Russia’s latest rhetoric, emphasizing the need to prepare for a potential conflict with NATO while intensifying its war in Ukraine, signals a significant escalation in its military and geopolitical posture. The remarks from Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, made during a Defense Ministry meeting with President Vladimir Putin, reveal a deliberate shift toward a more confrontational stance against the West. Combined with Putin’s accusations of NATO provocation and his warnings about a “red line,” the messaging is clear: Moscow is gearing up for a prolonged struggle not only in Ukraine but potentially on a broader front against the Western alliance.

Belousov’s comments underscore Russia’s growing militarization in response to what it perceives as NATO’s encroachment. The reference to NATO’s July summit and Western doctrinal documents indicates that Moscow interprets the alliance’s actions — including increased troop deployments and expanded military budgets — as direct threats to Russian security. This interpretation aligns with Putin’s longstanding narrative that NATO’s presence near Russian borders and support for Ukraine are forms of aggression designed to destabilize Russia.

The minister’s claim that Russia must prepare for a military conflict with NATO within the next decade raises the stakes considerably. It reflects not just Moscow’s strategic planning but also its perception of the inevitability of further confrontation with the West. Belousov’s mention of NATO troop levels and doctrinal changes serves to reinforce Moscow’s framing of the alliance as a hostile force, despite NATO’s insistence that its actions are defensive in nature.

Domestically, these warnings serve several purposes. By portraying NATO as an existential threat, the Kremlin justifies its ongoing military buildup and extraordinary recruitment efforts. Belousov’s announcement that Russia has recruited over 427,000 troops this year is an attempt to project strength and readiness, countering perceptions of Russian military setbacks in Ukraine. However, such figures also underscore the extent to which the Kremlin is mobilizing its population for what it anticipates to be a long and arduous conflict.

In Ukraine, Belousov’s assertion that Russia aims to fully conquer Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Donetsk regions by next year signals Moscow’s continued commitment to its territorial ambitions. This rhetoric, combined with claims of “rapid advances” on all fronts, contrasts sharply with battlefield realities reported by independent analysts, who highlight ongoing resistance and resilience from Ukrainian forces. These statements likely serve both to bolster domestic support for the war and to pressure Ukraine’s allies by suggesting Russian momentum.

On the international stage, Putin’s comments blaming NATO and the U.S. for escalating tensions aim to shift responsibility for the conflict. His accusations that NATO countries are “scaring people with a mythical Russian threat” and increasing their military presence in Europe are designed to reinforce his narrative of Western provocation. While there is no evidence to support claims of NATO instructors operating in Ukraine, such statements serve Moscow’s broader effort to depict itself as a victim of Western hostility, justifying its aggressive policies.

Simultaneously, Putin’s rhetoric about “red lines” indicates that Russia views the current Western support for Ukraine as a significant escalation. By framing NATO’s actions as nearing an intolerable threshold, Putin is signaling a willingness to escalate further if the West does not scale back its involvement. However, this approach risks deepening the very cycle of escalation it claims to oppose, particularly as NATO countries reaffirm their support for Kyiv.

Contrasting with Moscow’s hardline stance, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s recent remarks emphasize a desire to end the conflict through diplomacy. Trump’s call for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to “be prepared to make a deal” reflects a pragmatic but controversial perspective, as it suggests a potential shift in U.S. policy toward pressuring Ukraine to negotiate. While this aligns with Trump’s broader skepticism of prolonged foreign entanglements, it risks alienating key U.S. allies in Europe who see a negotiated settlement under current conditions as capitulation to Russian aggression.

The broader implications of Russia’s warnings about NATO extend beyond the immediate conflict in Ukraine. They reflect a deliberate effort by Moscow to frame the current war as part of a larger ideological and geopolitical struggle against Western dominance. For NATO, this poses a dual challenge: maintaining unity in support of Ukraine while managing the risk of further escalation with Russia. NATO’s recent measures, including bolstering troop levels and enhancing its eastern flank, indicate that the alliance is taking Moscow’s threats seriously. However, these actions also feed into Russia’s narrative, potentially exacerbating the very tensions they aim to deter.

In conclusion, Russia’s intensified rhetoric and preparations for a potential conflict with NATO highlight the deepening polarization between Moscow and the West. For Ukraine, the stakes remain existential, as Moscow shows no sign of easing its territorial ambitions. For NATO, the challenge lies in balancing deterrence with the risk of escalation, as Russia’s narrative increasingly frames the alliance as a direct adversary. As the conflict continues, the global implications of Russia’s militarized posture and the West’s response will shape the geopolitical landscape for years to come.

The recent Chinese spy scandal involving Yang Tengbo, or “Chris Yang,” has revealed significant vulnerabilities within the British establishment, exposing systemic flaws in security protocols and raising concerns about the risks of foreign influence. Yang’s connections to high-profile figures, including Prince Andrew and former prime ministers, highlight how informal networks and personal relationships can be exploited to advance geopolitical agendas.

The scandal points to long-standing weaknesses in how individuals with access to powerful institutions are vetted. Yang operated in elite circles for nearly two decades, leveraging his ties to figures like Prince Andrew and senior politicians to establish credibility and widen his influence. His ability to move through such high-level networks without detection underscores the lack of a proactive, consistent security framework for monitoring foreign actors interacting with Britain’s political and royal institutions.

The concept of “elite capture” is central to understanding the implications of this case. Yang’s association with Prince Andrew served multiple purposes, from bolstering his legitimacy to providing Beijing with a potential gateway to influential decision-makers. This fits into the broader strategy of the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front Works Department, which focuses on cultivating relationships with individuals who can amplify Beijing’s influence abroad. By gaining the trust of prominent figures, individuals like Yang are positioned to create informal power bases that align with Beijing’s interests.

Politically, the scandal has sparked sharp criticism from both sides of the aisle. Conservatives have called out the naivety of past governments during the so-called “golden era” of U.K.-China relations, when economic ties were prioritized over national security concerns. Meanwhile, Labour’s current government faces challenges as it seeks to reset relations with China while reassuring the public of its commitment to safeguarding British interests. The timing is particularly sensitive as the government’s “China Audit” is nearing completion, and decisions about designating China as a threat under the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme (FIRS) are still pending.

The involvement of Prince Andrew adds another layer of complexity. Already disgraced over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, Andrew’s role in this scandal further tarnishes the royal family’s reputation and highlights vulnerabilities in the oversight of advisers and associates linked to the monarchy. Public trust in the institution is likely to be further eroded, especially as questions arise about the lack of safeguards to prevent such relationships from compromising broader national security.

Diplomatically, the case poses challenges for both the U.K. and China. While Beijing will likely view the backlash unfavorably, it is unlikely to escalate tensions unless the issue snowballs further. For Britain, the scandal underscores the difficulty of balancing economic priorities with the need for national security, especially at a time when the Labour government is attempting to foster closer trade ties with China.

To address the fallout, Britain must strengthen its systems for monitoring foreign influence. The implementation of FIRS, with provisions to scrutinize Chinese activities more closely, should be expedited. Additionally, royal security protocols must be reviewed to ensure that individuals no longer engaged in formal duties, such as Prince Andrew, do not become points of vulnerability.

The Yang Tengbo affair is a wake-up call for the U.K. establishment, highlighting the risks posed by foreign influence operations that exploit informal networks. Moving forward, Britain will need to address the systemic flaws exposed by this scandal while carefully navigating its relationship with China to balance security and economic interests. The way this issue is resolved will shape public confidence in the government’s ability to protect national security in an increasingly competitive global landscape.

Ahmed al-Sharaa’s ascent signals a generational shift, but will it drive transformation or perpetuate conflict?

Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has emerged as Syria’s new leader, symbolizing a generational shift in Middle Eastern politics. Born in 1982, he represents a younger wave of leadership alongside figures like Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman and Qatar’s Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani. This younger cohort offers a stark contrast to aging Cold War-era leaders such as Mahmoud Abbas and Nabih Berri, whose policies and worldviews are deeply rooted in the past.

Al-Sharaa’s rise coincides with a region grappling with the legacies of decades-long conflicts and a decline in ideological movements such as Arab nationalism and political Islam. While many Islamist movements have ossified or lost influence, al-Sharaa represents a new iteration of political Islam. His leadership stands out as a potential turning point for Syria and possibly the broader Middle East.

A Shifting Regional Landscape

The Middle East is at a crossroads. Iran’s influence, once bolstered by alliances with Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas, appears to be waning. Tehran’s axis of resistance is crumbling under the weight of economic sanctions, political mismanagement, and military defeats. Syria, a key Iranian ally, has already been pulled in multiple directions by actors like Turkey, Qatar, and Russia, each vying for a piece of influence in Damascus.

Jordan, in particular, views al-Sharaa’s leadership with concern, fearing that the Islamist resurgence he represents could fuel unrest within its borders. During the Arab Spring, monarchies like Jordan and Saudi Arabia managed to weather the storm of uprisings that toppled leaders in Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia. But with a new generation of leaders like al-Sharaa rising to power, the region’s fragile status quo may be tested again.

At the same time, regional powerhouses like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have taken firm stances against Islamist movements, prioritizing stability and modernization over ideological governance. This creates a dichotomy between the young leaders seeking to modernize their nations and those, like al-Sharaa, who may still draw on ideological roots to shape their policies.

Challenges and Opportunities Ahead

Al-Sharaa now faces a critical choice: Will he align with the emerging trend of modernization and diplomacy seen in leaders like Mohammed bin Salman, or will he perpetuate Syria’s role as a battleground for ideological and proxy wars? The region’s history shows how leadership decisions can have sweeping consequences. Leaders like Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh have chosen paths of conflict and ideological fervor, often to the detriment of their people.

In contrast, al-Sharaa has an opportunity to distance himself from the war-driven policies of his predecessors and regional allies like Iran and Turkey. He could chart a new course for Syria by prioritizing economic recovery, regional cooperation, and the cessation of hostilities. Such a move would position him as a transformative leader in a region hungry for stability and progress.

However, history suggests caution. Young leaders often bring unpredictability, and al-Sharaa’s past association with militant factions raises questions about his commitment to peace. While his leadership represents a generational shift, the direction he chooses to take could either stabilize Syria or further entrench the region in conflict.

As the Middle East transitions into a new era of leadership, the choices made by al-Sharaa, Mohammed bin Salman, and others will define the region’s trajectory. Will they usher in an age of cooperation and modernization, or will they succumb to the allure of ideological adventures and rivalries? For now, the world watches as Syria’s new leader stands at this pivotal crossroads.

Rare earths, Treasury holdings, and the high-stakes game of economic retaliation.

Donald Trump’s proposed steep tariffs on Chinese goods could ignite a devastating trade war with far-reaching consequences. While Trump’s rhetoric suggests a one-sided advantage for the United States, Yale economist Stephen Roach warns that China holds significant leverage in this high-stakes economic battle.

Rare Earths: China’s Strategic Edge

China dominates the global supply of rare earth metals, critical for manufacturing advanced technologies like semiconductors, solar panels, and military equipment. In response to the U.S.’s semiconductor export ban, Beijing recently tightened restrictions on critical minerals such as graphite, underscoring its ability to disrupt American industries. Rare earth supply constraints could deal a heavy blow to the U.S., which relies on these materials for everything from consumer electronics to defense systems.

Roach cautions that U.S. policymakers often underestimate China’s ability to retaliate effectively. “It’s a reminder that retaliation is the high-octane fuel of conflict escalation,” he wrote. The U.S.’s dependence on these materials means that China’s control over rare earths is not just an economic weapon but also a geopolitical one.

Treasury Holdings: The Nuclear Option

China’s most potent financial weapon may be its massive holdings of U.S. Treasury debt. With mainland China and Hong Kong collectively owning approximately $1 trillion in these securities, Beijing has a unique tool to destabilize the U.S. economy. Roach outlines two possible scenarios:

1. A Buyer’s Strike: Beijing could refuse to purchase additional Treasury bonds during U.S. auctions, lowering demand and forcing higher yields. This would increase the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government, inflating deficits and straining an already debt-laden economy.
2. Treasury Dumping: A more extreme move would involve China offloading its Treasury holdings en masse. This would send shockwaves through global bond markets, spike U.S. borrowing costs, and create broader financial instability.

Both actions would escalate the trade war to new heights, with severe economic consequences for the U.S. and collateral damage to global markets. While this option may seem self-destructive for China, Roach warns against dismissing the possibility of a “trapped adversary” using such measures as a last resort.

A Two-Way Dependency

Roach criticizes the Trump administration’s “America First” policies for ignoring the mutual dependency between the two nations. The U.S. relies heavily on China for consumer goods and financing its deficit-prone economy. At the same time, China benefits from access to U.S. markets and technology.

However, recent actions suggest that China is willing to weaponize its economic advantages if provoked. As demonstrated by its response to Washington’s semiconductor ban, Beijing is prepared to escalate conflicts in ways that challenge the assumption of a one-sided dependency.

Conclusion

Trump’s tariff plans may backfire if they spark a broader trade war. China’s rare earth dominance and its status as one of the largest holders of U.S. debt give Beijing powerful tools to retaliate. A Treasury dump or rare earth embargo could create a cascading effect of financial instability, damaging not just the U.S. but the global economy.

Roach’s analysis underscores the importance of understanding the interdependence between the U.S. and China. Escalating tensions without considering the broader ramifications risks creating a mutually destructive conflict, with neither side emerging unscathed. As Roach aptly puts it, “Retaliation is the high-octane fuel of conflict escalation,” and in this case, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Can Turkey’s diplomatic efforts hold against regional complexities and shifting alliances in the Horn of Africa?

The Turkish-brokered Ethiopian-Somalian joint declaration has generated cautious optimism, but its long-term viability remains precarious. This agreement, facilitated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is designed to resolve tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, particularly over Ethiopian troops in Somalia, Somaliland’s contested status, and regional alignments. However, three pivotal factors will determine its success: Somalia’s internal pressures, Ethiopia’s relationship with Somaliland’s new leadership, and the possibility of U.S. recognition of Somaliland under Trump.

Ethiopian Troops in Somalia: A Lingering Controversy

The future of Ethiopian troops in Somalia remains a critical point of contention. Although the joint declaration implied a willingness to negotiate Ethiopia’s military presence, Somalia’s internal divisions could derail this arrangement. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) faces pressure from his hardline domestic base to demand Ethiopian troop withdrawal, a move that could undermine the agreement. If Ethiopia is forced to withdraw, Addis Ababa may perceive this as a betrayal of the declaration’s call to leave contentious issues behind, halting further negotiations.

Somaliland’s New Leadership: A Shift in Dynamics

The ascension of Somaliland’s new president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, introduces uncertainty into Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland, which had previously promised mutual recognition and military-commercial access. Reports suggest Abdullahi may not share the cooperative stance of his predecessor, potentially destabilizing the Ethiopia-Somaliland arrangement. If this skepticism proves true, Ethiopia may be forced to recalibrate its strategy, possibly favoring a stronger alignment with Somalia under the new declaration.

U.S. Recognition of Somaliland: A Game-Changer?

The potential recognition of Somaliland by a Trump-led U.S. administration could drastically alter the regional dynamics. Such recognition would validate Somaliland’s bid for independence, likely offering the territory more favorable terms than Ethiopia’s MoU ever could. This shift could either draw Ethiopia closer to Somalia’s federal government under the joint declaration or further complicate the region’s geopolitical landscape. Trump’s decision, expected during his “Trump 2.0” presidency, looms as a significant wildcard.

A Concession, Not a Resolution

While the joint declaration aims to repair relations and emphasize mutual sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, it appears to be more of a tactical concession from Somalia than a robust policy shift. Ethiopia has not abandoned its MoU with Somaliland, as some had speculated, leaving its commitments ambiguous. Somalia’s decision to proceed with negotiations despite this ambiguity signals a willingness to de-escalate tensions but does not guarantee long-term stability.

Conclusion

The Turkish-brokered declaration represents a fragile diplomatic victory, but it is far from secure. Somalia’s internal divisions, Somaliland’s changing leadership, and the uncertain role of a Trump 2.0 administration could all unravel this agreement before it bears fruit. For now, the declaration serves as a temporary pause in escalating tensions, with its ultimate success dependent on the ability of all parties to navigate these shifting dynamics. Patience and prudence will be essential as the Horn of Africa continues to grapple with its deeply entrenched challenges.

Southern Africa’s $45M Military Depot: A Strategic Move Amid Rising Regional Challenges

The Southern African Development Community’s (SADC) decision to establish a $45 million military logistics hub in Botswana represents a pivotal step toward addressing the region’s growing instability. Situated in Rasesa, near Gaborone, the 19-hectare facility aims to mitigate deployment delays witnessed during the 2021 insurgency in northern Mozambique. However, while this move bolsters tactical readiness, it also underscores deeper challenges in maintaining regional peace and security.

The creation of the SADC Standby Force Regional Logistics Depot reflects an acknowledgment of the pressing need for rapid, organized responses to conflict zones. From the insurgency in Mozambique to unrest in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), southern Africa faces a range of security threats driven by political instability, poverty, and economic disparities. The depot will store critical military equipment and enable swift troop deployment, marking a significant improvement in the bloc’s collective defense capabilities.

Botswana’s President Duma Boko emphasized the humanitarian imperative behind the project, noting that the SADC often intervenes in strife-ridden areas to provide relief and restore order. The facility, therefore, aligns with the region’s broader goals of ensuring safety and stability.

Despite its strategic importance, the project faces financial hurdles, with only $15 million of the required $45 million secured so far. SADC leaders, including Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, have appealed for international support to bridge the funding gap. Without adequate resources, the hub’s completion and operational readiness could face delays, potentially hampering the region’s ability to respond to emerging crises effectively.

Furthermore, some critics, including Zimbabwean political analyst Effie Dlela Ncube, argue that while the depot is crucial, military solutions alone cannot address the root causes of regional instability. Poverty, corruption, ethnic discrimination, and governance issues often underlie conflicts, and tackling these systemic issues remains vital for lasting peace.

Enhanced Military Coordination: Once operational, the depot will significantly improve the SADC’s logistical capacity, ensuring quicker and more efficient interventions in conflict zones like Mozambique and the DRC.

Strengthened Regional Collaboration: By pooling resources and establishing centralized facilities, the SADC demonstrates its commitment to collective security, potentially fostering greater trust among member states.

Long-Term Development Needs: While the depot is a tactical asset, its success will ultimately depend on parallel efforts to address socioeconomic inequalities and governance challenges that fuel unrest.

The SADC’s military depot project in Botswana is a commendable effort to bolster regional security, but its success hinges on securing funding and addressing the underlying causes of instability. As southern Africa grapples with rising insecurity, this initiative marks an important step forward, albeit one that must be complemented by broader, systemic reforms to achieve sustainable peace.

The apparent disbandment and retreat of the Fatemiyoun Brigade (Afghan Shiite fighters) and Zainebiyoun Brigade (Pakistani Shiite fighters) mark a significant blow to Iran’s regional proxy strategy in Syria. These groups were once pillars of Iran’s military and ideological campaign to safeguard Bashar al-Assad’s regime and project Iranian influence across the Middle East. Their sudden collapse amid anti-Assad rebel offensives raises critical questions about Iran’s capacity to maintain its regional presence and advance its “Axis of Resistance.”

Key Factors Behind the Retreat

1. Loss of Strategic Ground: The rapid advances by anti-Assad rebels left little room for coordinated resistance. Long-standing bases of these militias were abandoned, signaling an unexpected breakdown in operational cohesion.
2. Declining Resources: Years of international sanctions and military overextension have strained Iran’s financial and logistical ability to sustain its proxies. This is compounded by the shifting priorities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which faces competing pressures from regional conflicts and domestic unrest.
3. Weak Morale and Overreliance on Recruits: The Fatemiyoun and Zainebiyoun, composed of refugees and economically vulnerable recruits, often lacked the ideological fervor of groups like Hezbollah. Reports of their usage as “cannon fodder” may have further eroded morale, hastening their collapse.
4. Shifts in the Regional Balance: The changing geopolitical landscape, including closer ties between Gulf states and Israel, along with increased Western scrutiny of Iran’s activities, has limited Tehran’s freedom to maneuver in Syria.

Strategic Consequences for Iran

1. Erosion of the “Axis of Resistance”: The weakening of Iranian proxies in Syria undermines Tehran’s ability to sustain its influence in the Levant. With Hezbollah facing its own challenges in Lebanon and Hamas reeling from Israeli operations in Gaza, Iran’s regional network appears increasingly fragmented.
2. Reallocation of Resources: Iran may now focus on rebuilding these groups elsewhere, potentially in Iraq or Lebanon, where it retains greater control. However, the loss of Syria as a key staging ground complicates this effort.
3. Increased Vulnerability to Rival Powers: The retreat of Iranian forces creates an opportunity for other regional actors, including Turkey, Israel, and Gulf states, to expand their influence in Syria. It also allows the United States to solidify its military and intelligence presence in northeastern Syria, further isolating Iran.
4. Domestic and Regional Repercussions: The loss of high-profile militias like the Fatemiyoun and Zainebiyoun could spark dissent among Iran’s domestic supporters, who question the effectiveness of its costly foreign interventions. Additionally, the return of disbanded fighters to Afghanistan and Pakistan risks destabilizing these regions and fueling anti-Iranian sentiments.

Broader Geopolitical Implications

• Israel’s Strategic Advantage: The weakening of Iranian forces in Syria enhances Israel’s ability to conduct precision strikes and maintain its deterrence strategy. Without robust proxy forces in Syria, Iran faces greater difficulty in using the country as a launchpad for attacks on Israel.
• Uncertain Future for Syrian Rebels: While the collapse of Iranian proxies is a victory for rebel factions, it also creates a power vacuum that could lead to infighting among various opposition groups or further Turkish incursions in the region.
• Regional Realignments: With Iran’s influence waning, Syria may pivot towards rebuilding alliances with Sunni Arab states or Turkey. This shift could fundamentally alter the dynamics of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Conclusion

Iran’s proxies in Syria were critical to its vision of a united “Axis of Resistance.” Their retreat signifies not only a tactical failure but also a strategic setback for Tehran’s regional ambitions. However, Iran is unlikely to abandon its goals entirely and may adapt by redeploying these forces or reshaping its strategy. For now, the disarray among these militias creates an opportunity for regional rivals, particularly Israel, to capitalize on Iran’s vulnerabilities and reshape the balance of power in the Middle East.

Amman on Edge as Syrian Power Vacuum and Iranian Influence Threaten Kingdom’s Stability

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves through neighboring Jordan, where leaders are grappling with fears of being the next domino in the region’s instability. Already housing 1.3 million Syrian refugees, Jordan’s population—60% of whom are Palestinian—faces rising political and economic pressures, compounded by suspicions of spies among the refugee communities and growing Iranian ambitions.

Relations between Amman and Damascus have long been fraught. Assad’s regime not only withheld critical resources like water and food from Jordan but also taunted the kingdom with veiled threats of facilitating an Iranian takeover. This rhetoric is now backed by action, as Iranian missiles and drones targeting Israel recently landed in Jordanian territory, keeping Jordanian security forces on high alert.

To counter these threats, Jordan has fortified its borders, closing crossings like the Jaber checkpoint near Daraa, and ramping up surveillance on Syrian drug and arms smuggling operations. Maher al-Assad, the brother of the ousted Syrian president, has been implicated in Captagon smuggling networks that exploit Jordan’s porous borders, further destabilizing the kingdom.

Concerns are also mounting over Jordan’s internal dynamics. The Islamic movement, with 16 representatives in parliament, poses a potential challenge, particularly if Syria’s new, yet-undefined government aligns with Jordanian Islamist factions. Turkey’s involvement in Syria, alongside its targeting of Kurdish rebels, adds another layer of complexity to Jordan’s precarious position.

Amid this turmoil, the Jordanian monarchy has found little solace in external alliances. Relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remain tense, and although U.S. intelligence agencies closely monitor the kingdom’s stability, direct support has been limited. Meanwhile, Iran, sidelined by Syria’s new regime, is likely to double down on its efforts to gain influence in Jordan, with ripple effects threatening the broader Middle East.

As Jordan stands at a crossroads, its leaders are acutely aware that the kingdom’s stability is not guaranteed. The unfolding dynamics in Syria and persistent Iranian interference demand constant vigilance to prevent Jordan from becoming the next flashpoint in the region’s ongoing power struggles.