Strategic Forecast: Israel’s Ground Operation in Syria Marks a New Phase — What It Signals and What May Follow.

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Israel’s latest confirmed ground operation in southern Syria signals a tactical and strategic escalation that experts say could reshape the current regional balance — or at the very least, spark new responses from Iran-backed militias and proxy groups across the region.

According to Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), the operation was in direct response to gunfire from “terrorists” in southern Syria. In turn, IDF troops returned fire and launched airstrikes that reportedly targeted and destroyed hostile infrastructure near Daraa and Kuwaya. Syrian media claimed four people were killed and that Israeli forces briefly advanced on the ground before encountering resistance.

While Israel has carried out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria over the past decade, its confirmation of ground operations inside Syrian territory is rare — and notable.

“This is no longer shadow war,” said a former EU military attaché in Lebanon who spoke to WARYATV on condition of anonymity. “We are now seeing calibrated but open military incursions with the message: Israel is willing to raise the stakes.”

Why Now? A Multi-Front Reality

According to Israeli security sources and confirmed by former U.S. CENTCOM analysts, the decision to go in on the ground reflects growing Israeli concerns about an expanded threat network stretching from Lebanon to Syria to Iraq. Hezbollah’s deeper entrenchment in southern Syria, combined with Iran’s efforts to transfer precision missile technology through the region, has heightened Israeli fears of a coordinated multi-front war.

“From an intelligence perspective, it’s about timing,” said Michael R., a retired CIA Middle East analyst. “Israel likely detected weapons or personnel movements that crossed their red lines, prompting not just airstrikes, but a need to put boots on the ground to verify, seize intel, or destroy targets directly.”

Former Israeli intelligence officer Yossi K. added that while the operation was short, it was designed to demonstrate capability: “It’s as much about deterrence as it is about degradation. If you can show you’re willing to physically cross the border, you signal to Iran and Syria that the status quo is no longer tolerable.”

Implications for Syria and Iran

Damascus has condemned the operation but is unlikely to respond directly. Instead, analysts believe Iran may task its allied militias — particularly those in southern Syria and the Iraqi border area — with retaliatory actions. Already, some pro-Iranian media outlets have called the operation an act of war.

A former EU intelligence officer based in Brussels told WARYATV, “What we’re watching is not a sudden change, but an escalation of an already intensifying campaign. Israel is shifting its policy from indirect containment to limited offensive disruption.”

He added: “The Iranians will test this. They may not respond immediately, but they rarely allow direct Israeli incursions to pass without attempting a message of their own.”

Red Sea and Gaza Ties

Several Western analysts noted that the timing also aligns with increasing Israeli military action in the Red Sea corridor and against Houthi-linked targets, amid growing fears of a broader Axis of Resistance alignment. There is also speculation that the Syria operation could help relieve pressure from the Gaza front — drawing enemy resources and attention elsewhere.

“It’s classic diversion through escalation,” one European security source said. “If the north heats up, some actors aligned with Hamas could be redirected to a northern theater.”

What Comes Next?

While the IDF has not confirmed further ground missions, all signs suggest this was not a one-off.

“What we are seeing is the start of a new phase: Israel is laying the groundwork for a more kinetic approach in Syria, possibly even clearing corridors for deeper strikes or emergency deterrent missions in the event of northern escalation,” said an Israeli defense strategist now advising a think tank in London.

WARYATV’s sources also noted that civilian evacuations in southern Syria signal anticipation of further activity.

Strategic Forecast

• Israel is moving into a posture of “active forward deterrence” beyond its borders.
• Iran is unlikely to respond directly, but will lean on militias and proxy cells.
• Syria will likely remain passive but coordinate with Iran on information-sharing.
• Hezbollah and the IRGC may test Israeli lines elsewhere — especially in Golan, the Lebanon border, or via Iraqi militias.
• Expect increased Israeli air and limited ground operations in Syria through spring 2025.

This shift, while still short of full-scale war, places the region on a tighter wire.

Exclusive for waryatv.com.

African Air Chiefs Converge in Zambia to Forge a Unified Strategy for Humanitarian and Disaster Relief Operations.

Air force commanders from across Africa convened at the African Air Chiefs Symposium in Lusaka, Zambia. This event, which drew participation from over 240 representatives from 38 nations, highlighted the critical, though often understated, role of air forces in disaster response alongside their traditional military functions.

The symposium, held from February 17-21, served as a platform for discussing how African air forces can leverage their capabilities beyond conventional military roles to address the continent’s pressing humanitarian needs. Zambia Air Force Commander Lt. Gen. Oscar Nyoni emphasized the unpredictability of natural disasters and the indispensable role of air forces in providing immediate relief and support to affected populations.

The event also marked a significant milestone for the Association of African Air Forces (AAAF), which has seen remarkable growth since its inception in 2015. From a modest beginning with four member countries, the association now boasts 29 nations, demonstrating a robust continental effort to tackle Africa’s challenges collectively. U.S. Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa Commander Gen. James Hecker noted this expansion as a testament to Africa’s enhanced capability to manage its affairs collaboratively.

Focus on Readiness and Coordination

A key feature of the symposium was a tabletop exercise aimed at honing coordination and readiness for humanitarian and disaster response missions. This exercise was critical in addressing logistical challenges such as fuel costs, supply arrangements, and diplomatic clearances essential for effective crisis management. Gen. Hecker highlighted the importance of preemptive planning to ensure swift and efficient responses when disasters strike.

Looking ahead, the association plans to conduct a live-flight lifeline exercise in Kenya in November of 2026, aiming to further enhance the operational coordination, response times, and logistical effectiveness of disaster relief efforts. This forthcoming exercise underscores the ongoing commitment of African air forces to improving their readiness and capabilities in dealing with emergencies.

The symposium concluded with a symbolic passing of the AAAF flag to Air Marshal Hassan Bala Abubakar of Nigeria, the next chairman of the association. His remarks reinforced the collective resolve of African nations to find homegrown solutions to their challenges, emphasizing the power of unity and collaboration across the continent.

The successful hosting of the symposium in Zambia was a proud moment for the nation and a step forward in fostering deeper cooperation among African Air Forces. The enthusiasm and active participation of air chiefs from various regions highlighted a shared commitment to enhancing Africa’s capacity to respond to both security threats and humanitarian emergencies effectively. This event not only strengthened military collaborations but also showcased the pivotal role of African air forces in advancing security and prosperity across the continent.