avoid targeting neighboring countries,” while endorsing Iran’s right to respond “by all available means in accordance with international norms and laws.”

The appeal comes as the war that began on Feb. 28 continues to expand across the Middle East, with missile and drone strikes reaching multiple countries in the Gulf.

Qatar said it intercepted two missiles over Doha on Saturday, after explosions were heard in the capital and authorities evacuated parts of the city. The U.S. Embassy in Qatar said it remains under a shelter-in-place directive for emergency personnel.

Hamas, which the United States designates as a terrorist organization, also called on the international community to “work towards halting” the conflict immediately.

The group had previously condemned the killing of Iran’s former supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, describing it as a “heinous crime” and acknowledging his longstanding support for the Palestinian cause.

Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has since been named supreme leader. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Friday that Mojtaba Khamenei was wounded.

A Hamas official, speaking anonymously to AFP, said the group has been in contact with Iranian officials and has also reached out to governments in Qatar, Türkiye, and Iraq in an effort to de-escalate the crisis.

“The Israeli occupation seeks to sow discord between Iran and its Arab and Islamic neighbors,” the official said.

The plea highlights growing concern that the conflict is straining Iran’s regional alliances.

While Tehran has launched missile and drone attacks on at least 10 countries since the war began, its Lebanese ally Hezbollah has intensified rocket fire against Israel, prompting Israeli strikes that Lebanese authorities say have killed nearly 800 people.

More than 1,200 people have reportedly been killed in Iran, according to Iranian officials. At least 13 U.S. service members have died since the U.S. and Israel began their campaign.

Hamas’s statement suggests unease even among Iran’s partners about the widening scope of the war — and the risk that regional solidarity could fracture if civilian populations in neighboring states bear the cost.

From Tactical Success to Strategic Uncertainty, the U.S.–Israel Campaign Risks Becoming More Complex and Costly.

Airstrikes may be working. Strategy may not be. Is the Iran war climbing an escalatory ladder with no clear exit?

The war against Iran is entering a dangerous phase — one where battlefield precision masks strategic ambiguity.

In military terms, the opening strikes by the United States and Israel achieved striking tactical results. Key Iranian leaders, including former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, were killed. Command structures were disrupted. Missile sites and drone facilities were degraded.

But tactical success does not automatically translate into strategic victory.

Iran’s regime remains intact. Its stockpile of highly enriched uranium is unsecured. And Tehran has pivoted to what analysts call “horizontal escalation” — widening the war’s geography and economic impact rather than confronting U.S. forces head-on.

By targeting Gulf states and threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is attempting to shift the burden of the conflict. The aim is not to defeat American airpower, but to raise costs — politically and economically — for Washington and its regional partners.

Robert Pape, a historian who has studied the limits of air campaigns, describes this dynamic as an “escalation trap.” The first stage is tactical dominance. The second comes when battlefield success fails to produce political results, prompting the attacker to double down.

The third stage is the most perilous: riskier, more expansive options that may deepen the conflict without guaranteeing resolution.

By that measure, the war may already be edging from stage two toward stage three.

Israel has signaled readiness to expand operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah. U.S. officials continue to intensify strikes in Iran. President Donald Trump speaks simultaneously of victory and of unfinished business.

That rhetorical duality reflects a strategic dilemma. Iran does not need to win conventionally. It needs only to survive while imposing incremental costs — oil disruptions, maritime insecurity, asymmetric strikes. Even a reduced pace of missile and drone attacks can sustain pressure if shipping lanes remain under threat.

The risk extends beyond the Gulf. Analysts warn of incrementalism — the slow slide into deeper involvement. Special forces deployments, support for internal factions, or territorial footholds could trigger Iranian retaliation in unpredictable forms, from cyberattacks to strikes on soft targets.

At the same time, internal debates are shaping the trajectory: between U.S. defense professionals and political leadership, between Washington and Jerusalem, and within Iran’s own power centers, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

What makes the moment volatile is not only the military exchange, but the mismatch between short-term battlefield gains and long-term political objectives. Airpower can degrade capabilities. It rarely compels ideological surrender.

The escalatory ladder is steep. Each rung may appear manageable. But the higher it climbs, the harder it becomes to step down without appearing to lose.

The central question now is whether this war stabilizes through diplomacy or exhaustion — or whether the logic of escalation overtakes the logic of restraint.

History suggests that once leaders become confident in their ability to control escalation, that is often when control begins to slip.

Israeli Prime Minister Says Regime Collapse in Tehran Is Uncertain but Vows to Keep Striking.

“No life insurance policies.” Netanyahu issues a stark warning to Iran’s new supreme leader — but concedes regime collapse is far from guaranteed.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday issued a veiled threat against Iran’s newly appointed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, while acknowledging that Israel’s joint air campaign with the United States may not ultimately bring down Tehran’s clerical government.

In his first press conference since the war began nearly two weeks ago, Netanyahu said Iran was “no longer the same” after sustained bombardment that he claimed had severely weakened the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij paramilitary force.

Standing between two Israeli flags and answering questions via video link as air-raid sirens sounded across central Israel, Netanyahu was asked what action Israel might take against Mojtaba Khamenei and Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem.

“I wouldn’t issue life insurance policies on any of the leaders of the terrorist organization,” Netanyahu said, declining to elaborate on operational plans. “I don’t intend to provide an exact report here about what we are planning or what we are going to do.”

Israel has framed its assault on Iran as a campaign to eliminate what it describes as an existential threat posed by Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Israeli officials have also spoken openly about encouraging internal unrest that could destabilize or topple Iran’s leadership.

Yet Netanyahu conceded that such an outcome is uncertain.

“We are creating the optimal conditions for toppling the regime,” he said. “But I won’t deny that I can’t tell you with all certainty that the people of Iran will topple the regime — a regime is toppled from the inside.”

While some Iranians reportedly celebrated the death of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at the start of the conflict, there have been no visible signs of sustained anti-government protests since the war began.

Netanyahu vowed to continue striking Hezbollah in Lebanon after the Iran-backed group opened fire earlier this month in retaliation for Israel’s killing of Ali Khamenei. He maintained that even if Tehran’s government survives, it will emerge significantly weakened.

The remarks underscore the tension at the heart of Israel’s strategy: military dominance may degrade Iran’s capabilities, but political collapse remains beyond guaranteed reach.

For now, Israel appears committed to maintaining pressure — even as the outcome in Tehran remains uncertain.

Hit our oil, we hit yours. Iran draws a red line after U.S. strikes on its main export hub.

Tehran Warns Energy Firms Cooperating With Washington Face Retaliation as Gulf Tensions Surge.

Kharg Island at the Center of Escalation

The threat underscores how quickly the conflict risks spilling into global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Any sustained disruption could send prices sharply higher and deepen economic strain worldwide.

Tehran’s message appears calibrated: it does not merely threaten U.S. assets, but companies in the region that cooperate with Washington. That widens the potential battlefield to Gulf infrastructure and multinational energy firms.

Tensions are already reverberating across neighboring states. In the United Arab Emirates, authorities ordered the arrest of individuals accused of sharing videos of air defense interceptions, citing concerns over public panic.

In Iraq, explosions were reported in Baghdad following what appeared to be a missile strike on a property linked to Kataeb Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia.

The exchange marks a dangerous turn. For decades, Kharg Island has figured in U.S. contingency planning. In a 1988 interview, Trump said that if Iran ever fired at American forces, he would “do a number on Kharg Island.” More than three decades later, that rhetoric has become operational reality.

Now the question is not whether the oil hub can be hit — but whether the energy war spreads beyond it.

Iran’s strategy is clear: deter further attacks by raising the cost for anyone tied to the U.S. campaign. Washington’s stance is equally blunt: protect maritime flows at any price.

With oil infrastructure now openly in play, the conflict has moved from military confrontation to economic brinkmanship — and the consequences could extend far beyond the Gulf.

“Europe needs leadership, not vassals.” Spain’s deputy prime minister openly challenges Brussels over its response to Trump’s Iran war.

Yolanda Díaz Accuses Brussels of ‘Servile’ Stance as Rift Deepens Over U.S.–Israeli Campaign.

Spain’s Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz has accused European Union leaders of allowing themselves to be “held hostage” by U.S. President Donald Trump over the escalating war with Iran, warning that Brussels’ approach risks deepening public disillusionment with the bloc.

In an interview published Thursday by Politico, Díaz described the European Union as “an orphan at a moment of historic gravity,” arguing that it should assert an independent foreign policy rather than defer to Washington.

She criticized what she called a “servile” attitude toward the United States, saying such deference is misguided because Trump “does not respect those who attempt to be his vassals.”

Her remarks reflect mounting tensions within Europe over how to respond to the U.S.–Israeli military campaign against Iran. Díaz labeled the intervention “completely illegitimate” and faulted European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for failing to swiftly condemn the strikes.

The criticism comes as Madrid’s standoff with Washington intensifies. Trump has threatened to cut off trade with Spain after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez refused to allow U.S. forces to use joint military bases for operations against Iran and rejected NATO’s new 5% of GDP defense spending target as excessive.

Sánchez has insisted Spain will not be “complicit” in actions it views as harmful to global stability.

Earlier this week, Spain permanently withdrew its ambassador from Israel and downgraded diplomatic relations, further underscoring its opposition to the campaign.

Díaz also took aim at German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, criticizing him for remaining silent during a White House meeting in which Trump threatened Spain. She argued that Europe needs stronger leadership at a time of geopolitical upheaval.

The Iran conflict has exposed wider fractures within the EU. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, despite maintaining cordial ties with Trump, has described the strikes as evidence of a “crisis of international law.” Other European governments have called for restraint but stopped short of direct condemnation.

As the war reshapes alliances and energy markets, Díaz’s intervention highlights a deeper question confronting Europe: whether the bloc can maintain strategic autonomy in an era of renewed great-power confrontation — or whether internal divisions will leave it reacting to events driven from Washington.

Explosions in Dubai. A U.S. military plane down in Iraq. And the Middle East war shows no sign of slowing.

Smoke Rises Over Financial Hub While U.S. Central Command Confirms Refueling Aircraft Downed in “Friendly Airspace”.

Explosions rattled parts of Dubai early Friday as thick black smoke billowed across the skyline of the Gulf financial hub, while U.S. forces confirmed the crash of a military aircraft in Iraq amid an intensifying regional conflict.

Authorities in Dubai said a fire broke out in the Al Quoz industrial district after debris from what officials described as a “successful interception” struck the façade of a building in central Dubai. The city’s media office said there were no reported injuries. Smoke drifted across the skyline, visible as far as the sail-shaped Burj Al Arab hotel.

Police cordoned off the affected area, preventing journalists and bystanders from approaching the scene. Witnesses reported hearing blasts before the fire erupted, though officials have not released further details about the interception.

Separately, U.S. Central Command confirmed that a KC-135 refueling aircraft crashed in what it described as “friendly airspace” in Iraq. The command said the incident was not caused by hostile or friendly fire. At least five crew members were aboard the aircraft, according to a U.S. official speaking on condition of anonymity. A second aircraft involved in the incident landed safely.

Rescue operations were ongoing.

The developments came as the U.S.–Israeli military campaign against Iran entered another volatile phase. Israeli forces launched new strikes on Tehran and Beirut, while Iranian-backed groups continued attacks across the region.

President Donald Trump said the United States was “totally destroying” Iran’s ruling system “militarily, economically and otherwise,” describing the campaign as his “great honour.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used his first press conference since the start of the war to defend the joint offensive and issued a thinly veiled warning toward Iran’s new leadership.

In Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region, French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed that a French soldier was killed in a drone attack near Erbil — the first French military fatality of the conflict. Several others were wounded during training operations with Iraqi forces.

The violence has also raised tensions at NATO facilities. Sirens were reported at Incirlik Air Base in southern Türkiye, where U.S. troops are stationed, though officials offered no immediate explanation.

As oil markets remain volatile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington plans to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz once it secures full air superiority and degrades Iran’s missile capabilities.

For now, smoke over Dubai and the downed aircraft in Iraq underscore the widening reach of a conflict that is increasingly touching multiple fronts — military, economic and diplomatic — across the Middle East.