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Israel’s Strategic Shift: From Iranian Axis to Sunni Jihad Threat

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The fall of Damascus has brought a seismic shift to the Middle East, dismantling Iran’s carefully cultivated axis of influence while introducing a new and potentially dangerous reality for Israel and its allies. Decades of Iranian investments in Syria and Hezbollah have evaporated, leaving Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei embittered as the regime’s proxies crumble. However, the collapse of Assad’s regime and the emergence of a Sunni jihadist-led government in Syria present fresh challenges for the region, especially for Israel.

For years, Iran’s proxy network allowed it to project power across the region, with Hezbollah and the Assad regime serving as critical components. This network provided a direct land corridor from Iran to the Mediterranean, enabling Tehran to arm Hezbollah and threaten Israel’s northern border. But with Assad’s government ousted and Hezbollah severely weakened, that strategic corridor is gone. Iranian ambitions have suffered a devastating blow.

Yet, while the Iranian threat has diminished, a new danger looms: Sunni jihadist groups filling the power vacuum in Syria. These groups, currently vying for international legitimacy, could eventually set their sights on Israel. Israeli intelligence predicts that within a few years, the new Syrian leadership may frame the return of the Golan Heights as a sacred Islamic duty, reigniting territorial disputes under a jihadist banner.

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For now, Israel celebrates the collapse of Assad’s regime, which had long symbolized tyranny and brutality. The liberation of places like Saydnaya prison, where unspeakable atrocities occurred, highlights the scale of the regime’s crimes. Videos of the horrors have surfaced, showing gallows, acid-dissolved bodies, and prisoners forgotten in underground cells. This marks a historic moment of freedom for Syrians, but it also exposes the fragility of the new order.

The West’s inaction during Syria’s civil war, particularly after President Obama’s failure to enforce a “red line” on chemical weapons use, set the stage for this prolonged conflict. The war’s butterfly effect reshaped global politics, contributing to the refugee crisis in Europe, Brexit, and even Donald Trump’s rise to power. Yet, the same Western indifference that abandoned Syrians also allowed Russia and Iran to dominate the conflict, prolonging the suffering.

Now, Israel faces a complex new reality. The shift from Shiite to Sunni jihadism reshapes the regional threat landscape. While Iran’s influence has waned, Turkey’s role has grown. Turkish-backed groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) are cooperating with Ankara to consolidate control in Syria, including targeting the Kurds—historic allies of both Israel and the United States.

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The Kurdish question adds another layer of complexity. As Turkey seeks to dismantle Kurdish self-rule, the U.S. has positioned itself as a defender of Kurdish autonomy, with approximately 1,000 American troops stationed in Syria. This has created tensions within NATO, as U.S. and Turkish interests diverge dramatically. Israel, meanwhile, has used its influence in Washington to advocate for Kurdish interests, viewing the Kurds as a counterweight to hostile forces in Syria and Iraq.

The fall of Damascus signals both opportunity and peril. While Iran’s regional ambitions have been dealt a severe blow, the emergence of Sunni jihadist forces and Turkey’s growing influence present new challenges. The Golan Heights, a critical buffer for Israel, could become a flashpoint once again as Syria’s new leaders consolidate power.

As Israel recalibrates its strategy, it must remain vigilant, preparing for the inevitable rise of a new adversary. The Middle East is entering uncharted territory, and the path forward will test Israel’s resilience and adaptability in the face of shifting threats.

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ASSESSMENTS

Gunfire in the Gulf: Bulk Carrier Ambushed off Yemen’s Coast

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High seas alert as armed boats pursue merchant ship near Aden, reigniting piracy fears and exposing regional maritime chaos.

A merchant bulk carrier is chased by armed boats near Yemen in a dramatic 2-hour incident, reigniting fears of piracy and Houthi insurgency in the Gulf of Aden.

A quiet shipping lane turned into a maritime standoff Tuesday evening when a bulk carrier traversing the Gulf of Aden was pursued for nearly two hours by multiple small, armed boats—an alarming sign that the waters off Yemen are once again boiling with threats.

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UKMTO confirmed the incident occurred 100 nautical miles east of Aden, with gunfire reported and the vessel forced into evasive maneuvers toward the Yemeni coastline. Though no casualties were reported and the ship managed to continue its course, the confrontation has set off security alarms across the maritime world.

Who were these armed men? That’s the burning question. While some suspect traditional piracy, analysts at Neptune P2P Group argue the tactics were uncharacteristic—suggesting a more dangerous twist. Could this be a dry run for Houthi-aligned maritime militia? Or a rogue coastal faction flexing its muscle?

The Houthis, fresh off a ceasefire hiatus tied to Gaza, have recently threatened to resume attacks on shipping—especially those with Israeli links. While they’ve stayed silent about this specific incident, the implications are ominous.

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What’s certain is this: piracy in the Gulf of Aden never truly died. The brief calm following the 2023 resurgence now seems like a prelude to a new wave of asymmetric sea warfare. The EU’s extension of Operation Atalanta through 2027 suddenly looks like a prophetic move.

And the danger isn’t isolated. From Somali pirates re-emerging to Houthi threats and rogue militias in war-torn Yemen, the Gulf of Aden is becoming a maritime minefield—one gunboat away from full-scale chaos.

The next incident may not end with a safe escape—but a ship taken hostage.

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China Slaps Trump With Brutal Reality Check as Trade War Turns Global

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Chinese state media blasts Trump’s tariff war, accuses U.S. of freeloading on globalization while Xi strengthens Asian alliances.

China lashes out at Trump’s economic nationalism, accusing the U.S. of hypocrisy as global trade realigns. Rare earths, aircraft, and semiconductors are next in this economic war.

Beijing just turned up the heat—and made it personal.

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China Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, has delivered a scathing editorial aimed squarely at Donald Trump, telling him to “stop whining” and stop pretending the U.S. is a victim of global trade. “The U.S. is not getting ripped off by anybody,” it declared. “It has been taking a free ride on globalization for decades.”

The insult isn’t just rhetorical—it’s strategic. Trump’s aggressive tariff campaign, which now includes up to 145% duties on Chinese imports, has sparked the fiercest economic duel in decades. But China isn’t retreating. Instead, it’s choking U.S. exporters and fueling regional alliances that sideline Washington altogether.

Xi Jinping’s surprise regional tour, now overlapping with this tariff escalation, is no coincidence. Xi is quietly building what he calls a “strategic alliance of destiny” with Malaysia and ASEAN countries. Translation: Beijing is done playing by Trump’s rules. While the U.S. ratchets up tariffs and threatens new probes into semiconductors, pharma, and rare earths, China is reinforcing control of critical global supply chains.

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The stakes? Massive. The Hong Kong postal service just banned packages to the U.S., Boeing deals are stalling, and Chinese firms are moving supply lines away from American manufacturers. Rare earth export bans are already shaking markets, and Beijing’s shadow diplomacy is redrawing global trade corridors.

Trump says, “The ball is in China’s court.” But Beijing just spiked it—with force.

Bottom line: This is not just a trade war. It’s a global economic realignment. And China’s message to the world? America’s time as the global economic sheriff is over—and it has only itself to blame.

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UK Keeps Feeding Somalia’s War Machine: Another $3.9 Million for Militarized Mogadishu

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As the UK pumps millions more into Somalia’s army, Somaliland faces heightened threats while UNSOS fuels an increasingly unstable regional arms race.

The British government just wired another $3.9 million to fuel Mogadishu’s militarization—and Somalilanders are asking: “Who is this war chest really aimed at?”

On Monday, the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) confirmed the UK’s latest cash drop into the Somali Security Forces (SSF) Trust Fund, bringing British support to a staggering $50 million since 2021. The funds pay for food, fuel, medevac missions—and logistics for nearly 19,000 Somali troops, with expansion plans already in motion.

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These aren’t peacekeepers. This is a foreign-funded, UN-managed fighting force—trained, equipped, and deployed at a time when Somalia is entrenching its hold on Las Anod, and threatening Somaliland’s borders. Where is this force going? And against whom?

The UK claims it’s backing the fight against “violent extremists.” But that same Somali government just welcomed Turkish military bases, offered Chinese-backed oil deals in disputed territory, and is building an army that doesn’t even control its capital without foreign troops.

The funding also helps facilitate frontline evacuations—a reminder that this isn’t just security. It’s active warfare.

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British Ambassador Mike Nithavrianakis proudly called Somalia “a firm friend.” But whose security is being guaranteed? Somaliland’s sovereignty? No. In fact, the very funds flowing through UNSOS could end up emboldening Somalia’s push into contested lands, or worse—into Somaliland territory itself.

And while Somalia’s National Security Advisor promises “transparency and accountability,” the record shows militia infiltration, human rights violations, and chronic misuse of donor funds.

Somaliland’s silence in this equation is dangerous. The longer Hargeisa fails to demand a separate recognition in global security structures, the more millions will be funneled into the very force seeking to erase it from the map.

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This isn’t a donation. It’s arming instability.

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Erdogan’s Ottoman Hustle: How Turkey Is Playing Trump to Crush American Business in Africa

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While Trump talks business, Erdogan snatches U.S. oil fields and military contracts in Somalia and Syria—turning allies into proxies and profits.

Trump wants to put America first. But Erdogan wants to put America in check.

As President Donald Trump moves to limit U.S. exposure abroad, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is running a global hustle—undercutting American firms, sponsoring proxies, and hijacking U.S. influence from Somalia to Syria.

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The latest example? Las Anod—the town Somalia seized from Somaliland in 2023, with China’s blessing. Erdogan didn’t just nod; he sent his oil company. Just months after the offensive, Turkey’s state-owned petroleum giant signed rights to land blocks in Somalia, including the Holhol bloc—once explored by Houston-based ConocoPhillips.

And who’s facilitating the handover? Somalia’s PM Hamza Barre, Erdogan’s new pawn. Barre’s Las Anod visit wasn’t diplomacy—it was resource extraction theater, designed to reward Turkish firms for backing Mogadishu’s illegal annexation of Somaliland land.

This isn’t partnership. This is daylight robbery.

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Erdogan has already entrenched himself inside Mogadishu’s airport, where U.S. diplomats operate under Turkish security. He built a naval base, trains Somali forces, and now wants the entire Horn of Africa oil patch—all while selling himself to Trump as a strongman “ally.”

He even married his drone empire into power—literally. Erdogan’s daughter is married to Selçuk Bayraktar, Turkey’s top defense tech mogul. Baykar drones are now exported to Somalia, Syria, and anywhere Turkey wants leverage.

Meanwhile in Syria, Erdogan props up puppet president Ahmed al-Sharaa, who funnels reconstruction contracts to Ankara—not Washington. And in the Eastern Mediterranean? Erdogan is expanding maritime claims, slashing through U.S.-backed gas corridors to grab more sea-based wealth.

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Erdogan is not Trump’s partner. He’s his economic predator.

While Trump believes business is the best diplomacy—and he’s right—he’s being played. If America doesn’t wake up, Erdogan will gut U.S. influence across East Africa, the Levant, and the Mediterranean—all while laughing on the phone with Beijing and cashing checks in Ankara.

It’s time for the U.S. to stop the charade, shut down Turkey’s energy grabs in Africa, and back real partners—like Somaliland and Israel—who fight for security, not Ottoman revenge fantasies.

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Syrian Forces Target Iran’s Secret Arms Routes in Shadow Border War

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Iran-backed Hezbollah caught smuggling weapons across Syrian-Lebanese border as new HTS regime fights to cut Tehran’s reach.

A covert war is raging along the 233-mile border between Syria and Lebanon—and at its heart lies a high-stakes battle to cut off Hezbollah’s lifeline.

According to a bombshell Washington Post report, deadly clashes have erupted between Hezbollah militants and Syrian patrol units, as the Iran-backed terror group scrambles to restore its weapons flow after sustaining crippling losses in its recent war with Israel. With arms stockpiles depleted and senior leadership buried under rubble, Hezbollah is betting everything on reopening its old smuggling trails.

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But the game has changed.

Syria’s new HTS-led government, which replaced the Assad regime, has vowed to dismantle Iran’s grip on the border. Commanders report sniper fire, ambushes, and smuggling seizures as Tehran tries to reactivate networks buried since the civil war. “They are trying to open gaps,” said Maher Ziwani, a senior Syrian officer, warning that cooperation between Hezbollah and regional clans has blurred any line between criminal syndicates and terrorist cells.

Despite Israeli airstrikes targeting known Hezbollah positions near Qusayr, caches of Iranian weapons are still being uncovered—in shops, schools, and stairwells just miles from Lebanon. “There is a huge stockpile in Syria that Hezbollah is trying to move out,” said Haid Haid, a Chatham House analyst.

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Local commanders claim more than a dozen shipments have already been intercepted, but confidence is razor-thin. “I don’t trust the border even 1%,” Ziwani admitted.

This isn’t just a smuggling war—it’s a showdown between a restructured Syria and Iran’s vision of permanent regional chaos. As Israel keeps its sights locked on Hezbollah, the HTS regime may be doing Jerusalem’s dirty work—disarming Iran’s proxy, one gunrunner at a time.

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Ethiopia’s PM Appoints Ousted Rebel Leader, Risking New War Flashpoint

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Getachew Reda’s shock return as Abiy’s advisor exposes deep cracks in Tigray politics, fueling fears of civil war 2.0. 

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has thrown gasoline on a smoldering political fire—appointing ousted Tigrayan rebel leader Getachew Reda as his top advisor on East African affairs, a move analysts call nothing short of a ticking bomb.

The war-scarred region of Tigray, still bleeding from the devastating 2020–2022 conflict that killed over 600,000, now faces fresh political tremors. Just weeks after being purged from power in an internal coup by TPLF chief Debretsion Gebremichael, Getachew has been elevated to ministerial rank by the very government he once fought against.

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“This is the ultimate betrayal,” said French researcher Mehdi Labzae. “Getachew still carries real weight among Tigrayans. This move will deepen fractures between the elite and grassroots alike.”

For many in Tigray, this appointment reeks of collaboration with the enemy. Abiy’s camp may see this as a strategic masterstroke—neutralizing a powerful figure—but the optics in Mekelle suggest treason. Already, Debretsion’s faction has seized towns and ousted mayors, with Eritrea quietly backing the maneuvering from the sidelines.

Kjetil Tronvoll, a veteran Horn of Africa analyst, warns that the decision could “accentuate divisions and unravel fragile post-war calm.” The Pretoria peace deal, barely implemented, is now dangling by a thread as the TPLF descends into chaos.

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Behind the scenes, fears of a new Tigrayan power struggle—possibly a return to armed confrontation—are growing. With Eritrea lurking and Addis Ababa scheming, Tigray’s battlefield may soon shift from trenches to palaces.

The question now isn’t if Ethiopia’s fragile peace will hold. It’s how long until the knives are drawn again.

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UN Security Council Targets Somalia’s Growing Divisions and Al-Shabaab’s Exploitation

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As Al-Shabaab steps up attacks, the UN seeks solutions to Somalia’s federal tensions and regional instability.

The United Nations Security Council is preparing to confront the uncomfortable truth about Somalia: the country’s fragile political order is fracturing, and Al-Shabaab is exploiting the chaos with lethal precision. As James Swan prepares to brief the Council, what’s at stake is more than just procedural governance — it’s the very future of a unified Somali state.

Clan rivalries, mistrust between the federal government and regional states, and a stalled constitution are creating the perfect vacuum for the al-Qaeda-linked terror group to reassert control. Al-Shabaab, designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S., UN, EU, and African Union, has long capitalized on Somali fragmentation. But now, the group is becoming bolder, bloodier, and more strategic — targeting not just civilians but the very heart of the government, including direct attacks on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

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What the UN session signals is a mounting international alarm over two interconnected crises: Somalia’s internal political disarray and the resurgence of a terrorist group emboldened by federal paralysis. While the African Union’s new AUSSOM mission is a key pillar in stabilization efforts, it’s hampered by a lack of funding, political coordination, and clarity in command.

Meanwhile, Trump’s White House has revived U.S. airstrike campaigns in Somalia, a rare bright spot in terms of operational pressure on Al-Shabaab and IS-Somalia factions entrenched in Puntland. The Ethiopian Air Force, too, has taken initiative — but regional interventions cannot replace a functioning national strategy.

This upcoming Security Council session is less about reviewing blueprints and more about calling out dysfunction. Without a unified Somali political front, the country will remain a target-rich environment for extremist insurgents, and international support will continue to operate in a vacuum.

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What Somalia needs is a political reckoning, not just military reinforcements. AUSSOM must be matched by constitutional clarity, inclusive governance, and a federal system that works — or else, as past decades have proven, terror will keep winning.

If this session ends in diplomatic platitudes and vague funding pledges, Al-Shabaab won’t just survive — it will thrive.

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Somaliland Vice President Leads Historic Nationalization of Civilian Forces

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Vice President Aw Abdi Unifies Civilian Forces for National Strength.

Somaliland’s commitment to national unity and robust security, Vice President Mohamed Ali Aw Abdi led a crucial delegation today, overseeing the integration and nationalization of the Civilian Forces and their combat vehicles. This landmark event, prominently celebrated in Turka area, Gar-Adag District, symbolizes a strategic shift towards centralizing military strength under a unified national command.

Vice President Aw Abdi’s acknowledgment of the pivotal role played by the Turka community underscores the government’s emphasis on grassroots cooperation in achieving national security objectives. The move not only strengthens internal cohesion but also sends a clear signal of stability and preparedness to external observers and potential threats.

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Further demonstrating the administration’s determination, the Vice President extended his mission to the Saraar Region’s capital, Caynaba, where another major ceremony marked the nationalization of additional forces transferred from Oog District. This transfer signifies the first batch in the region to be officially integrated, setting a precedent for future operations nationwide.

In a comprehensive address, Vice President Aw Abdi reinforced the Waddajir and Wax-Qabad Government’s ambitious strategy, emphasizing their commitment to a unified and robust Somaliland army. “Our vision is clear: one strong army, sufficiently capable of safeguarding Somaliland’s sovereignty and peace,” Aw Abdi declared.

This strategic nationalization represents a critical step toward strengthening Somaliland’s sovereignty claims and security apparatus. With regional tensions escalating, this consolidation ensures that Somaliland is not only internally cohesive but also strategically positioned to face external pressures and challenges confidently.

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This initiative marks a transformative moment, promising increased national stability and showcasing the government’s proactive approach to defense and security. This pivotal development is likely to reverberate positively both domestically and in the broader geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa.

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