Amman on Edge as Syrian Power Vacuum and Iranian Influence Threaten Kingdom’s Stability
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves through neighboring Jordan, where leaders are grappling with fears of being the next domino in the region’s instability. Already housing 1.3 million Syrian refugees, Jordan’s population—60% of whom are Palestinian—faces rising political and economic pressures, compounded by suspicions of spies among the refugee communities and growing Iranian ambitions.
Relations between Amman and Damascus have long been fraught. Assad’s regime not only withheld critical resources like water and food from Jordan but also taunted the kingdom with veiled threats of facilitating an Iranian takeover. This rhetoric is now backed by action, as Iranian missiles and drones targeting Israel recently landed in Jordanian territory, keeping Jordanian security forces on high alert.
To counter these threats, Jordan has fortified its borders, closing crossings like the Jaber checkpoint near Daraa, and ramping up surveillance on Syrian drug and arms smuggling operations. Maher al-Assad, the brother of the ousted Syrian president, has been implicated in Captagon smuggling networks that exploit Jordan’s porous borders, further destabilizing the kingdom.
Concerns are also mounting over Jordan’s internal dynamics. The Islamic movement, with 16 representatives in parliament, poses a potential challenge, particularly if Syria’s new, yet-undefined government aligns with Jordanian Islamist factions. Turkey’s involvement in Syria, alongside its targeting of Kurdish rebels, adds another layer of complexity to Jordan’s precarious position.
Amid this turmoil, the Jordanian monarchy has found little solace in external alliances. Relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remain tense, and although U.S. intelligence agencies closely monitor the kingdom’s stability, direct support has been limited. Meanwhile, Iran, sidelined by Syria’s new regime, is likely to double down on its efforts to gain influence in Jordan, with ripple effects threatening the broader Middle East.
As Jordan stands at a crossroads, its leaders are acutely aware that the kingdom’s stability is not guaranteed. The unfolding dynamics in Syria and persistent Iranian interference demand constant vigilance to prevent Jordan from becoming the next flashpoint in the region’s ongoing power struggles.
