Commentary
How Europe Can Support the Ethiopia-Somalia Trade Corridor for Regional Stability
A vital infrastructure project linking Ethiopia to Somalia’s ports offers Europe an opportunity to bolster security and trade in the Horn of Africa.
The Horn of Africa stands at a pivotal crossroads as Ethiopia and Somalia embark on efforts to develop a critical trade corridor that would grant Ethiopia access to the sea. This ambitious project, enshrined in the Ankara Declaration of December 2024, aims to bridge decades of tension between the two nations while fostering economic growth and stability. For Europe, this is not just a regional endeavor—it is a strategic opportunity to influence security and development in the Horn of Africa while countering rival powers such as China.
Ethiopia-Somalia Trade Corridor: The Stakes
The envisioned trade corridor connecting Ethiopia to a Somali port—most likely Mogadishu—addresses a pressing need for Ethiopia, a landlocked nation dependent on Djibouti for 95% of its foreign trade. By establishing a direct route to Somalia, Ethiopia aims to diversify its trade links while alleviating internal economic and political tensions.
For Somalia, the project offers an opportunity to assert its sovereignty while generating economic opportunities in a region long plagued by insecurity and extremist threats such as al-Shabaab. The corridor could also provide a boost to Turkey’s investments in Mogadishu, which align with its growing influence in the Horn of Africa.
Security Challenges
The corridor’s construction faces significant hurdles. Al-Shabaab retains a presence in parts of Somalia, and any large-scale infrastructure project will require robust security measures. Local clan militias, supported by the African Union’s new AUSSOM mission, Somali federal forces, and Ethiopian troops, will need to safeguard the corridor from potential extremist incursions.
Additionally, the development must include economic benefits for local communities, particularly the Hawiye clan militias who played a crucial role in liberating territory from al-Shabaab. Ensuring the participation of clans west of the Shabelle River is equally important to consolidate security gains.
Europe’s Role in the Horn of Africa
Europe has a significant stake in the success of this project. The EU has long been a key contributor to Somalia’s development and security, deploying civilian-military missions and serving as the largest financial backer of AU peacekeeping efforts. Germany and Italy, in particular, are well-positioned to lead European involvement in supporting the corridor and Ethiopia-Somalia reconciliation.
By partnering with Turkey, which mediated the Ankara Declaration, Europe can play a pivotal role in advancing negotiations and financing the trade corridor. The EU’s Global Gateway initiative could be instrumental in mobilizing resources for infrastructure development, while collaboration with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and India could broaden financial and technical support.
The Strategic Payoff
A functioning trade corridor would provide numerous benefits:
- For Somalia: Strengthening the federal government’s authority and generating economic growth in liberated areas.
- For Ethiopia: Securing a long-sought sea link without antagonizing neighbors or risking regional conflict.
- For Europe: Expanding influence in the Horn of Africa, countering China’s dominance in infrastructure development, and stabilizing a region critical to global maritime routes.
Conclusion
The development of the Ethiopia-Somalia trade corridor represents an opportunity for Europe to demonstrate its commitment to fostering stability and prosperity in the Horn of Africa. By actively supporting this ambitious project, European nations can reinforce their geoeconomic footprint, counter extremism, and help consolidate peace in a region of vital strategic importance. With the window for progress narrow, decisive action is needed to ensure this initiative succeeds and strengthens regional ties for years to come.
Commentary
Trump’s Focus on Greenland Tied to Russia’s Arctic Militarization
Rising Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic prompts Trump to push for U.S. control of Greenland, citing global security concerns.
President Donald Trump has reignited discussions about U.S. control of Greenland, citing the island’s strategic importance in countering Russia’s expanding Arctic military capabilities. During his inaugural speech, Trump emphasized that Greenland is vital for “international security,” pointing to Russian and Chinese activity in the region and Denmark’s limited capacity to safeguard the massive island.
Spanning over 2.1 million square kilometers, Greenland occupies a pivotal location in the Arctic. According to Marc Jacobsen, an analyst at the Royal Danish Defense College, Greenland is crucial for defending the United States against Russian missile threats. “The shortest route for Russian missiles toward the U.S. is via the North Pole, via Greenland,” Jacobsen explained.
Russia has heavily militarized its Arctic region, establishing bases like Nagurskoye in Siberia, which houses nuclear-capable bombers and advanced missile systems. Russian nuclear submarines patrol Arctic waters, supported by a growing fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers. China has also conducted joint military drills with Russia in the Arctic and seeks access to valuable minerals beneath Greenland’s ice sheets.
As Greenland is part of the Danish Kingdom, Denmark is responsible for its security. However, its military presence on the island is minimal, consisting of just four aging patrol vessels, a surveillance plane, and dog sled patrols.
In response to growing threats, Denmark recently announced a $1.5 billion investment in Arctic security, including surveillance drones, upgraded air bases, and additional personnel. Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen acknowledged that previous governments had neglected Greenland’s security and pledged to strengthen the kingdom’s monitoring capabilities.
Denmark’s efforts aim to address both domestic concerns and U.S. demands for increased surveillance in Greenland. “The military protection of Greenland de facto relies on the U.S.,” said Jon Rahbek-Clemmensen of the Royal Danish Defense College.
The U.S. military has maintained a presence in Greenland since World War II. Today, the Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base) hosts around 200 personnel and serves as a hub for missile warning, defense, and space surveillance systems.
Rahbek-Clemmensen suggested that Trump’s administration might seek to expand U.S. operations in Greenland, potentially positioning it as a staging ground for broader Arctic military activities.
Trump’s insistence on U.S. control over Greenland stems from his concerns about Danish capabilities and the strategic necessity of the island. His rhetoric has been blunt: “You have Russian boats all over the place. You have China boats all over the place, warships. And [Denmark] can’t maintain it.”
While Danish officials have sought to maintain cordial U.S. relations, the term “control” remains ambiguous. Analysts suggest it could refer to increased U.S. military activity rather than territorial ownership, aligning with NATO’s collective security objectives.
Greenland’s importance extends beyond U.S. interests. As Jacobsen noted, a stronger U.S. presence in the Arctic would bolster NATO capabilities. All Arctic states, excluding Russia, are NATO members, making the region a critical frontier for collective defense.
Trump’s renewed focus on Greenland underscores the escalating geopolitical competition in the Arctic, driven by Russia’s militarization and China’s strategic ambitions. Whether the U.S. will increase its military presence on the island or seek direct control remains to be seen. For now, Denmark is racing to bolster its Arctic defenses while balancing relations with its most important ally.
Trump’s Arctic strategy highlights the region’s growing importance as a battleground for global power dynamics, with Greenland at the center of the unfolding contest.
Commentary
Trump Halts U.S. Foreign Aid for 90 Days: Strategic Review Underway
President Trump suspends U.S. foreign aid for 90 days, initiating a comprehensive review to ensure alignment with his administration’s policy priorities.
President Donald Trump signed an executive order on his first day back in office to temporarily suspend all U.S. foreign assistance programs for 90 days. The sweeping move initiates a review process to ensure that aid aligns with the administration’s “America First” policy objectives.
The order targets what Trump described as a “foreign aid industry and bureaucracy” that he claims undermines American interests and destabilizes global peace. “No further United States foreign assistance shall be disbursed in a manner that is not fully aligned with the foreign policy of the President of the United States,” the order states.
Scope of the Suspension
It remains unclear how much funding will be affected immediately, as a significant portion of foreign aid has already been appropriated by Congress and obligated for expenditure. According to the last official accounting under the Biden administration, the U.S. obligated $68 billion in fiscal year 2023 for foreign assistance programs spanning disaster relief, health initiatives, and pro-democracy efforts in 204 countries and regions.
Programs tied to long-term agreements, such as the annual $3.3 billion for Israel, $1.5 billion for Egypt, and $1.7 billion for Jordan, are unlikely to face dramatic cuts due to treaty obligations. However, funding for United Nations agencies and programs, long a target of Republican administrations, could see significant reductions.
Policy Justifications
The review will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who emphasized the need for stringent oversight of foreign aid. “Every dollar we spend, every program we fund, and every policy we pursue must be justified with the answer to three simple questions: Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America more prosperous?” Rubio stated during his confirmation hearing.
This marks a continuation of Trump’s long-standing skepticism toward foreign aid, which he has criticized as ineffective and a misuse of American resources. His first administration slashed funding to various U.N. agencies, including the U.N. Population Fund and peacekeeping missions, and withdrew from the U.N. Human Rights Council.
Key Exemptions and Targets
While aid to Israel, Egypt, and Jordan is largely secure due to their strategic importance and long-term agreements, funding to other U.N. agencies may face significant cuts. In Trump’s first term, payments to the Palestinian Authority and the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) were suspended. UNRWA funding had already been barred by legislation signed by Joe Biden in 2023, further limiting its current scope.
The review could also scrutinize funding for Ukraine, which has received billions in military and humanitarian aid since Russia’s invasion. Trump has been critical of the scale of U.S. support to Ukraine, suggesting a potential shift in priorities.
Implications
The 90-day suspension sets the stage for significant changes to U.S. foreign policy. While supporters argue that the review will ensure taxpayer dollars are used effectively and in alignment with national interests, critics warn that abrupt halts in aid could destabilize vulnerable regions and undermine U.S. global leadership.
With Rubio and the Office of Management and Budget overseeing the process, the results of the review are likely to shape the contours of U.S. foreign policy for years to come. Whether the “America First” agenda will bolster or weaken U.S. influence abroad remains a contentious question as the administration moves forward with its plans.
Commentary
Donald Trump Returns to the White House as 47th President: A New Era or the Same Controversy?
Amid a Polarized Nation, Trump Assumes Office Again, Promising a Revolution and Sweeping Policy Changes
Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States on Monday, marking a dramatic political comeback. Eight years after his first presidency, Trump’s return to the White House ushers in a moment fraught with controversy, anticipation, and promises of sweeping change. His inaugural address is expected to call for a “revolution of common sense,” setting the tone for a presidency aimed at reshaping the American political landscape.
In remarks shared ahead of the ceremony, Trump painted an optimistic vision for the nation, declaring, “My message to Americans today is that it is time for us to once again act with courage, vigor, and the vitality of history’s greatest civilization.” His bold rhetoric underscores the high stakes of his second term, as he seeks to reverse what he calls “American decline.”
Trump’s inauguration, held in the Capitol Rotunda due to an Arctic blast sweeping Washington, was a subdued affair compared to traditional outdoor ceremonies. The move was symbolic in itself, taking place in the same space where his supporters rioted in 2021 to overturn the certification of Joe Biden’s victory. Among the attendees were high-profile billionaires such as Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk, as well as foreign dignitaries, including Chinese Vice President Han Zheng and Argentine President Javier Milei.
Trump’s return is historic in many ways. At 78, he is the oldest person to assume the presidency, breaking Joe Biden’s record. His inauguration also makes him the first president to serve nonconsecutive terms since Grover Cleveland and the first convicted felon to hold the office. His prior conviction on charges of falsifying business records to cover up a payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels cast a shadow over his return, though it has not deterred his supporters.
In his inaugural address, Trump reiterated his campaign pledges to crack down on undocumented immigration, impose strict border controls, and implement steep tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. He vowed immediate action, stating, “By the time the sun sets tomorrow, the invasion of our country will have come to a halt.”
His return also raises questions about the January 6th insurrection. Trump has repeatedly promised to pardon many of the individuals charged in connection with the Capitol riot, referring to them as “patriots” who were unfairly prosecuted. This stance has drawn sharp criticism from opponents who argue it undermines accountability for one of the most divisive events in recent U.S. history.
The ceremony itself highlighted the stark contrasts of Trump’s presidency. Unlike Biden’s inauguration, which Trump skipped four years ago, former presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama attended. However, Trump’s contentious relationship with norms of governance loomed large.
Absent from the day’s events was the traditional parade along Pennsylvania Avenue. Instead, the parade was moved to the Capital One Arena, where marching bands and drill teams celebrated the occasion indoors. Lavish black-tie balls were scheduled for the evening, showcasing Trump’s flair for spectacle and grandeur.
As Trump begins his second term, his critics remain skeptical. While supporters view his return as a chance to revive American strength and prosperity, detractors warn of further polarization and challenges to democratic norms. Trump’s sweeping promises—delivered with his characteristic bravado—set a high bar for what many believe will be a contentious presidency.
For now, the stage is set, and all eyes are on the White House as Donald Trump’s second act unfolds. Whether it will lead to the “thrilling new era of national success” he envisions or deepen the divides in American society remains to be seen. One thing is certain: the Trump presidency, once again, promises to be anything but ordinary.
Commentary
Xi and Trump Discuss Strengthening China-U.S. Ties
Leaders call for mutual respect and win-win cooperation as they seek stability in bilateral relations.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump underscored their commitment to fostering a stable and prosperous relationship between the world’s two largest economies. The exchange highlighted the shared ambition of both nations to address global challenges while managing bilateral differences constructively.
Congratulating Trump on his election victory, Xi described China and the U.S. as two great nations with intertwined destinies. He emphasized their shared goals of improving the lives of their citizens and the potential for both countries to work as partners in driving global prosperity. Xi framed the relationship as mutually beneficial, stating, “Confrontation and conflict should not be a choice.”
Trump reciprocated the warm sentiment, noting his appreciation for Xi’s outreach and expressing eagerness to meet in person. He stressed the importance of maintaining the long-standing friendship between the two nations and collaborating to safeguard world peace.
While emphasizing cooperation, Xi acknowledged the inevitability of differences between the two nations, particularly given their distinct national circumstances. He urged mutual respect and a focus on each other’s core interests as the foundation for resolving disagreements, including sensitive issues like Taiwan, which he called a matter of China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
On the economic front, Xi advocated for a win-win approach to trade relations, highlighting the mutually beneficial nature of their economic ties. The leaders agreed that prioritizing peaceful coexistence and practical collaboration is essential for ensuring sustainable development and global stability.
The conversation also touched on pressing international and regional issues, including the Ukraine crisis and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Both leaders emphasized the need for joint efforts to tackle these challenges, signaling a willingness to strengthen their global diplomatic roles.
To bolster their engagement, Xi and Trump agreed to establish a strategic communication channel to facilitate regular dialogue on major bilateral and international concerns. This move reflects a recognition of their shared responsibility as global powers in shaping the international order.
The call between Xi and Trump marks a significant moment in U.S.-China relations, setting the tone for the next chapter of bilateral engagement. Both leaders expressed optimism about deepening collaboration and managing differences constructively. As Trump prepares to take office, the world will be watching how this relationship evolves, shaping not only the future of both nations but also the broader international landscape.
Commentary
Which Foreign Leaders Are Attending Trump’s Inauguration – And Who Isn’t?
In a break from tradition, Trump invites world leaders, right-wing allies, and rivals to his swearing-in ceremony.
Donald Trump’s second presidential inauguration is shaping up to be one of the most unconventional in US history. Breaking with longstanding tradition, the event will feature an international guest list of sitting and former world leaders, many of whom are closely aligned with Trump’s political ideology. The high-profile ceremony marks Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th president, alongside Vice President-elect JD Vance, in what the administration has framed as a coronation-style celebration of their global influence.
An Unprecedented Guest List
Inaugurations in the US have traditionally been domestic affairs, with foreign representation limited to ambassadors and diplomats. This year, however, Trump has invited a mix of far-right allies and geopolitical rivals. Confirmed attendees include Argentine President Javier Milei, a vocal admirer of Trump, and Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, who hailed Trump’s victory as a win for Latin America. Former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and French far-right politician Éric Zemmour are also expected to attend.
Notably absent from the guest list are traditional US allies such as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Instead, Trump has extended invitations to right-wing European leaders like Alice Weidel of Germany’s AfD party and Santiago Abascal of Spain’s Vox party. These choices highlight Trump’s continued pivot toward populist and nationalist movements, both domestically and abroad.
Strategic Invitations Amid Diplomatic Tensions
Among the more surprising invitees is Chinese Vice President Han Zheng, attending on behalf of President Xi Jinping. This marks a rare instance of direct interaction amid ongoing trade tensions and strategic competition between the US and China. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will also represent Prime Minister Narendra Modi, underscoring the close ties between the two nations.
Trump’s decision to include adversaries like Xi and rivals within NATO signals a complex and calculated diplomatic strategy. By inviting both friends and critics, Trump appears to be positioning himself as a leader willing to engage across ideological divides, even as his guest list alienates key Western allies.
Controversial Exclusions and Reactions
Traditional European allies have reacted coolly to their exclusion. The European Union’s Ursula von der Leyen and NATO officials were notably absent from the list, reflecting Trump’s continued skepticism of multilateral institutions. Macron’s omission is particularly striking given his public attempts to cultivate a working relationship with Trump during his first presidency.
While the event’s guest list reflects Trump’s populist vision, it also raises questions about the future of US foreign relations. By prioritizing ideological alignment over longstanding alliances, the inauguration sets the tone for an administration likely to double down on nationalist policies and transactional diplomacy.
As Trump’s second term begins, the world will be watching closely to see how his relationships with both allies and adversaries evolve—and whether his guest list signals a broader shift in the US’s global strategy.
Commentary
TikTok Restores US Service as Trump Moves to Delay Federal Ban
President-elect Trump vows to extend TikTok’s lifeline, raising questions over national security and US-China tech tensions.
TikTok’s US operations have narrowly avoided a complete shutdown after President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to issue an executive order delaying the federal ban imposed on the app. The ban, a result of bipartisan national security concerns over TikTok’s Chinese ownership, led to its removal from Apple and Google app stores over the weekend. However, Trump’s move provided enough assurance for the app to partially restore service to its 170 million American users.
The controversy over TikTok stems from allegations that its parent company, ByteDance, could share vast amounts of user data with the Chinese government or manipulate its algorithm for political influence. While no concrete evidence has been presented, the outgoing Biden administration defended the ban as a safeguard against potential foreign interference. ByteDance has repeatedly denied these accusations, even as it resisted calls to divest its US operations.
Trump’s proposed extension aims to grant ByteDance additional time to negotiate a sale, possibly involving partial US ownership. His statement hinted at a scenario where the US government or a domestic partner could take a stake in a joint venture, preserving the app’s value while addressing security concerns. However, such a move is likely to face legal and political scrutiny, as the law enforcing TikTok’s ban was designed to limit presidential discretion.
The controversy underscores broader tensions between the US and China over technological dominance and data privacy. Competitors like Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts stand poised to capitalize on TikTok’s uncertain future, while emerging Chinese apps such as Xiaohongshu gain ground in the American market.
While Trump’s executive order may buy TikTok time, the platform remains in a precarious position. With ByteDance rejecting divestment and concerns over enforcement mechanisms for the ban, TikTok’s path forward hinges on negotiations that could redefine its ownership structure and address persistent national security concerns.
Commentary
Sweden’s Largest NATO Deployment Arrives in Latvia Amid Rising Tensions
Swedish forces bolster NATO’s eastern flank, marking a historic shift in the nation’s defense policy.
Sweden has taken a historic step in its NATO engagement, deploying 550 troops to Latvia in what is its largest operation since joining the alliance. The mechanized infantry battalion, escorted by Swedish air and naval forces, arrived in Riga on Saturday to join a Canadian-led multinational brigade stationed along NATO’s eastern flank. This deployment underscores Sweden’s growing commitment to collective defense amid heightened tensions in Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Latvia, a NATO member bordering Russia and its ally Belarus, has become a critical point of focus for the alliance’s deterrence and defense efforts. The presence of Swedish forces bolsters NATO’s eight multinational brigades along the eastern flank, reflecting the alliance’s resolve to counter potential threats and ensure regional stability. Lieutenant Colonel Henrik Rosdahl, commander of the Swedish 71st Battalion, highlighted the significance of the mission, calling it both a historic moment and the “new normal” for Sweden as part of NATO.
This deployment is particularly symbolic given Sweden’s long history of neutrality, which it abandoned after joining NATO in March 2024 alongside Finland, another nation with a legacy of military nonalignment. Both countries shifted their policies in response to Russia’s 2022 aggression against Ukraine, recognizing the need for stronger collective defense measures in an increasingly volatile security landscape.
The Swedish mission in Latvia not only enhances NATO’s readiness but also signifies a deeper integration of Nordic countries into the alliance’s framework. For Sweden, this is not just a logistical milestone but a statement of its newfound role in the global security order, where neutrality has given way to active participation in defense cooperation. As NATO continues to fortify its eastern borders, Sweden’s deployment sends a clear message of unity and resolve to deter aggression in Central Europe.
Commentary
Somalia faces an electoral standoff as the government pushes for its first one-person, one-vote
Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed calls for dialogue to prevent political rifts, as the Somali government insists on implementing historic electoral reforms.
Somalia is on the brink of a political crisis as former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed warns against a unilateral election plan by the federal government, calling for dialogue to resolve disputes. This standoff comes as the government remains adamant about implementing Somalia’s first one-person, one-vote elections, a move seen as a historic step toward democratization but one fraught with resistance from key opposition leaders and regional administrations.
Sheikh Sharif, leader of the Himilo Qaran Party, expressed grave concerns over the government’s approach, cautioning that excluding key stakeholders could deepen divisions in the fragile federal system. The former President called for consultations with Puntland and Jubaland leaders, whose opposition to the electoral framework underscores a significant rift within Somalia’s federal structure.
Sheikh Sharif warned that if the federal government pushes forward unilaterally, his party might organize its own elections. Such a move could lead to parallel elections, a scenario that would likely exacerbate Somalia’s already complex political landscape.
Beyond electoral disagreements, Sheikh Sharif raised the issue of security inequities, pointing out that while top government leaders enjoy robust protection, opposition politicians remain exposed to significant risks. This disparity, he argued, reflects broader governance failures that must be addressed to foster trust and unity ahead of the elections.
Somalia’s Minister of Justice, Hassan Moalim, strongly defended the government’s electoral plans, dismissing opposition concerns as obstacles to progress. Speaking in Mogadishu, Moalim reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to holding free and fair elections that empower citizens to vote without fear or coercion.
The minister emphasized that the electoral reforms, agreed upon in October 2024 by federal leaders and three regional states, are critical for strengthening Somalia’s democracy. However, the opposition from Puntland’s President Said Abdullahi Deni and Jubaland’s President Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe) reveals underlying fractures within the federal system.
Moalim accused opposition groups of hindering the democratic process and obstructing laws designed to facilitate the transition to a one-person, one-vote system. He reiterated the government’s resolve to implement these reforms despite resistance, framing them as a necessary step to enhance governance and accountability.
Without compromise, Somalia risks plunging into further political instability, jeopardizing its fragile progress toward democracy and governance.
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