Middle East
Post-War Syria: Challenges Loom as Rebel Coalition Faces Uncertain Transition

With Assad overthrown, Syria’s fractured rebel coalition, led by HTS, struggles to navigate the complexities of peacebuilding and power-sharing.
The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad marks a historic victory for Syria’s rebel forces, but the celebrations are tempered by an uncertain future. Drawing lessons from post-conflict transitions in countries like Libya, Uganda, and Ethiopia, Syria faces the risk of internal fragmentation and renewed violence as competing factions vie for influence in the absence of a stable authority.
The Military Operations Command, the coalition that toppled Assad, has already disbanded in all but name. The dominant faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, remains the primary force, but its own internal structure—a merger of at least four separate militias—reflects the precarious nature of alliances forged during the conflict.
Al-Sharaa’s pledge to disband all factions and integrate fighters into a national defense ministry is ambitious but fraught with challenges. History suggests that rival factions are likely to emerge, challenging HTS’s legitimacy and threatening the fragile unity of Syria’s transitional period.
Syria’s post-conflict trajectory mirrors challenges seen in Libya, South Sudan, and Uganda:
Fragmentation of Coalitions: In Libya, the National Transition Council quickly fractured into rival militias, resulting in prolonged instability. Similar dynamics could play out in Syria as smaller factions, uncertain of their place in a centralized system, switch allegiances to strengthen their positions.
Shifting Loyalties: Opportunistic realignments among militias, seen in both Libya and South Sudan, could undermine HTS’s efforts to consolidate power and create a unified defense structure.
High-Stakes National Politics: HTS’s vision for a unified state without federal regions raises the stakes for national elections, making the political game a zero-sum contest prone to violent outcomes, as demonstrated by Uganda’s post-Amin elections.
Ethiopia’s post-Derg transition attempted to devolve power to ethnic regions, providing former rebel factions with localized stakes. While imperfect, this approach mitigated some of the risks associated with centralized governance.
In Syria, however, the lack of clear ethno-territorial bases for most militias and HTS’s rejection of federalism as a political model limit the viability of such a solution. The emphasis on a unified state places immense pressure on the transitional government to navigate competing interests without devolving into renewed conflict.
While elections are a cornerstone of democratic transitions, their timing and structure can determine whether they stabilize or destabilize a nation. In Uganda, elections in 1980 reignited rebellion when one faction felt marginalized. Similarly, in Syria, elections held prematurely or without inclusive power-sharing mechanisms risk sidelining factions and provoking violent reprisals.
Syria’s post-Assad transition faces significant hurdles:
Internal Rivalries: The diverse and often overlapping interests of militias under the HTS umbrella threaten to fracture the coalition.
Uncertain Governance: The absence of federalist structures or other mechanisms to provide localized stakes may intensify competition for national power.
External Influences: Regional and international actors, including Turkey, Iran, and Russia, may exacerbate internal divisions as they seek to shape Syria’s future.
Syria’s post-war path to peace is fraught with complexities. While HTS’s leadership offers a temporary anchor, the fragmented nature of the coalition, the lack of decentralized governance, and the high stakes of national politics present significant risks of renewed violence.
Learning from past transitions, Syria’s future stability hinges on building inclusive governance structures, carefully timing elections, and addressing the underlying grievances that fueled years of conflict. Without such measures, the celebration of Assad’s fall may soon give way to a new chapter of uncertainty and violence.
Middle East
U.S. Reimposes Maximum Pressure on Iran with New Sanctions Targeting Oil Exports

The U.S. is intensifying its campaign to squeeze Iran, reimposing “maximum pressure” with a new round of sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports. This move marks a fresh attempt by the Trump administration to tackle Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but it’s far from a straightforward operation. On February 24, 2025, the U.S. sanctioned 16 entities and vessels tied to Iran’s oil industry, underscoring the global web that keeps Tehran’s revenue flowing. From oil brokers in the UAE to tanker operators in China, the sanctions stretch far beyond Iran’s borders, demonstrating the complexity of targeting Iran’s economic lifeline.
But, as always, there are loopholes. Ships can turn off transponders and engage in ship-to-ship transfers, making enforcement an uphill battle. Iran has adapted to sanctions over the years, becoming adept at sidestepping restrictions. Even with this new initiative, it remains a daunting task for the U.S. to choke off Iran’s oil exports entirely, especially with countries like China, India, and the UAE reluctant to join the confrontation.
The Trump administration, while aiming for an agreement, is prepared to up the ante if necessary. Yet, the sanctions alone might not be enough to curb Iran’s ambitions. It’s a high-stakes game of cat and mouse on the global stage, with every move scrutinized for signs of tension or cooperation, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Middle East
Hostage Swaps Continue as Israel and Hamas Test Fragile Ceasefire

Israel and Hamas continue their hostage swap under a tense ceasefire, with three Israeli hostages freed in exchange for 369 Palestinian prisoners. Uncertainty looms over the truce’s future.
The tense ceasefire between Israel and Hamas remains intact—for now. In a high-stakes exchange, Hamas released three Israeli hostages on Saturday, handing them over to the Red Cross in Khan Younis before Israeli forces secured them. In return, Israel freed 369 Palestinian prisoners, welcomed in Ramallah with national flags and cheering crowds. This marks the sixth such exchange under the fragile truce agreement brokered in January.
Among the released were Israeli-American Sagui Dekel Chen, Israeli-Russian Sasha Troufanov, and Israeli-Argentinian Iair Horn—all from Kibbutz Nir Oz, one of the hardest-hit communities in Hamas’s October 7 attack. While families rejoiced at their return, concerns grow over the well-being of those still held captive. The last batch of hostages arrived home looking emaciated, raising alarms about conditions in Hamas custody.
Tensions spiked earlier in the week as Hamas threatened to halt releases, accusing Israel of ceasefire violations through continued airstrikes and aid blockades. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed these claims, warning that military operations would resume if hostages were not released by Saturday noon. The ultimatum appears to have worked, but the situation remains volatile.
In New York, the U.N. Secretary-General called for a permanent ceasefire, citing the urgent need for humanitarian relief, as over 600 aid trucks entered Gaza. Meanwhile, Arab nations rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal for a forced Palestinian displacement, denouncing it as a violation of international law.
Despite Hamas’s insistence on upholding the truce, the road ahead is uncertain. With the ceasefire’s first phase set to last six weeks, Israel demands the release of more captives, while Hamas maneuvers for leverage. Any misstep could shatter the deal, plunging the region back into full-scale conflict.
Middle East
Israel Stands Firm on Lebanon Withdrawal, Rejects French Peacekeeper Plan

Israel rejects France’s plan to replace IDF forces with UN peacekeepers in Lebanon, prolonging its military presence in five key locations amid tensions with Hezbollah.
Israel has flatly rejected a French-backed plan to replace IDF forces with United Nations peacekeepers, choosing instead to maintain a prolonged military presence in five critical positions inside southern Lebanon. The proposal, which included French troops under UNIFIL’s mandate, was intended to facilitate Israel’s withdrawal under a ceasefire deal brokered by Washington in November.
With Hezbollah still entrenched in the region, Israel is unwilling to cede strategic positions without ironclad security guarantees. The original withdrawal deadline of January 26 was already pushed to February 18, but Israeli officials are now requesting an additional 10-day extension, signaling deep skepticism about Lebanese and UN forces securing the area.
Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, speaking after a Paris conference on Syria, insisted that France’s plan meets Israel’s security needs. “It is now up to us to convince the Israelis that this solution allows a complete and final withdrawal,” Barrot said. But Tel Aviv remains unconvinced, wary of repeating past mistakes where UNIFIL forces failed to prevent Hezbollah’s expansion.
US officials appear to be backing Israel’s cautious approach. Reports suggest Washington has authorized a “long-term” Israeli presence in the area, implicitly recognizing the IDF’s strategic necessity in countering Hezbollah. The delay underscores the broader regional chessboard—any premature withdrawal could embolden Iran-backed forces and shift the balance of power along the northern border.
As diplomatic maneuvering continues, Israel’s refusal to abandon its positions sets the stage for further clashes. Hezbollah’s next move will determine whether this standoff leads to another escalation or forces a new security realignment on Israel’s terms.
Middle East
Syria’s Foreign Minister Visits EU as Paris Hosts High-Stakes Transition Talks

Amid regional instability, Syria’s first EU visit since Assad’s fall signals a push for economic aid and political stability.
Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani is making history with his first European Union visit, attending a Paris conference aimed at securing a smooth transition for the war-torn nation. Days after President Emmanuel Macron extended an invitation to Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, global powers are stepping in to prevent further destabilization.
The high-stakes meeting brings together Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Lebanon, and key Western allies to coordinate aid, discuss transitional justice, and weigh potential sanctions relief. However, the United States is keeping its involvement at a minimum, raising questions about Washington’s long-term stance on Syria’s future.
With the humanitarian crisis worsening—especially in the northeast due to U.S. aid cuts—donor nations are assessing how to maintain stability without emboldening rival factions. Tensions between Turkey and Syria over Kurdish forces loom large, with Ankara vowing to eradicate “terrorist elements” from the region.
While the EU is considering easing sanctions, internal divisions—particularly from Cyprus and Greece over maritime disputes—could stall progress. Yet, with the region in flux and Western influence waning, Syria’s diplomatic reintegration may be inevitable.
As global players recalibrate their Syria strategy, one question remains: Can this fragile transition withstand both internal and external pressures?
Middle East
Egypt Threatens to Scrap Peace Deal with Israel Over U.S. Aid Cut Threats

Cairo warns of consequences if Trump follows through on halting American aid over Gaza refugee resettlement.
The Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty is now on shaky ground. Cairo has issued a stark warning that if U.S. President Donald Trump makes good on his threat to cut aid over Egypt’s refusal to accept displaced Palestinians from Gaza, the decades-old peace deal with Israel could be in jeopardy.
The fallout is already escalating. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has indefinitely suspended his meeting with Trump amid what is now the worst U.S.-Egypt diplomatic crisis in 30 years. Trump’s attempt to pressure Egypt and Jordan into taking in Palestinian refugees as part of his controversial Gaza reconstruction plan has backfired, strengthening Arab resistance rather than forcing compliance.
Egypt, the third-largest recipient of U.S. aid, has already begun preparing emergency measures to counteract the potential financial shock of losing its $2.1 billion annual package. Meanwhile, Jordan—another key U.S. ally and major aid recipient—is openly defying Washington’s demands. King Abdullah II has secured a strategic partnership with the European Union and continues to rally regional opposition to any forced Palestinian displacement.
Trump’s approach risks unraveling longstanding Middle Eastern alliances. Egypt and Jordan remain vital partners in regional stability, but their patience is wearing thin. If the U.S. withdraws aid, it could push Cairo and Amman toward alternative partnerships—potentially with adversaries of Israel and the West.
For Israel, the silence is deafening. While Netanyahu welcomes Trump’s vision, he risks destabilizing Israel’s two closest Arab allies. If Egypt follows through on its threat to reconsider its peace treaty, the entire regional security structure could be upended, with severe implications for Israel’s security and U.S. influence in the region.
Will Trump push forward with his ultimatum, or will Washington backtrack to prevent an irreversible geopolitical shift?
Middle East
Trump: U.S. to Take Over Gaza and Reshape Middle East Power Dynamics

Trump Declares U.S. Control Over Gaza, Plans to Transform It into “Middle East Riviera”
Donald Trump just dropped a geopolitical bombshell—the U.S. will take ownership of Gaza. No half-measures, no diplomacy games. Standing alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump declared that Washington is moving beyond relocation plans and will directly control the war-ravaged territory, promising a future where Gaza is transformed into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”
This is more than just another bold statement from Trump—it’s a seismic shift in Middle Eastern power dynamics. The U.S. has historically played kingmaker in the region, but outright ownership of Gaza? That’s next-level empire-building. Trump envisions a full-scale economic development project, claiming that “everybody loves the idea” of the U.S. taking charge, developing infrastructure, and creating jobs. Forcing Hamas into irrelevance, breaking Palestinian resistance, and cementing Israel’s regional dominance—that’s the endgame.
Trump didn’t rule out U.S. military deployment to enforce this vision. “If it’s necessary, we’ll do that,” he said, reinforcing his long-held belief in force over negotiation. This move directly challenges the Arab League, the Palestinian Authority, and even U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia, who previously rejected Trump’s relocation plan for Gazans. But for Trump, diplomacy is dead—power is seized, not negotiated.
The timing couldn’t be more strategic. As Israel weighs its next steps against Hamas, Trump is simultaneously escalating his “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, ordering aides to strangle Tehran’s oil exports and cripple its nuclear ambitions. The message is clear: Iran and its proxies—like Hamas and Hezbollah—will be crushed, and the U.S.-Israel alliance will dominate.
Trump’s vision for Gaza is nothing short of an American outpost in the Middle East, a permanent bastion of U.S. influence. Whether the world likes it or not, Gaza is now on Trump’s chessboard, and he’s making moves that could redraw the entire region’s future.
Middle East
Manbij Bombing: Syria’s Descent into Chaos Deepens

The deadly car bomb attack in Manbij that claimed 15 lives and wounded 15 more is the latest sign that post-Assad Syria is spiraling further into unpredictable and violent instability. Just three days after another bombing in the city, the streets of Manbij—once a key battleground between ISIS, Kurdish forces, and Turkish-backed militias—have again become a flashpoint for terror and retribution.
With no immediate claims of responsibility, the attack raises questions about the fractured power struggle gripping Syria since Bashar al-Assad’s downfall in December. The Turkey-backed takeover of Manbij in December, following a retreat by the Kurdish-led SDF, already set the stage for a new era of violence. The question now is: who is behind this attack, and what does it signal for Syria’s future?
The usual suspects include remnants of ISIS sleeper cells, Kurdish insurgents seeking revenge, or even rival factions within the new Turkish-backed administration. The rapid collapse of Assad’s rule, culminating in the HTS-led offensive that ousted him on December 8, has left Syria without a clear center of power. With Abu Mohammed al-Julani now claiming Syria’s transitional presidency, the country is a battlefield of factions, each vying for dominance.
The implications of this attack go beyond Manbij. Whoever is responsible is sending a clear message: Syria’s war is far from over, and the post-Assad era could be even bloodier than the one that came before it. The world should brace for more bombings, assassinations, and territorial shifts—because Syria’s new rulers are already at war with the ghosts of the past and the uncertainty of the future.
Middle East
Rafah Redux: Can the EU’s Role Bring Stability?

The European Union redeploys its Rafah mission amid delicate regional dynamics and lingering uncertainties.
The European Union is reviving its border assistance mission at the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt to support the fragile ceasefire. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas emphasized the mission’s importance in facilitating medical evacuations for wounded Gazans and rebuilding trust in the region. This marks a return for EUBAM Rafah, first established in 2005 but suspended in 2007 due to instability following Hamas’ takeover of Gaza.
The mission’s return is backed by requests from Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and Egypt. However, the arrangement places stringent international controls on the crossing to regulate movement and prevent the passage of weapons, while ensuring humanitarian access. Talks with Egypt and Israel aim to implement these measures alongside Palestinian Authority participation.
Despite optimism, the challenges from 2005-2006—when the agreement faltered due to Hamas’ rise—remain fresh in memory. The mission’s effectiveness depends on coordination, regional stability, and adherence to strict security protocols. While the EU’s return signals hope for bolstered international engagement, past failures underline the complexities of balancing security with humanitarian priorities in one of the world’s most contentious regions.
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