President-elect Donald Trump’s calls to end the Gaza conflict quickly have introduced a new dynamic to an already fraught situation in the Middle East. His rhetoric, marked by fiery threats and vague promises of action, signals a strong desire to claim credit for resolving the war before his inauguration on January 20, 2025. However, achieving such a resolution faces significant obstacles, shaped by entrenched regional dynamics, competing interests, and the ongoing transition between U.S. administrations.
Trump’s warnings, such as his statement that “all hell is going to break out” if Hamas does not release hostages, are in line with his characteristic bombast. While his comments suggest the possibility of military or economic pressure on Hamas and its external backers, they lack specificity. Analysts suggest that Trump’s approach may include targeting Hamas members outside Gaza, pressuring nations like Iran that support the group, or leveraging financial sanctions to cut off resources.
While such tactics could complicate Hamas’ operations, they are unlikely to drastically change the on-the-ground reality in Gaza, where Israel’s military campaign has already exacted a devastating toll over the past 14 months. Any actions by Trump would likely build on existing Israeli operations rather than introduce dramatically harsher measures.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a delicate balancing act. Domestically, he must appease his ultraright-wing coalition, which has called for annexing parts of Gaza and expanding settlements. Internationally, he must contend with Trump’s apparent disinterest in prolonged occupation or settlement expansion, as the president-elect appears more focused on broadening the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia. These competing pressures could shape Netanyahu’s decisions in the coming months.
Trump’s ambitions for a breakthrough with Saudi Arabia, potentially earning him a Nobel Peace Prize, clash with the Israeli far-right’s demands for territorial expansion. This divergence may force Netanyahu to adjust his policies, especially if Trump leverages U.S. influence to push for concessions.
The ongoing U.S. presidential transition further complicates the situation. The Biden administration has pledged to continue its diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire before leaving office, but its waning influence limits its ability to broker a lasting solution. Biden’s team has engaged with regional players like Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar, yet the prospect of a fundamental shift before January 20 appears slim.
Both Biden and Trump have emphasized the need for a seamless transition in handling the conflict, presenting a unified message of urgency. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan highlighted the importance of this collaboration to prevent adversaries from exploiting perceived vulnerabilities during the transition. However, Hamas is likely calculating that promises made by Biden’s administration may not hold under Trump, potentially delaying negotiations.
Despite Trump’s rhetoric, a rapid resolution remains unlikely. The entrenched nature of the conflict, coupled with Hamas’ resilience and Israel’s strategic interests, presents formidable barriers. Trump’s approach may influence the regional narrative and pressure key actors, but his ability to secure a swift and comprehensive resolution will depend on aligning the disparate interests of the U.S., Israel, and regional players.
The Gaza war’s endgame will likely hinge on whether international actors can present a cohesive vision for post-conflict governance, security, and reconstruction. Trump’s tenure will test whether his hardline rhetoric can translate into meaningful action—or whether the conflict will outlast his administration’s ambitions.
