This week’s NATO summit in Washington has been a focal point for discussions on supporting Ukraine. Yet, behind closed doors, officials are grappling with a more ominous challenge: an arms race with Russia and its emerging coalition.
NATO leaders argue it’s no longer enough to arm Ukraine against relentless Russian attacks. They must also outspend, outpace, and outproduce the alliance forming between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.
China’s critical role in sustaining Russia’s military has not gone unnoticed. Western officials accuse Beijing of sending raw materials and dual-use components essential for advanced weapons systems. Meanwhile, sanctions from the U.S. and Britain have targeted Iranian companies producing drones for Russia. Declassified U.S. intelligence also notes Russia’s use of North Korean missiles, with South Korean officials reporting Pyongyang has sent over 3 million artillery shells to Moscow.
The NATO official highlighted that China’s support has drastically changed Russia’s battlefield posture, rendering outdated the assessments that Russia’s military would need years to rebuild. “The assessments didn’t account for China’s substantial involvement,” the official said.
Concerns mount as cooperation among Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran deepens, highlighting the urgency of NATO’s response. President Joe Biden acknowledged this burgeoning alliance, describing it as a significant concern. A strategy to disrupt their efforts is in place, though details remain undisclosed.
Some U.S. officials have labeled this coalition the new “axis of evil.” Admiral John Aquilino, former commander of U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific, urged lawmakers to act accordingly. Analysts, like Richard Goldberg from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, warn of an intensifying partnership among these nations. “They are aligning on strategic capabilities,” Goldberg said, “and we must view them as an axis, not individual parts.”
Despite these developments, forming a cohesive anti-Western alliance among Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran is not without hurdles. Michelle Grisé from the RAND Corporation points out significant tension points, such as competition for energy markets and differing approaches to Israel. “This axis poses a serious threat, but it’s not an insurmountable rival,” Grisé noted. To form a cohesive alliance, they must translate their opposition to the Western-led order into a unified vision, a task she believes will be challenging.
NATO allies, however, are not complacent. The U.S., Germany, and Spain are ramping up production of interceptors for Patriot air defense batteries, while the U.S. and Turkey collaborate on producing artillery shells in Texas. Biden emphasized the need for the EU and NATO to build their ammunition and weapons capacity, declaring, “The West will become the industrial base for defensive weapons.”
Biden also hinted at imposing economic costs on China for its support of Russia. Yet, some Western officials remain optimistic. “The steps we’re taking are delivering results,” the NATO official said, predicting better production numbers in the coming year.
