Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will not move toward recognizing Israel unless he can secure a significantly improved outcome for the Palestinians — and his political survival may depend on it, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) warned Wednesday, arguing that the Israel-Hamas war has sharply complicated the once-near-term prospect of formal Saudi-Israeli normalization.
Speaking at The Jerusalem Post’s Washington Conference, Graham delivered one of his bluntest assessments to date. “MBS is not going to recognize Israel until he gets an outcome better for the Palestinians, or he will get killed,” he said, describing the political stakes facing the crown prince as existential.
Any U.S.-brokered agreement, he argued, must balance Palestinian aspirations with Israel’s security needs, without rewarding Hamas or empowering extremist actors.
“I am not asking Israel to reward terrorism,” he said. “I am asking Israel to be open-minded to end the conflict, where Israel is secure and MBS can move his region forward.”
Graham stressed that a viable normalization package must rest on “real security fundamentals,” which, in his view, means neutralizing Iran’s regional proxy network.
“There is no hope for a Saudi-Israel deal unless you do away with Hamas and Hezbollah,” he said. “Neutralize the threat, and then you can talk rationally.”
The senator, long regarded in Israel as one of its strongest advocates in Washington, said the region was on the cusp of a breakthrough before Hamas’s October 7 attack and the subsequent war.
“We were this close,” he said. “We were running the framework.
Then October 7 happened.” He argued that Hamas intentionally filmed its atrocities to harden Israeli public opinion and derail Arab states contemplating diplomatic openings with Israel.
Graham repeated his view that Israel remains central to American strategic interests. “Israel is a good investment for America because we have common values and common enemies,” he said, adding that replicating Israel’s military capabilities would require the United States “to double our military budget.”
He called Israel “the anchor” of U.S. strategy in the Middle East.
On normalization, Graham rejected the idea of an international force stepping in to disarm Hamas. “There is no air force going to disarm Hamas,” he said. “You will find a unicorn quicker. Only Israel can do it.” He urged the international community to impose a firm deadline on Hamas: “Put Hamas on a clock.
If they do not give up their weapons, all bets are off. Send Israel in and wipe them out.”
Turning to Lebanon, Graham said the country has no viable future “as long as it tolerates an armed Hezbollah with the desire to destroy the Jewish state.” He said he is pressing the Trump administration to prepare for coordinated U.S.-Israel action if necessary.
“Build up the Lebanese army and fly with Israel to take this terrorist organization down,” he said.
Graham also unveiled plans for legislation targeting Iran’s energy exports, aiming to penalize countries — including China — that continue purchasing Iranian oil. The measure is designed to constrict Tehran’s ability to fund Hamas, Hezbollah, and other proxies across the region.
Despite the region’s volatility, Graham insisted a rare strategic opening remains within reach if Washington, Riyadh, and Jerusalem can navigate the postwar landscape.
Advanced U.S. weapons for Saudi Arabia, he suggested, could be justified if they deliver a historic diplomatic breakthrough. “It is the best idea in 3,000 years if it gets Saudi Arabia and Israel to make peace,” he said. “Do not let this window close.”
“There is a unity of purpose here,” Graham concluded. “Hamas and Hezbollah are not the future. The Abraham Accords are real. The change in the Arab world is real. Do not miss this moment.”
