Moscow Uses Cheaper Ballistic Weapons to Preserve Its Advanced Arsenal
Russia appears to have found a blunt but effective answer to Ukraine’s shrinking supply of advanced interceptors: convert old training missiles into operational weapons and fire them in sufficient numbers to force Kyiv into an impossible calculation.
Reuters reported that revamped RM48U missiles—originally built as targets for Russian air-defence exercises—accounted for more than half of 228 ballistic and hypersonic launches recorded in July and early August.
Ukrainian officials said the adapted missiles are less accurate and carry smaller warheads than purpose-built Iskander or North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles. They remain lethal, however, and their speed and flight profile make them difficult to stop without scarce systems such as the U.S.-made Patriot.
Cheap missiles can impose expensive choices
The military logic is more important than the individual weapon. Russia can use older, lower-value missiles to maintain pressure on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure while conserving its more capable ballistic arsenal for strategically important targets or a winter campaign.
Ukraine must decide whether to expend a valuable interceptor against a less accurate missile, accept the risk that it will strike a populated area, or move limited batteries away from other threatened regions. This is an exhaustion strategy aimed at ammunition, radar coverage and public confidence simultaneously.
The reported death of civilians during an RM48U strike on a railway platform shows why “lower accuracy” does not mean low consequence. A weapon unsuitable for precision warfare can still be devastating when directed toward an urban transport hub.
What remains uncertain
Public reporting does not establish how many RM48Us Russia can convert, their failure rate, or whether their recent prominence can be sustained. Ukrainian battlefield figures also require caution during an active war. The visible pattern nevertheless suggests deliberate inventory management rather than an isolated improvisation.
WARYATV Assessment
Russia is converting obsolescence into operational leverage. The adapted missile does not need to match the Iskander’s accuracy; it only needs to consume Ukrainian attention and possibly a Patriot interceptor. If Western resupply remains constrained, Moscow can preserve its premium arsenal while forcing Ukraine to spend premium defences against second-tier threats. The indicator to watch is not merely launch volume, but the ratio of converted missiles to advanced ballistic weapons as winter approaches.
