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Somalia

How do you solve a problem like Somalia?

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This Thursday, the great and the good will descend on London to discuss Somalia, a country that has topped the Fragile States Index for eight of the past 10 years.

By Ibrahim Qasim
Africa editor, Waryatv News

The London Somalia Conference, co-chaired by the UK, Somalia and the United Nations, will be held in Lancaster House, a grand mansion in the exclusive district of St James’s. Many of the delegates will stay in swish hotels nearby.

This is the third such London gathering since 2012, and there is an element of “cut and paste” to its agenda, which focuses on security, governance and the economy.

The official conference document emphasizes how much progress has been made.

But its description of Somalia from the time of the first meeting still applies: “Chronically unstable and ungoverned”, and threatened by Islamist militants, piracy and famine.

Piracy, which at its height cost $7bn (£5.4bn) a year, is much diminished, although there has been a recent resurgence.

US drones, African Union troops, Western “security advisers” and Somali forces have pushed al-Shabab from most major towns, although the jihadists still control many areas and attack at will.

A recent electoral process resulted in a new and – for the time being – popular president, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, nicknamed Farmajo, and more female and youth representation in parliament.

Life-threatening malnutrition

Somalia is in a “pre-famine” stage rather than the full-blown disaster of 2011, in which more than 250,000 people died.

But it is perhaps surprising that the current water shortage will not be a headline topic at the conference.

The country is in the grip of its worst drought in decades. Four successive rainy seasons have failed.

Two severely malnourished children in Baidoa regional hospital
Severely malnourished children in Baidoa regional hospital

One boy, dressed in purple, stares blankly at the wall. “His brain is damaged due to a prolonged lack of adequate nutrition,” says Dr Yusuf Ali, who returned home to Somalia from the UK two years ago. “He will never recover.”

According to UNICEF, the number of children who are or will be acutely malnourished in 2017 is up by 50% from the beginning of the year, to a total of 1.4 million, including 275,000 for whom the condition is or will be life-threatening.

Most are too sick to go to school or help herd animals, making the life of the country’s many nomads even more precarious.

People are already dying from hunger and diseases that strike those weakened by lack of food.

Severely malnourished children are nine times more likely than healthy ones to die from illnesses such as measles and diarrhoea.

The World Health Organization says there were more than 25,000 cases of cholera in the first four months of 2017, with the number expected to more than double to 54,000 by June.

More than 500 people have already died from the disease.

It is not just humans who are suffering.

‘Triangle of death’

In Somaliland, officials say, 80% of livestock have died.

Livestock is the mainstay of the economy – the ports in Somaliland and nearby Djibouti export more live animals than anywhere else in the world, mainly to the Gulf.

A Somali family crammed into a small tent on the outskirts of Baidoa
Tens of thousands people fleeing drought and al-Shabab live in tents on the outskirts of Baidoa

In south-western Somalia, tens of thousands of drought-affected people have fled to Baidoa, clustering into flimsy, makeshift shelters on the outskirts of the city.

This area – known as the “triangle of death” – was the epicentre of the famines of 2011 and 1991.

“Al-Shabab is harvesting the boys and men we left behind on our parched land, offering them a few dollars and a meal,” says one woman. “Against their will, our children and husbands have become the jihadists’ new army.”

“The biggest problem in dealing with this drought is insecurity,” says Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, president of South West State, in his modest palace in Baidoa.

The city, which is protected by a ring of Ethiopian troops, is right in the heart of al-Shabab country. “The militants have closed all the roads so we cannot deliver help to those who need it most.”

Deadly clashes

This brings home in the starkest of terms why security is top of the London Somalia Conference agenda.

As long as Somalia remains violent, with different parts of the country controlled by a multitude of often conflicting armed groups, it will be impossible to deliver emergency assistance, let alone long-term development.

Al-Shabab fighters perform military drills at a village about 25km outside Mogadishu
Al-Shabab, which has links to al-Qaeda, is believed to have between 7,000 and 9,000 fighters

The recently created South West State is one of the regions making up the new federal Somalia.

Critics fear this will lead to balkanization, and risks introducing another dimension to conflict, as the new states rub up against each other and start fighting. This has already happened in central Somalia, where last year there were deadly clashes between Puntland and Galmudug states.

The attitude of people in South West State shows how much of a gamble the federal system is.

“We have always been marginalized and looked down on by other Somalis,” says a farmer, Fatima Issa.

“We do not want the federal troops here. They don’t hunt down al-Shabab the way our local militias do. We should push for more autonomy, maybe even break away and declare independence like Somaliland did in 1991.”

One aim of the London Somalia Conference is to push for more progress on the sharing of resources between the regions and the center. This contentious issue has been debated since before the first London gathering in 2012.

‘Predatory carnival’

South West State has a special friendship with Ethiopia, which is not on the best of terms with the new federal government. This highlights another possible problem – some foreign powers have started to sign bilateral agreements with regional states.

For instance, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is building a military base in Somaliland, a territory the federal government considers an integral part of Somalia. The UAE has also given military hardware to Jubaland State in southern Somalia.

Somalia’s former special envoy to the US, Abukar Arman, has described the London Somalia Conference as a “predatory carnival”, with foreign powers gathering to slice up Somalia for their own benefit.

Black Hawk Helicopter flying over Mogadishu
The loss of two Black Hawk helicopters in Somalia in 1993 made the US wary of intervening in African crises

Some in Somalia see it as a waste of time.

“It is an expensive talking-shop,” says Ahmed Mohamed, a rickshaw driver in the capital Mogadishu. “The politicians and diplomats are obsessed with the conference instead of taking action on the drought.”

But lessons have been learned, and there is now a far more nuanced approach to Somalia than there was when the crisis began, in the late 1980s.

The US response to the Somali famine of 1991 was to send in nearly 30,000 troops. This ended in a humiliating withdrawal, following the shooting down of two US Black Hawk helicopters in 1993.

Now, much of the talk is of “Somali-owned” processes, although the shadows of a growing number of foreign powers can be seen lurking in the background.

Somalia

Tortured, Starved, and Finally Home: 145 Somalis Return from Libya

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Somalia brings home 145 citizens from Libyan detention centers. They survived torture, starvation & trafficking. Now, they are finally free.

Somalia’s government has successfully repatriated 145 citizens from Libyan detention centers, underscoring growing momentum in its campaign to rescue nationals trapped in North Africa’s perilous migration corridors. The group—comprising mainly young men—arrived Monday in Mogadishu to an emotional reception by officials and humanitarian partners.

Their journey home marks not only a humanitarian win but also a stark reminder of the brutal realities many Somali migrants face abroad. Most had been detained for nearly a year in Libya under deplorable conditions. Survivors spoke of beatings, starvation, and a constant threat of death in facilities controlled by traffickers and armed groups. Many were held by the notorious Magafe human trafficking networks, which extort ransom payments from victims’ families while subjecting detainees to horrific abuse.

“I decided to come back after witnessing several of my friends die in prison,” one returnee said, visibly shaken. “We suffered a lot, but I’m grateful to be home.”

The operation is part of Somalia’s ongoing collaboration with international actors including the International Organization for Migration (IOM), UNHCR, and the European Union, all of whom support the EU-funded Migrant Protection, Return, and Reintegration Programme. Since late 2023, this joint effort has repatriated more than 800 Somalis from Libya, with monthly charter flights organized to bring home those willing and able to return.

Deputy Foreign Minister Issaq Mahmoud Mursal, who personally welcomed the group, emphasized the government’s growing commitment to citizen protection abroad. “We are ready to help any Somali facing hardship outside our borders,” he said. “And we are working harder to warn our youth about the dangerous promises of illegal migration.”

Returnees received basic support upon arrival, including medical assessments, emergency shelter, and small reintegration stipends. Authorities also pledged more comprehensive assistance in the form of vocational training and mental health services—though reintegration remains an uphill battle in a country still facing widespread unemployment and insecurity.

For many returnees, dreams of Europe quickly turned into nightmares. Libya, once a transit country, has become a trap where traffickers operate with impunity amid lawlessness and internal conflict. The country’s collapse since 2011 has turned it into a black hole for migrants, with thousands from the Horn of Africa detained in a vast network of prisons and smuggler-run compounds.

The Somali government, backed by its international partners, is now scaling up public awareness campaigns to address migration at its root. From poverty and youth joblessness to insecurity and poor infrastructure, the factors driving irregular migration are complex—but they are not insurmountable.

Each return flight offers a chance to bring back lives from the edge, and each survivor’s story is a warning.

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Somalia

Al-Shabaab Targets Somali President’s Convoy Four Dead

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Mogadishu on the Brink: Al-Shabaab’s Bold Strike Mirrors Taliban’s Ascendancy.

Al-Shabaab’s audacious attack on the Somali President’s convoy highlights the looming threat of a takeover akin to the Taliban’s rise in Afghanistan, signaling potential collapse of central authority in Somalia.

In a scene distressingly reminiscent of the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan, Al-Shabaab’s recent attack on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s convoy in Mogadishu starkly highlights the insurgent group’s undiminished potency and ominous intent in Somalia. This bold assault not only targeted the nation’s leader but also exposed the precariousness of the Somali government’s grip on power, confined to an ever-shrinking stronghold within Mogadishu’s Halane base—often referred to as the most secure zone in the capital.

The incident starkly illustrates how Al-Shabaab, despite facing extensive counterterrorism measures, continues to infiltrate high-security zones, suggesting possible collusion with insiders and raising fears that the capital could fall. This attack serves as a grim portent of Al-Shabaab’s capabilities and intentions, mirroring the strategic encroachments that preceded the Taliban’s swift resurgence in Afghanistan.

The global community, having invested immense resources in Somalia for over three decades, watches with growing dismay as the situation deteriorates. The persistent instability and the seeming futility of continued financial aid, which some critics compare to pouring resources into a bottomless pit, has led to international exasperation. Moreover, there is an increasing perception among experts that the Somali government and Al-Shabaab might be two sides of the same coin, with accusations of corruption and collusion weakening the official stance against terrorism.

Despite immediate international reactions condemning the attack—highlighted by a strong statement from the UK—the broader implications are troubling. The Somali government’s failure to secure even the most critical areas of Mogadishu from such attacks not only undermines local confidence in their leadership but also signals a potentially catastrophic lapse in the nation’s security architecture, akin to the pre-collapse conditions observed in Afghanistan.

As President Mohamud proceeds to the frontlines, ostensibly to rally the troops and strategize counter-offensives, the shadow of Al-Shabaab’s threat looms large, suggesting that without significant and effective international support and a radical overhaul of internal security protocols, Somalia might well be on the path to becoming the next Afghanistan in terms of militant takeover and governmental collapse.

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Somalia

Airstrike Obliterates Al Shabab Leadership in Somalia

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In a precision airstrike, Somali forces, backed by international partners, eliminate a key Al Shabaab leader and over fifty militants, marking a pivotal setback for the terror group’s operations in Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region.

The recent airstrike in the Middle Shabelle region of Somalia, which resulted in the elimination of a senior Al Shabaab leader and over fifty of its members, marks a significant tactical victory for the Somali National Army and its international partners. This operation underscores the intensifying efforts by Somali forces to destabilize the militant group’s stronghold within the region.

The primary target of the airstrike, Mansoor Tima-Weeyne, was a key figure within Al Shabaab, responsible for the preparation and deployment of combat vehicles used in terrorist operations. His elimination disrupts the group’s operational capabilities and could potentially cause disarray within its ranks. The destruction of three combat vehicles, including two equipped with heavy weaponry, further cripples Al Shabaab’s ability to wage large-scale attacks, thereby reducing their threat level temporarily.

This operation highlights the effectiveness of intelligence-led airstrikes in combating terrorism. By targeting senior leaders and critical assets, the Somali National Army not only diminishes the group’s operational strength but also sends a clear message about the increasing precision and capability of government forces. Such strikes are essential for maintaining the momentum against Al Shabaab and for the broader strategy of weakening their grip on the region.

The involvement of international partners in the airstrike operation reflects a collaborative approach to counterterrorism efforts in Somalia. This cooperation is crucial for providing the Somali National Army with the necessary intelligence and technological support to conduct such precise operations. However, the ongoing challenge remains the need for sustained pressure on Al Shabaab to prevent them from regrouping and adapting their strategies.

The successful airstrike operation also plays a significant role in improving regional stability. By disrupting Al Shabaab’s activities in Middle Shabelle, a critical region for the group’s logistics and operations, the Somali National Army contributes to safer environments for economic development and humanitarian aid efforts. This is particularly important as the region has been a flashpoint for conflict and a base for launching attacks within Somalia.

While the airstrike represents a tactical success in the short term, the Somali government and its allies must remain vigilant. Al Shabaab has demonstrated resilience and adaptability in the past. Thus, continuous efforts in intelligence gathering, strategic airstrikes, and ground operations are necessary to ensure a long-term reduction in the group’s capabilities. Furthermore, these military efforts should be complemented by initiatives that address the underlying socio-economic issues that contribute to the insurgency, ensuring a holistic approach to peace and stability in Somalia.

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Somalia

Somalia Tightens Borders with New Airline Passenger Screening Mandate

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Starting March 31, 2025, international airlines must share passenger data with Somali authorities, a major move to bolster national security against terrorism and crime.

The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has announced a new requirement for all international airlines operating within its borders to submit Advanced Passenger Information (API) and Passenger Name Record (PNR) data by March 31, 2025. This initiative is part of Somalia’s broader effort to fortify its borders against various threats, including terrorism and transnational crime, and aligns with the country’s Immigration Act No. 9 of 1966 as well as pertinent United Nations Security Council Resolutions 2178 and 2396.

The new directive is particularly critical in light of Somalia’s ongoing battle with al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda-linked terrorist organization that has continually exploited the nation’s security vulnerabilities, especially porous borders. By implementing API and PNR data sharing, Somalia aims to enhance its capability to screen and monitor individuals entering the country, thereby preempting potential security threats.

This policy mirrors security practices globally, where such data integration has proven instrumental in enhancing border controls and preventing terrorism. The U.S. has successfully incorporated PNR data into its security systems for years, demonstrating the efficacy of this approach in identifying and mitigating risks posed by international travelers.

The U.S. Embassy in Somalia has played a crucial role in setting up this system, underscoring the importance of international cooperation in Somalia’s security reforms. The integration of API and PNR systems into Somalia’s security infrastructure not only aims to curb the free movement of terrorist fighters but also aligns the country with global security standards, which could further international partnerships and aid in the region.

Additionally, the move could have far-reaching implications for Somalia’s tourism and international trade, requiring airlines and other stakeholders in the aviation industry to adapt to these new regulatory measures. It also sends a strong signal to the international community about Somalia’s commitment to taking proactive steps in safeguarding its borders.

This policy is expected to significantly bolster Somalia’s security infrastructure and provide its authorities with the necessary tools to combat threats posed by terrorist organizations and other criminal elements effectively. As Somalia continues to navigate its complex security landscape, the successful implementation of this policy could serve as a critical component in its ongoing efforts to achieve stability and security.

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Somalia

Ethiopian Airstrikes Target Al-Shabaab Positions in Somalia

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The airstrikes conducted by Ethiopian military aircraft in Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region reflect an ongoing commitment between Somalia and Ethiopia to counter Al-Shabaab’s influence in the area. This operation, conducted with the approval of the Somali federal government, underscores the collaborative effort under the security cooperation framework established by both nations, notably influenced by the Ankara agreement.

This strategic partnership is crucial as it not only targets militant strongholds but also aims to stabilize the region by curtailing Al-Shabaab’s operational capabilities.

Ethiopia’s involvement in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) further solidifies its role in supporting Somalia against common threats. This move is part of a broader regional strategy to ensure that efforts against militant groups like Al-Shabaab are synchronized and effective.

The integration of Ethiopian forces into AUSSOM underlines the commitment of both Ethiopia and Somalia to safeguard regional security and disrupt terrorist activities that have long plagued the area.

The enhanced military cooperation between Ethiopia and Somalia, especially after resolving diplomatic tensions related to maritime access agreements with Somaliland, highlights a significant shift towards more robust regional security dynamics.

This cooperative stance is pivotal in the fight against terrorism, providing a framework for future operations and potentially leading to more stabilized governance and security in Somalia.

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Opinion

Khat Wars: The Political Weaponry of Ethiopia and Kenya in Somalia

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The Strategic Exploitation of Khat: A Tool of Influence and Instability in Somalia.

Khat, a leaf chewed for its stimulating effects, has transcended its role as a mere agricultural commodity to become a significant element in the geopolitical playbook of Ethiopia and Kenya, much like opium in the historical context of the Opium Wars. This strategy reflects a grim chapter in the annals of history where substances are weaponized not just for profit, but for political supremacy and social control.

Historically, substances like opium have been utilized by colonial powers such as the British during the Opium Wars to subjugate and weaken nations like China. In a similar vein, Ethiopia and Kenya have wielded khat within Somalia, exploiting its socio-cultural fabric to perpetuate instability and maintain dominance. This manipulation mirrors the colonial strategies of old, where control over a substance meant control over the masses.

In the contemporary setting, khat flows abundantly from Ethiopia and Kenya into Somalia, underpinning a complex web of economic and social dynamics that affects everything from individual livelihoods to the broader stability of the region. The revenues from khat sales bolster the economies of Ethiopia and Kenya, while simultaneously funding mechanisms of control and influence over Somali territories, particularly in the context of territorial disputes and political hegemony.

Moreover, the pervasive use of khat in Somali society has deep implications. It drains economic resources, impacts productivity, and shifts focus from pressing national issues, effectively keeping the population in a state of subdued compliance. The strategic deployment of khat by neighboring countries as a tool of political and economic influence thus represents a modern echo of historical practices of substance-driven colonialism.

Ethiopia’s and Kenya’s use of khat as a political weapon against Somalia not only highlights the continuation of colonial-era tactics in modern geopolitics but also underscores the complex interplay between commerce, addiction, and power. For Somalia, countering this influence requires a nuanced understanding of both the historical precedents and the current geopolitical motivations that drive the trade and use of khat within its borders.

As Somalia navigates this challenging landscape, the lessons from history underscore the necessity for robust policies that address not just the economic and social dimensions of khat consumption, but also its deep-seated role as a tool of external influence and internal division. The path forward involves turning a critical eye to the past and crafting strategies that neutralize the weaponization of commodities like khat in the geopolitical arena.

By Abdirizak Dhoore and Ayanle Farah

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Waryatv’s editorial stance.

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Somalia

Airlines Halt Flights Amid Rising Terror Threats in Somalia

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Tensions Escalate as Somalia’s Al-Shabaab Advances Towards Mogadishu.

Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways have halted their operations to Mogadishu, reacting to alarming terror warnings from the U.S. Embassy about potential attacks at Aden Adde International Airport. This suspension comes as Al-Shabaab militants intensify their assault, edging dangerously close to the Somali capital, and raising global alarm over the region’s stability.

The U.S. Embassy’s urgent alert has pinpointed imminent threats, particularly focusing on the airport’s vulnerability. In response, Turkish Airlines scrapped its upcoming flights for a week, citing severe security concerns echoed by intelligence insights. Meanwhile, Qatar Airways also confirmed a pause in its services, signaling a growing apprehension among international carriers about the escalating risks in flying to the conflict-ridden area.

This drastic step follows a recent mortar attack during Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit, underscoring the volatile security landscape. Al-Shabaab’s relentless offensives have seen them seizing multiple towns in quick succession, demonstrating their fortified grip and operational reach within Somalia. Their proximity to Mogadishu has now not only disrupted air travel but has also posed a direct challenge to the Somali government’s efforts to secure the region.

While Turkish and Qatari flights are on a temporary standstill, other major airlines like Ethiopian Airlines and Egypt Air continue their operations, albeit under heightened scrutiny and potential reconsideration of their flight schedules to Mogadishu.

The suspension of these flights is more than a logistical alteration—it’s a stark reminder of the fragility of peace in Somalia and the persistent threat posed by Al-Shabaab. As international stakeholders reassess their engagement and strategies in Somalia, the focus sharply turns to bolstering defenses and reevaluating alliances to curb the militant surge that now threatens to destabilize the Horn of Africa further.

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Somalia

AFRICOM Confirms 10 Airstrikes in Somalia in 2025

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Ten Airstrikes Target Terror in Somalia Amid Rising Insurgency.

AFRICOM has indeed been active in Somalia in 2025, conducting ten airstrikes aimed at both ISIS and al-Shabaab militants, reflecting the U.S.’s ongoing counterterrorism efforts in the region. These strikes are part of a broader strategy to support the Somali government in its fight against these militant groups, who continue to pose a significant threat to the stability of the country.

The escalation in militant activities, particularly by al-Shabaab, underscores the challenges faced by the Somali government. Despite recapturing towns temporarily seized by militants, the Somali security forces face ongoing issues with resources, coordination, and support, exacerbated by the recent U.S. funding cuts to critical units like the Danab special forces.

These financial constraints, coupled with the logistical challenges of maintaining security across a geographically and politically complex landscape, highlight the precarious balance of power in Somalia. The reduction in U.S. military aid underscores the necessity for the Somali government to explore alternative funding strategies and strengthen internal capabilities to sustain its counter-insurgency efforts.

U.S. Withdraws Funding from Somalia’s Danab Forces

 

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