Once allies with shared strategic goals, Pakistan and Afghanistan are now locked in escalating tensions marked by cross-border violence and growing mistrust. The latest incident—a deadly airstrike by Pakistan in Afghanistan’s Paktika province—has widened the rift, highlighting a complex relationship that has deteriorated since the Taliban seized power in 2021.
On December 24, Pakistan launched airstrikes on the Barmal district in Paktika province, killing civilians, including women and children. While Islamabad claimed the strikes targeted Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, Kabul accused Pakistan of violating its sovereignty and vowed retaliation. Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government condemned the attack as a “barbaric” act and summoned Pakistan’s envoy to express its outrage.
This is not the first time such incidents have occurred. Earlier this year, similar airstrikes prompted retaliatory fire from Afghanistan, reflecting a pattern of increasing hostility.
Pakistan’s military actions stem from a pressing security concern: the rise of the TTP. With safe havens allegedly in Afghanistan, the TTP has launched numerous attacks on Pakistani soil, making 2023 one of the bloodiest years in recent memory. Islamabad accuses Kabul of harboring the TTP, a claim the Taliban denies. Yet, the persistence of cross-border attacks underscores the failure of both nations to address this volatile issue.
The TTP’s resurgence highlights the fragility of Pakistan’s internal security. Once seen as a patron of the Afghan Taliban, Islamabad now faces blowback as militant groups exploit Afghanistan’s unregulated spaces to destabilize Pakistan.
Pakistan’s mass deportation of Afghan refugees has further strained relations. Citing security and economic pressures, Islamabad expelled over half a million Afghans, a move Kabul described as inhumane. For decades, Pakistan hosted millions of Afghan refugees, but its recent hardline approach reflects shifting priorities and dwindling tolerance for Afghan migrants amid economic challenges.
Historically, Pakistan supported the Afghan Taliban to counter Soviet influence and maintain strategic depth. However, the Taliban’s 2021 return to power disrupted this dynamic. Feeling emboldened by new partnerships with China, Russia, and Iran, the Taliban no longer see Pakistan as indispensable. Meanwhile, Islamabad, grappling with its own challenges, has found its influence over Kabul diminishing.
The deteriorating relationship between these two nations has regional and global implications. Border skirmishes, deportations, and growing ties between the Taliban and other nations complicate Pakistan’s strategic calculations. Efforts to mend ties seem unlikely in the near term, as both nations pursue divergent goals.
Pakistan and Afghanistan now stand as adversaries, their historical camaraderie overshadowed by mutual suspicion and unyielding national interests. Whether this relationship can be salvaged depends on pragmatic diplomacy and mutual recognition of shared security challenges—a path that remains uncertain amid escalating hostilities.
