Riyadh seeks advanced fifth-generation stealth aircraft from Türkiye, highlighting regional defense shifts and strengthening bilateral ties.

Saudi Arabia has entered advanced negotiations with Türkiye to acquire 100 Kaan fifth-generation fighter jets, underscoring a significant regional defense realignment. The discussions, held during a high-level meeting in Istanbul, included strategic elements such as technology transfer and potential joint production, reflecting Riyadh’s drive to diversify its defense procurement and reduce dependence on U.S. suppliers.

This potential deal is emblematic of Saudi Arabia’s broader strategy under Vision 2030, which emphasizes self-reliance in defense production and modernization of its military capabilities. The Kaan fighter jets, developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), offer cutting-edge features such as stealth design, advanced radar systems, and interoperability with drones and other platforms, positioning them as a competitive alternative to the U.S.-made F-35, which remains inaccessible to Saudi Arabia due to political and human rights concerns.

The Strategic Appeal of the Kaan Fighter Jet

The Kaan, Türkiye’s flagship fifth-generation fighter, boasts advanced capabilities including super cruise speed, a combat range of 1,100 kilometers, and an AESA radar capable of detecting targets over 100 kilometers away. With its internal weapon bays and reduced radar cross-section, the Kaan meets the modern demands of stealth and multirole functionality. Initial versions are powered by General Electric engines, with future iterations set to integrate domestically developed powerplants.

For Saudi Arabia, acquiring the Kaan represents an opportunity to bridge its fifth-generation fighter capability gap. The Royal Saudi Air Force currently operates F-15s, Typhoons, and Tornadoes but lacks a platform with the advanced features offered by the Kaan. Importantly, Türkiye’s willingness to explore technology transfer and joint production aligns with Saudi Arabia’s ambitions to localize defense manufacturing.

Deepening Türkiye-Saudi Defense Ties

This negotiation follows a series of high-profile defense collaborations between Türkiye and Saudi Arabia, including a $3.1 billion deal for Baykar AKINCI drones in 2023. Bilateral defense relations have intensified, with both nations pursuing joint projects and technology transfer agreements. Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI) has actively partnered with Turkish firms like Aselsan and Roketsan, focusing on aerospace technologies and unmanned systems.

Türkiye’s growing prominence as a defense exporter is rooted in historical efforts to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers. Its indigenous programs, like the Bayraktar TB2 and the Anka series drones, have proven operationally effective in conflicts from Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh, cementing Türkiye’s reputation as a reliable producer of advanced yet cost-effective military platforms.

Regional and Geopolitical Implications

Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of the Kaan fighter jets reflects a broader shift in the Middle Eastern defense landscape. U.S. restrictions on the F-35, coupled with regional security challenges, have pushed Riyadh to seek alternatives. The potential deal with Türkiye not only meets Saudi Arabia’s operational needs but also strengthens its defense ties with a NATO member, diversifying its strategic partnerships.

For Türkiye, a successful sale would solidify its role as a global defense player. The agreement would enhance its economic and geopolitical influence, especially as it continues to expand its export footprint in the defense sector.

However, the potential sale also carries strategic risks. It could further strain U.S.-Saudi relations, already tested by disagreements over human rights and regional policies. Additionally, it raises questions about how a strengthened Saudi air force might impact the region’s military balance, particularly in the context of tensions with Iran.

Conclusion

The prospective deal for 100 Kaan fighter jets represents a critical juncture in Saudi-Turkish relations and the broader defense dynamics of the Middle East. As Riyadh moves to modernize its military and reduce dependency on U.S. technology, Türkiye’s Kaan program offers a viable and strategic solution.

This development underscores Türkiye’s emergence as a key player in the global defense industry while highlighting the evolving priorities of Saudi Arabia under Vision 2030. If finalized, the agreement could reshape defense collaborations in the region, signaling a new era of strategic autonomy for both nations.

Amid EU skepticism and fiery rhetoric, Milanović heads for a likely runoff against pro-European rival Dragan Primorac.

As Croatia’s “super election year” concludes, Zoran Milanović, the country’s controversial president, is poised to secure reelection. Known for his fiery populism and Euroskeptic stance, Milanović leads polls with 39% heading into the December 29 presidential election. While his victory in the first round is unlikely to reach the required majority, a runoff against Dragan Primorac, the candidate of the ruling Christian Democratic Union (HDZ), is expected on January 12.

The animosity between Milanović and Prime Minister Andrej Plenković has defined the campaign. Milanović, a former prime minister and member of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has used sharp rhetoric to position himself as a nationalist critic of the EU and NATO. He has derided Plenković as a “dictator” and accused him of being subservient to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Milanović has also criticized Western sanctions on Russia and blocked Croatia’s participation in NATO missions supporting Ukraine, aligning himself with more isolationist and anti-European policies.

Plenković and his party have framed the election as a choice between aligning with the West or drifting toward Eastern influence. He has championed pro-European policies and military support for Ukraine, presenting his party’s candidate, Dragan Primorac, as the alternative to Milanović. However, Primorac, polling at 24%, has struggled to gain traction. Observers cite his lack of charisma and his association with scandals plaguing Plenković’s administration, including the resignation or dismissal of 31 HDZ ministers this year due to corruption allegations.

The HDZ’s latest scandal involving Health Minister Vili Beroš, arrested in November on corruption charges, has further undermined Primorac’s campaign. Public skepticism about the HDZ’s integrity continues to overshadow its platform, giving Milanović an edge despite his polarizing rhetoric.

Milanović’s popularity stems from his ability to capitalize on public discontent over corruption, immigration, and economic challenges, presenting himself as a nationalist defender against perceived EU overreach. His sharp critique of HDZ’s handling of these issues resonates with a significant portion of voters, despite—or perhaps because of—his combative style.

If the election proceeds to a runoff, Milanović’s populist appeal and the HDZ’s tarnished reputation make him the clear favorite. However, his reelection would solidify Croatia’s divided political landscape, with a nationalist president and a pro-European prime minister locked in ongoing rivalry.

As Croatia navigates its future within the EU, the outcome of this election will shape its domestic and international policies, particularly in relation to Ukraine, regional cooperation, and relations with Brussels. Milanović’s reelection could signal a continued shift toward nationalist populism, while a surprise victory for Primorac would reaffirm Croatia’s commitment to European integration.

Backed by Iran, Houthis emerge as a formidable threat with advanced technology and strategic resilience, posing unique challenges for Israel.

As tensions escalate in the Middle East, the Houthis have emerged as a significant and underestimated threat to Israel, with officials acknowledging their technological advancements and strategic resilience. Often seen as the last active member of Iran’s axis, the Houthis present unique challenges for Israel’s military efforts, which now extend to over a thousand miles away in Yemen’s rugged and densely populated terrain.

Israeli officials have expressed concern over the Houthis’ growing technological capabilities, a development attributed to Iran’s backing. With advanced drones and missiles, the Houthis have managed to transform their ideological hostility into practical actions, sustaining near-nightly attacks on Israel. These capabilities highlight their intent to position themselves as the vanguard of resistance against Israel, a claim furthered by their ability to wage a war of attrition at a relatively low economic cost.

The disparity in cost between the Houthis’ offensives and Israel’s defensive measures underscores the economic challenge. While the Houthis deploy drones and missiles for a few thousand dollars, Israeli interceptions cost tens of thousands, creating an unsustainable dynamic over time.

Military historian Danny Orbach notes the logistical difficulties of addressing the Houthi threat. Unlike Hezbollah or Hamas, which operate near Israel’s borders, the Houthis are entrenched in mountainous terrain far from Israel, surrounded by civilian populations, and with limited infrastructure. These factors complicate precision strikes and limit the effectiveness of traditional military responses.

Despite recent successes in weakening Hamas in Gaza and securing a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis remain undeterred. Analysts, including The Jerusalem Post’s Seth Frantzman, have labeled them the “last man standing” in Iran’s axis, emphasizing their continued capability to disrupt Israel’s security.

Israel’s recent strikes on Houthi infrastructure aim to curb their offensive capabilities, but the long-term challenge lies in countering their technological and ideological advancements. As the conflict continues, the Houthis’ resilience and Iran’s support could redefine the scope of Israel’s security strategy in the region.

This evolving dynamic illustrates the broader implications of Iran’s influence in the Middle East and the complex interplay between regional and global powers in shaping the trajectory of ongoing conflicts.

Senior Taliban leader confirms refuge for TTP militants, escalating cross-border tensions with Pakistan after deadly airstrikes in Afghanistan.

The Taliban’s acknowledgment of hosting Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants on Afghan soil marks a significant shift in the group’s public stance and escalates tensions with neighboring Pakistan. The admission came after reported Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Paktika province, which targeted TTP hideouts and allegedly killed both militants and dozens of civilians.

This development highlights the growing challenge of cross-border militancy in the region and underscores the complexity of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations under Taliban rule.

Taliban Information Minister Khairullah Khairkhwa’s remarks described the TTP as “guests” in Afghanistan, citing traditional Afghan values of hospitality. While the Taliban leadership had previously denied harboring foreign militants, this public acknowledgment signals a shift in rhetoric and reinforces suspicions about the group’s complicity in providing safe havens for anti-Pakistan militants.

Khairkhwa’s fiery statements also warned Pakistan against military actions on Afghan soil, invoking the historical failures of foreign powers in Afghanistan, including Britain, the Soviet Union, and the United States.

The TTP has intensified its insurgency in Pakistan since the Taliban regained power in Kabul in 2021. Designated as a global terrorist organization by the United Nations, the TTP has carried out numerous attacks in Pakistan, killing hundreds of civilians and security personnel.

Pakistan’s recent airstrikes in Paktika province, while unacknowledged officially, were reportedly aimed at dismantling TTP hideouts. However, allegations of civilian casualties have drawn condemnation from the Taliban and international organizations, further straining relations between the two countries.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has called the TTP’s presence in Afghanistan a “red line” for Pakistan, urging the Taliban government to curtail the group’s operations. While Sharif expressed readiness to engage in dialogue with Afghanistan, he emphasized that progress hinges on Taliban action against TTP militants.

The Taliban’s justification for sheltering the TTP echoes its past defense of hosting Osama bin Laden, citing traditional hospitality norms. This pattern of shielding transnational militants has long complicated Afghanistan’s relationships with neighboring and global powers.

The TTP, like the Taliban during their insurgency, has leveraged cross-border sanctuaries to sustain its operations, exploiting the porous Afghanistan-Pakistan border. This dynamic mirrors the challenges faced by the U.S. and its allies during their two-decade military campaign in Afghanistan.

The Taliban’s tacit support for the TTP undermines their pledge to combat transnational militant networks. It also raises questions about their commitment to preventing Afghanistan from becoming a launchpad for regional and global terrorism.

A recent U.S. terrorism report highlighted the resurgence of militant networks in Afghanistan, emphasizing the risks posed by the TTP and other groups operating from Afghan territory. This resurgence not only threatens regional stability but also undermines international confidence in the Taliban’s counterterrorism efforts.

The Taliban’s acknowledgment of harboring anti-Pakistan militants reflects a deepening crisis in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. While the Taliban invoke cultural traditions to justify their actions, the implications for regional security are severe.

As cross-border tensions escalate, the international community faces the challenge of addressing Afghanistan’s role as a sanctuary for militant groups while balancing humanitarian and geopolitical concerns. For Pakistan, the TTP’s continued presence in Afghanistan is not just a diplomatic concern but an existential threat that demands immediate and coordinated action.

As Beijing escalates military activities, Taipei seeks clarity on U.S. policy under Trump while bolstering defenses against mounting threats.

Taiwan finds itself at a critical juncture as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House. Amid Beijing’s increasing military aggression and gray zone tactics, Taipei faces uncertainty about how Trump’s administration will handle U.S.-Taiwan relations, a cornerstone of stability in the region.

Donald Trump’s rhetoric on Taiwan during his campaign offered mixed signals, leaving policymakers in Taipei cautiously optimistic but concerned. While Trump praised Taiwan’s economic prowess, he controversially suggested that the island “pay for defense” and emphasized prioritizing U.S. interests. His pledge to impose heavy tariffs on China if it “goes into Taiwan” reflects a transactional approach to U.S.-Taiwan relations.

Trump’s return comes as Taiwan grows accustomed to more explicit support under Joe Biden, who repeatedly affirmed the U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. Trump’s vague post-election remarks about his “good relationship” with Chinese President Xi Jinping add to Taipei’s unease.

In recent weeks, Taiwan has ramped up diplomatic efforts with U.S. officials and Trump’s transition team to secure continuity in relations. President Lai Ching-te’s outreach to Republican congressional leaders and stopovers in Hawaii and Guam signal proactive engagement to build bipartisan support for Taiwan in Washington.

On the home front, Taiwan is strengthening its defenses against Beijing’s escalating military pressure. The island’s defense budget is set to reach a record $19.74 billion in 2025, funding initiatives like real-combat drills and a civil defense committee to counter China’s gray zone tactics.

Beijing has intensified its military pressure campaign on Taiwan, conducting two blockade-style exercises in 2024 and deploying the largest number of naval and coast guard vessels near Taiwan in decades. Gray zone operations, such as sending oversized coast guard ships to intimidate Taiwan’s outlying Kinmen and Matsu islands, complicate Taipei’s defense strategy.

These tactics aim to exhaust Taiwan’s resources and test its response capabilities while avoiding direct conflict. China’s Foreign Ministry has reiterated its resolve to “safeguard sovereignty and territorial integrity,” signaling that Beijing’s pressure will persist regardless of Trump’s policies.

Taiwan’s future hinges on its ability to navigate the dual challenges of managing ties with the U.S. under Trump’s unpredictable leadership and countering Beijing’s aggression. While bipartisan support in Congress provides some reassurance, Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy could introduce uncertainties.

Taipei’s bolstered defense measures and diplomatic efforts reflect a pragmatic approach to mitigating risks. However, as China assesses Trump’s stance, its actions may escalate further, necessitating careful coordination between Taiwan and its international allies to preserve stability in the Indo-Pacific.

Taiwan stands at a pivotal moment as it balances rising threats from China with the uncertainties of U.S. policy under Trump. While proactive measures strengthen its defense and diplomatic ties, the island must remain vigilant and adaptive to maintain its security and sovereignty in an increasingly volatile region.

Moscow cautions Trump administration over possible resumption of nuclear tests, signaling heightened risks to global stability.

As arms control agreements between global powers erode, Russia has issued a stark warning to the United States about the potential resumption of nuclear testing under Donald Trump’s upcoming administration. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, Moscow’s lead on arms control, cautioned that such a move could usher in a perilous new chapter in nuclear weapons development, nearly eight decades after the first nuclear bomb test.

Resurgence of Nuclear Testing?

Ryabkov’s remarks reflect growing tensions between the U.S. and Russia, with both nations modernizing their nuclear arsenals amid the collapse of Cold War-era treaties. Trump’s previous stance on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) — which the U.S. has signed but not ratified — suggests a potential pivot toward renewed testing, a step that would mark a significant departure from global norms.

“The international situation is extremely difficult at the moment,” Ryabkov told Kommersant newspaper, emphasizing that U.S. policies are perceived as “extremely hostile.” Russia’s warning underscores its readiness to respond in kind, should the U.S. resume testing.

The resumption of nuclear testing by the U.S. or Russia could destabilize decades of arms control efforts. Such actions would not only intensify the arms race but could also embolden other nuclear powers like China to follow suit, further destabilizing global security.

With Russia, the U.S., and China already engaged in significant upgrades to their nuclear capabilities, renewed testing could exacerbate tensions and undermine fragile agreements aimed at preventing nuclear proliferation.

The Crumbling Arms Control Framework

The decline of Cold War-era treaties has left the global arms control framework in tatters:

The INF Treaty, which eliminated intermediate-range missiles, dissolved in 2019.

The New START Treaty, limiting strategic nuclear arsenals, faces an uncertain future as its 2026 expiration approaches.

Trump’s potential return to office could signal a further unraveling of these agreements, with a more unilateral approach to U.S. nuclear policy likely to provoke adversaries.

China’s rapid modernization of its nuclear arsenal complicates the global arms control landscape. While Beijing remains a far smaller nuclear power than the U.S. or Russia, its refusal to participate in multilateral arms control discussions adds another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile situation.

Ryabkov’s warning highlights the precarious state of global arms control as geopolitical tensions rise. A resumption of nuclear testing by the U.S. or Russia would represent a dangerous escalation, with implications far beyond bilateral relations.

As Trump’s administration considers its next steps, the world faces the prospect of a destabilized nuclear order, with heightened risks of proliferation, regional conflicts, and an accelerated arms race. The decisions made in Washington and Moscow in the coming months will determine whether the world moves closer to renewed nuclear brinkmanship or toward a renewed commitment to arms control.

IDF targets Houthi-controlled sites in Sanaa, Hodeidah, and other locations in its most extensive operation, with U.S. intelligence backing.

In its most expansive operation yet in Yemen, Israel’s Air Force carried out a series of precision airstrikes targeting Houthi-controlled infrastructure in Sanaa, Hodeidah, and surrounding areas. The strikes come amid rising tensions following multiple Houthi ballistic missile launches that recently targeted central Israel, intensifying the regional conflict.

The Operation: Scope and Impact

The operation involved 25 Israeli aircraft, including fighter jets, reconnaissance planes, and tankers. Key targets included:

Sanaa International Airport: Control towers, landing aids, and runways were destroyed to disrupt Iranian supply chains. Civilian aircraft used by Houthi leaders were also damaged.

Hodeidah Port: Strikes targeted oil facilities and critical infrastructure, likely to hinder the Houthis’ logistical capabilities.

Power Stations: The Haziz power station, critical to the Sanaa region, was severely damaged.

These strikes highlight Israel’s strategic intent to degrade the Houthis’ operational capacity and disrupt Iran’s influence in the region.

Israeli Leadership’s Message

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and top military officials observed the operation from the Air Force command center. Katz declared, “No Houthi leader will escape Israel’s reach,” emphasizing Israel’s resolve to counter threats. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi added, “Our long-range strike capabilities ensure precision and power against any threat to Israel’s citizens.”

Casualties and Global Repercussions

Houthi-affiliated media reported three deaths and 16 injuries from the strikes. Notably, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus was at Sanaa Airport during the attack. Ghebreyesus described the damage and confirmed injuries among his team.

While some criticized the strikes for affecting civilian infrastructure, Israeli officials defended the action as necessary. “If the Houthis don’t understand force, they’ll understand more force,” one senior official said, hinting at potential escalations.

U.S.-Israel Coordination

The operation underscores deepening U.S.-Israel military collaboration. Intelligence sharing played a pivotal role, with sources dubbing the strike a “Hanu-Christmas collaboration.” This coordination aligns with shared goals of curbing Iran’s influence and addressing the Houthi threat.

Context and Strategic Implications

The airstrikes follow a series of Houthi missile attacks on Israel, which caused damage in Tel Aviv and surrounding areas. The IDF’s decisive response demonstrates Israel’s capability to project power far beyond its borders, targeting Iranian-backed groups in the region.

Israel’s actions also send a message to Tehran: its proxy forces will face direct consequences. The strikes highlight Israel’s broader strategy of targeting Iranian supply lines and diminishing the operational capabilities of Tehran’s allies, including the Houthis.

Conclusion

Israel’s largest airstrike in Yemen marks a significant escalation in its campaign to counter Iran’s regional influence. The coordinated operation with U.S. intelligence underscores a united front against the growing threat posed by Houthi missile attacks and Iranian-backed forces.

As tensions rise, this operation signals Israel’s readiness to take decisive action while strengthening its strategic partnerships. The message is clear: any threat to Israel’s security will be met with unparalleled force.

Regional tensions and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea cause an $8 billion revenue loss for Egypt, compounding economic challenges.

Egypt’s economy faces mounting pressure as geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to weigh on one of its most critical revenue sources—the Suez Canal. Pro-Iranian Houthi militias have launched repeated attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea, deterring maritime traffic and prompting some shippers to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. This shift has caused Egypt to lose $8 billion in canal revenue over the past year, a substantial blow to its GDP.

The reduction in Suez Canal transits has had ripple effects across Egypt’s economy. Fitch Solutions recently revised Egypt’s GDP growth forecast for the 2024/2025 fiscal year down to 3.7%, citing disruptions to canal traffic and subdued economic performance in the previous fiscal year. While Fitch anticipates a rebound in non-oil exports and investments, the projected recovery remains slower than initially expected.

Similarly, the IMF’s latest review of Egypt’s Extended Fund Facility program highlights the canal revenue drop as a significant obstacle to economic stabilization. Regional instability, compounded by the rising number of refugees, has strained public services and amplified fiscal pressures, particularly in health and education.

Amid these challenges, Egypt is turning to privatization as a potential remedy for its economic stagnation. Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly recently announced plans to list three to four military-owned companies, including Wataniya and Safi, on the stock exchange. Wataniya operates a network of gas stations, while Safi focuses on bottled water, olive oil, and related products.

This privatization initiative is part of a broader economic reform plan tied to Egypt’s agreement with the IMF. By reducing military dominance in the economy and encouraging private sector growth, the government hopes to unlock economic potential, create jobs, and stabilize macroeconomic conditions.

Egypt has seen some relief on the inflation front, with urban consumer price inflation falling to 25.5% in November, down from a peak of 38% in September 2023. However, inflation remains elevated, driven by external shocks such as the Russia-Ukraine war and domestic factors, including the Suez Canal revenue decline.

The Central Bank of Egypt has implemented measures to stabilize the exchange rate and tighten monetary policy to curb inflation. While these reforms have slowed inflationary pressures, continued vigilance is necessary to sustain progress.

The Suez Canal is not only an economic lifeline but also a geopolitical asset. The ongoing instability in the Red Sea underscores the vulnerability of this critical waterway to regional conflicts. Egypt’s ability to safeguard the canal and restore confidence in its security will be pivotal in reversing the economic damage caused by declining transits.

Egypt’s economic recovery remains fragile, with falling Suez Canal revenues adding to a litany of challenges, including inflation and fiscal pressures. While privatization and economic reforms offer hope, the success of these initiatives will depend on Egypt’s ability to navigate geopolitical uncertainties and implement sustainable policies.

The canal’s significance extends beyond Egypt’s borders, making regional stability a priority not just for Cairo but for the global economy as well. As Egypt works to stabilize its finances, its resilience in the face of these challenges will determine its ability to reclaim economic momentum.