Mogadishu Blinks — Somali President Moves Toward Somaliland Recognition. The political ground in Mogadishu is quietly shifting.
Senior intelligence officials speaking to WARYATV on condition of anonymity say Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is moving toward recognizing Somaliland, following sensitive talks with senior intelligence figures in recent days.
According to the officials, the discussions took place amid growing concern inside Villa Somalia over the rapid diplomatic momentum building around Somaliland, especially after Israel’s recognition and expanding international engagement.
“This comes as the president has deliberately stayed away from the Somaliland conflict,” one official told WARYATV, describing the current posture as strategic retreat rather than confrontation.
In a recent interview with Al Jazeera Arabic, President Hassan Sheikh publicly acknowledged Israel’s legitimacy, while hinting at a future shift in policy.
“We recognize Israel, but we have no ties,” he said. “We will have ties soon.”
Intelligence sources say the president made direct contact with intelligence officials on December 29, expressing concern over political and security developments surrounding Somaliland — including travel and diplomatic movements abroad that could reshape the region’s balance.
“He contacted us because he was worried about how fast things were moving,” one source said. “This wasn’t casual. It was urgent.”
Officials note that this is not the first time Hassan Sheikh has pivoted under pressure. In 2024, he fiercely opposed the Somaliland–Ethiopia Memorandum of Understanding, framing it as a red line — only to later invite Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to Mogadishu and publicly offer Somalia’s coastline.
That reversal now serves as a precedent.
Analysts say the same pattern is emerging again: public resistance followed by private recalibration, as Mogadishu confronts a reality it can no longer control.
With Somaliland gaining recognition, allies engaging directly with Hargeisa, and regional powers repositioning, sources say Villa Somalia is running out of options — and time.
What was once unthinkable is now being quietly discussed. Mogadishu may not announce it today. But the door to recognizing Somaliland is no longer closed.
