The World Bank has revised its 2024 economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa, lowering it from 3.4% to 3% due to the severe economic toll of the ongoing civil war in Sudan. Despite this setback, growth is still projected to improve from last year’s 2.4%, largely supported by increased private consumption and investment, according to the latest regional economic outlook report, Africa’s Pulse.

Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s Chief Economist for Africa, described the recovery as being “in slow gear,” signaling that while growth has returned, it remains modest and faces significant challenges. The report suggests that moderating inflation in many African nations will provide some relief, enabling central banks to ease their elevated lending rates.

Sudan’s civil war has had a devastating impact on the region, not only causing widespread destruction and displacement but also dragging down the overall growth rate. The World Bank estimates that if not for the conflict in Sudan, the region’s 2024 growth could have been 0.5% higher, in line with earlier forecasts.

Looking ahead, the World Bank anticipates growth in sub-Saharan Africa to rise to 3.9% in 2024, slightly above the previous projection of 3.8%. However, this forecast remains vulnerable to risks, including ongoing conflicts, climate-related disasters like droughts, floods, and cyclones, and the long-standing issue of high debt levels in many nations.

Country-Specific Projections

South Africa, the region’s most advanced economy, is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2025, reflecting only modest improvements from the 0.7% recorded last year. Nigeria, the continent’s largest economy, is forecast to grow by 3.3% this year, with an increase to 3.6% by 2025. Kenya, East Africa’s richest economy, is expected to see a more robust expansion of 5% in 2023.

The Legacy of the Commodity Supercycle

From 2000 to 2014, sub-Saharan Africa enjoyed an average annual growth rate of 5.3%, buoyed by a global commodity boom. However, this momentum began to slow after commodity prices collapsed, a slowdown further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Dabalen warned that continued sluggish growth could have catastrophic long-term consequences for the region, particularly in efforts to reduce poverty.

A major challenge facing sub-Saharan Africa is the lack of both public and private investment, which has remained weak despite a modest recovery in foreign direct investment (FDI) since 2021. Dabalen stressed the need for significantly higher investment levels to accelerate economic recovery and reduce poverty.

Rising Debt and Its Consequences

Debt remains a critical issue for many countries in the region. High debt service costs are placing enormous pressure on national budgets, particularly in countries like Kenya, which experienced deadly protests against tax hikes earlier this year. Dabalen highlighted the “staggering levels of interest payments” many African countries face, attributing the problem to a shift in borrowing strategies over the past decade. Governments have increasingly turned to financial markets for loans, moving away from lower-cost credit provided by institutions such as the World Bank.

The region’s total external debt has surged to approximately $500 billion, up from $150 billion just 15 years ago, with much of the debt owed to bond market investors and China. Several countries, including Chad, Zambia, Ghana, and Ethiopia, have defaulted on their debt obligations in recent years and are undergoing restructuring processes under the G20’s Common Framework initiative. While Chad, Zambia, and Ghana have completed their restructurings, Ethiopia is still negotiating its debt overhaul.

Dabalen emphasized that unresolved debt issues are causing uncertainty, delaying investment and recovery efforts, and undermining the prospects for both the debtor countries and their creditors.

As the region grapples with these complex challenges, the World Bank’s report underscores the need for a coordinated approach to address the risks of conflict, climate disasters, and unsustainable debt, while also fostering investment to stimulate long-term growth.

Kenya Airways (KQ) announced on Friday that it will suspend all flights to and from Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital, effective October 15, due to operational challenges as part of broader network adjustments. The airline, in a statement from its Nairobi headquarters, emphasized that the decision is aimed at optimizing its route network to enhance operational efficiency and service quality.

The airline reassured its passengers of ongoing efforts to improve its operations while maintaining safety as a priority. “Kenya Airways remains committed to continuously optimizing its flight schedule to better align with demand and performance objectives while ensuring the safety of its crew and passengers,” the statement read.

Passengers with bookings on affected flights made on or before October 4, for travel before October 15, will be contacted for alternative travel arrangements. This includes options for rebooking, refunds, or rerouting, as per the airline’s customer service policy.

In addition to the suspension of flights to Mogadishu, KQ also announced several adjustments to its network to streamline operations ahead of the peak season. From October 27, the airline will introduce an additional flight from Mauritius to Nairobi, which will operate on Wednesdays, Saturdays, and Sundays.

Further changes include an extra flight from Nairobi to the Comoros, starting October 28, increasing service to four weekly flights on Mondays, Thursdays, Fridays, and Saturdays. Similarly, flights to Zanzibar will be boosted to seven weekly services starting the same day.

For passengers traveling to Kigali, Rwanda, KQ will introduce an additional flight on Fridays, effective November 1, raising the total number of weekly flights to Kigali to 25. Additionally, from December 5 to January 4, 2025, two more flights from Nairobi to New York will be available, operating on Thursdays and Saturdays to accommodate the expected rise in demand during the holiday season.

These adjustments, KQ said, are part of its broader strategy to ensure smoother and more efficient operations during peak travel times while maintaining its focus on key markets.

Guinea’s military junta, under the leadership of General Mamady Doumbouya, has implemented a new travel ban on ministers, restricting them from leaving the country without his express permission. In a statement issued on Thursday, the government announced that all ministers currently abroad have been ordered to return immediately, and the travel restrictions will remain in place until the end of 2024.

This sudden directive is reportedly part of a broader effort to curtail public spending and ensure more efficient management of the state’s resources, according to government spokesman Ousmane Gaoual Diallo. While ministers are required to stay within the country, senior officials and diplomats will still be allowed to represent Guinea abroad.

Doumbouya, a former colonel who was promoted to general after seizing power in a coup in September 2021, has since assumed the role of president of Guinea. Initially, the junta had committed to transitioning back to civilian rule by the end of 2024, under pressure from the international community. However, that timeline has since been abandoned.

As the country’s political landscape evolves, speculation has grown regarding Doumbouya’s intentions in future elections. Several members of his government have voiced support for him to potentially run in the next presidential race, raising questions about Guinea’s political trajectory and the future of civilian governance.

The battle between Kenya’s President and his Deputy will reshape the nation’s future.

Kenya’s political scene is heating up as President William Ruto and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua lock horns in a showdown that could determine both men’s political fates. Gachagua, embattled by 11 charges ranging from economic crimes to violations of the constitution, is now desperately fighting off an impeachment motion set to be voted on in Parliament. His last-minute attempt to block the process through multiple legal petitions reflects a man cornered but unwilling to go down without a fight.

The looming vote presents an existential crisis not just for Gachagua but for President Ruto himself. If Ruto’s parliamentary troops succeed in ousting the Deputy President, it would remove a potential threat to his political dominance, but the cost could be steep. This battle isn’t just about impeachment; it’s about the future of power in Kenya.

For Gachagua, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Impeachment would not only end his tenure but also bar him from holding public office, dashing his ambitions to succeed Ruto in 2027 or 2032. On the other hand, surviving this political assassination would solidify Gachagua’s status as the undisputed king of the Mt. Kenya region. He would emerge from this saga even stronger, able to wield considerable influence in future alliances and deals.

The silence from President Ruto on the matter has been deafening, but insiders suggest his fingerprints are all over the push to oust Gachagua. The tension between the two has been simmering for months, and this showdown has been a long time coming. With Gachagua’s star rising in Mt. Kenya, a key electoral base, Ruto faces the dangerous possibility that the impeachment bid could backfire, turning into a referendum on his own popularity.

Gachagua has been playing grievance politics masterfully, portraying himself as the victim of a political witch hunt. In Kenya, such a strategy often works wonders. Just look at President Ruto, who rode a wave of resentment politics to power in 2022. The ICC cases against both Ruto and former President Uhuru Kenyatta had initially been seen as career-ending, but they weaponized those indictments into a rallying cry that helped them win in 2013. Could Gachagua be pulling a similar move?

There’s a strong possibility that this impeachment fight could fracture Ruto’s own political coalition. In the regions where Gachagua holds sway, particularly Mt. Kenya, the impeachment has become a symbol of a larger battle between elites in Nairobi and the so-called “hustlers” that Ruto himself once championed. If Gachagua turns the impeachment into a populist cause, Ruto could find himself losing ground where he can least afford it. The political fallout could be severe, with youth-led protests already shaking the nation earlier this year over issues like the high cost of living.

But for President Ruto, losing this battle is not an option. With his administration already facing economic instability and internal rebellion, seeing off Gachagua would allow him to reassert control over his government. Failure to remove his rebellious deputy would not only weaken his grip on power but would also embolden other dissenters within his United Democratic Alliance.

Gachagua’s fate will be sealed in the coming weeks, but the outcome will reverberate far beyond the walls of Parliament. Both men stand to lose everything, and Kenya’s political future hangs in the balance.

Amid energy ambitions, Türkiye’s flagship vessel heads to Somali waters, seeking oil and gas reserves in uncharted territories.

Türkiye is taking bold steps into Somalia’s untapped energy reserves, sending its flagship research vessel, the Oruc Reis, on a seismic survey mission in search of oil and natural gas. Departing from Istanbul, the vessel is tasked with mapping potential drilling sites off the Somali coast. Backed by naval frigates, this seven-month operation, covering three licensed zones, reflects a high-stakes endeavor in Türkiye’s energy strategy. The mission is part of a broader geopolitical move, symbolizing Türkiye’s growing influence in East Africa’s strategic waters.

The Oruc Reis, named after the famous Ottoman naval commander, is no stranger to exploration, having completed surveys spanning 23,000 square kilometers in the Mediterranean. This new venture is particularly significant as it explores Somali waters for the first time. With its advanced 3D seismic technology, the ship will provide critical data to help pinpoint resource-rich locations, potentially altering the region’s energy landscape.

The Somali coast is uncharted territory when it comes to seismic exploration, and Turkish officials, including Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, are cautiously optimistic about the oil indicators in the area. The Turkish Petroleum Corporation’s recent agreements with Somalia have granted Türkiye exclusive exploration rights, further solidifying its foothold in the Horn of Africa.

The mission’s symbolic weight goes beyond oil—it is a statement of Türkiye’s rising energy ambitions. As global powers jostle for influence in Africa’s emerging energy markets, Türkiye is positioning itself as a key player in this strategic arena, where economic interests and political dynamics intersect.

Turkey to Deploy Frigates to Guard Energy Exploration Ship in Somalia

Turkey’s Strategic Push into Africa: Five Key Areas of Influence

U.K. to Transfer Sovereignty of Chagos Islands to Mauritius in Historic Agreement

The British government announced its decision to hand over sovereignty of the Chagos Islands, a long-disputed archipelago in the Indian Ocean, to Mauritius. The agreement, reached after two years of negotiations, secures the future of the strategically important U.K.-U.S. military base at Diego Garcia while addressing decades of colonial injustices.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy emphasized the agreement’s role in safeguarding global security, particularly through the U.S. base used for operations in the Middle East and Africa. Diego Garcia will remain under U.K. sovereignty for 99 years, ensuring the continuity of defense operations essential to both nations.

This resolution also marks a significant step in correcting historical wrongs. In the 1960s and 1970s, approximately 1,500 indigenous Chagossians were forcibly displaced from their homeland to accommodate the military base. While the current agreement creates a resettlement fund for those exiled, many within the Chagossian community have criticized their exclusion from negotiations, viewing the deal as insufficient in addressing the full scale of past abuses.

Mauritius Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth hailed the agreement as the completion of his country’s decolonization, a symbolic victory for post-colonial justice. He expressed hope for the eventual return of displaced Chagossians, many of whom reside in Mauritius, the U.K., and Seychelles. However, activists continue to demand full inclusion in shaping the future of the islands and the well-being of the remaining diaspora.

The international response has been largely positive, with U.S. President Joe Biden applauding the move as a “historic agreement” that solidifies the critical role of Diego Garcia in global security. Nevertheless, dissent within the U.K., particularly from Conservative Party members, signals ongoing debates about the broader geopolitical ramifications. Critics, like MP Tom Tugendhat, warn of potential security risks, particularly concerning fears of Chinese influence in the region.

The finalization of this agreement marks a new chapter for the Chagos Islands, underscoring the deep, intertwined legacies of colonialism and modern geopolitics. It reflects both the complexities of strategic military interests and the enduring fight for justice by displaced communities.

Denmark’s incoming envoy to Ethiopia highlights the nation’s key role in stabilizing the Horn of Africa and promoting peace across the continent.

Ethiopia’s leadership in advancing peace and security in Africa, particularly in the Horn of Africa, remains vital to stabilizing the region, according to Denmark’s Ambassador-Designate to Ethiopia, Sune Krogstrup underscored Ethiopia’s longstanding commitment to fostering regional stability and its distinguished record in international peacekeeping missions.

“Ethiopia plays a very important role when it comes to peace and security on the continent, particularly in the Horn of Africa,” Krogstrup stated. He noted that Ethiopia’s proactive engagement with neighboring countries is essential in creating an environment marked by peace and stability.

Ethiopia has been a cornerstone of peace initiatives in the volatile Horn of Africa region, where it has often paid a high price in its efforts to restore stability. Over the years, Ethiopia’s commitment to regional peace has produced tangible successes, including counterterrorism gains that have strengthened the security of the entire region.

This leadership extends beyond the continent. Ethiopia’s contributions to global peacekeeping operations are among the most notable in the world, as the country has been a consistent participant in United Nations (UN)-authorized missions since 1951, beginning with its involvement in the Korean War.

Ethiopia’s contributions to UN peacekeeping missions are extensive, with more than 180,000 Ethiopian peacekeepers having served across various conflict zones since the country first engaged in UN peace operations. Ethiopia’s long-standing dedication to peacekeeping reflects its deep-rooted belief in collective security and multilateralism.

“Ethiopian men and women have played a critical role in supporting the UN’s mission to advance peace in the world’s most challenging hotspots,” Krogstrup noted, lauding Ethiopia’s global and regional efforts.

As one of the top troop-contributing nations, Ethiopia’s commitment to peacekeeping continues to underscore its influence in the maintenance of international peace and security.

Acknowledging the complex challenges facing the Horn of Africa, Krogstrup expressed optimism about Ethiopia’s continued leadership. “This region has been challenged by differences in opinions on critical issues, but we are hopeful that Ethiopia will play its part in ensuring the Horn of Africa moves towards a more secure and peaceful environment,” he said.

The Danish envoy also reaffirmed Denmark’s long-standing support for peace and security initiatives on the continent, particularly through partnerships with the African Union (AU) and other regional organizations.

“We will continue to be a close partner, not just to Ethiopia, but to broader efforts on the continent,” Krogstrup emphasized, reiterating Denmark’s commitment to supporting peace and stability in Africa.

As Ethiopia continues to navigate the challenges of regional conflict and security, its role as a key player in both African and global peace efforts remains indispensable. Through collaboration with international partners, including Denmark, Ethiopia is poised to sustain its contributions to peace and stability in the years to come.

Addis Ababa emphasizes regional development goals while Somalia and Egypt express concerns over territorial and security implications.

Ethiopia’s recent agreement with Somaliland has drawn strong reactions from neighboring countries, particularly Somalia and Egypt, as it stirs debate over regional sovereignty, economic partnerships, and geopolitical stability. At the United Nations General Assembly, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Taye Atske-Selassie defended the pact, portraying it as a regional development initiative in line with Ethiopia’s broader goals of fostering growth in the Horn of Africa. However, his remarks were met with sharp criticisms from Somalia and Egypt, each highlighting different concerns about Ethiopia’s expanding regional footprint.

Ethiopia’s Defense: A Push for Regional Development

Ethiopia’s foreign minister, in his speech, characterized the memorandum of understanding with Somaliland as a legitimate and strategic effort aimed at shared prosperity. Addis Ababa views this deal as an extension of its economic goals, especially as a landlocked country seeking greater access to regional maritime trade routes. According to Taye, the agreement does not infringe on Somalia’s territorial integrity but is in line with ongoing efforts to enhance regional cooperation and development.

In stressing the importance of unity against common threats, particularly terrorism, Ethiopia appealed to Somalia to prioritize collective security concerns over territorial disputes. Ethiopia’s role in supporting anti-terrorism operations in Somalia, particularly against al-Shabaab, was also highlighted as evidence of its commitment to regional stability.

Somalia’s Rebuttal: Accusations of Territorial Violation

In a firm counterpoint, Somalia’s Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre accused Ethiopia of encroaching on Somali territory under the guise of securing access to the sea. Barre framed Ethiopia’s actions as a direct threat to Somali sovereignty, stating that Addis Ababa’s moves were unnecessary and unlawful.

This diplomatic friction signals growing unease in Somalia about Ethiopia’s expanding influence in the Horn of Africa, particularly in relation to its need for maritime access, which Somalia perceives as a strategic encroachment.

Egypt’s Concern: Linking the Nile and Regional Politics

Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty also weighed in on Ethiopia’s actions, although his primary focus was on the contentious issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). By linking Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland to its unilateral actions regarding the Nile, Egypt painted a picture of a country disregarding the interests of its neighbors for national gain. Cairo’s concern lies in what it perceives as Ethiopia’s overreach in both regional water management and now territorial negotiations.

The Nile River dispute has long strained relations between Ethiopia and Egypt, with the latter fearing the GERD will restrict its access to vital water resources. Egypt’s intervention in the Somaliland issue appears aimed at reinforcing its broader concerns about Ethiopia’s growing assertiveness in the region.

A Regional Leader Under Scrutiny

Ethiopia’s defense of its policies comes at a time when the Horn of Africa is grappling with several challenges, from terrorism to humanitarian crises. Addis Ababa seeks to assert itself as a regional leader, but this ambition is increasingly met with pushback from neighboring countries wary of its growing influence.

The diplomatic rift at the UN reflects the complex interplay of national interests, security concerns, and regional development aspirations. Ethiopia’s emphasis on partnership and growth is contrasted by Somalia’s territorial fears and Egypt’s broader geopolitical worries, setting the stage for continued tensions in the Horn of Africa.

Navigating Diplomatic Tensions

Ethiopia’s Somaliland deal highlights its strategic push for economic expansion and regional cooperation, but it has sparked concerns among neighboring nations about sovereignty and regional security. Somalia and Egypt’s objections, while grounded in different issues, point to a growing diplomatic challenge for Ethiopia as it seeks to balance its domestic ambitions with regional stability.

As Ethiopia defends its actions on the international stage, the broader regional dynamics will continue to evolve, with significant implications for peace, security, and development in the Horn of Africa.