Saudi Arabia’s Planned Offensive Could Reopen the Battle for Bab el-Mandeb
More than 100,000 troops may be assembled—but Yemen’s fractured alliances could decide the campaign.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly preparing a major campaign aimed at breaking Houthi control near Bab el-Mandeb and restoring internationally recognized Yemeni forces along strategic coastal territory.
The operation could involve more than 100,000 Yemeni troops, Saudi air support and American intelligence. Turkey and Pakistan may provide equipment or advisers, while France could contribute defensive assistance. The operation’s timing and final scope remain uncertain.
Numbers do not guarantee cohesion
The anti-Houthi camp includes the internationally recognized government, southern factions, tribal forces and groups with competing territorial and political ambitions.
Assembling a large force is easier than creating unified command. A coastal offensive could fail if factions dispute leadership, supply lines or control of captured territory.
The Houthis have spent years building defensive positions, missile units, drone capabilities and networks across mountainous terrain. They can also retaliate against Saudi cities, shipping and energy infrastructure.
A maritime objective with land-war costs
Control near Bab el-Mandeb would reduce Houthi territorial leverage over one of the world’s most important shipping passages. But maritime security cannot be achieved merely by pushing fighters away from a coastline.
Missiles and drones can operate from inland areas. Smuggling networks may survive territorial losses, while displaced populations and destroyed infrastructure could worsen Yemen’s humanitarian emergency.
WARYATV Assessment
The planned campaign addresses a genuine strategic threat, but it risks repeating a familiar error: assuming that air power, money and large troop numbers can compensate for political fragmentation on the ground.
For Somaliland, the operation creates both opportunity and danger. Successful stabilization could reduce shipping risk. A prolonged war could increase refugee movement, weapons trafficking, insurance costs and attacks across the Red Sea.
Bab el-Mandeb may be a maritime chokepoint, but the battle for it will be decided through difficult land warfare and the political arrangements that follow.
