Terrorism
Al-Shabaab is 18 Years Old: Six Factors Behind The Militant Group’s Resilience
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The United Nations Security Council extended the mandate for the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis) on August 15, 2024, marking 18 years of international efforts to crush the homegrown parasite that is al-Shabaab. Yet, despite the presence of 12,626 troops in an ostensibly noble mission, the reality on the ground tells a different story: al-Shabaab stands strong as ever, thriving amidst chaos. So, why does this militant group remain such a stubborn enigma?
Emerging from the ashes of a disintegrating Somali state in 2006, often cloaked in the mantle of radical sharia law, al-Shabaab has endured unimaginable setbacks, from battlefield defeats to territorial losses. Yet, alongside these defeats, it has forged alliances and adapted in ways that challenge Western counterinsurgency efforts. Indeed, as a member of the al-Qaeda global terrorist network since 2012, al-Shabaab boasts an estimated fighting force of 7,000 to 12,000, making it a formidable adversary within the jihadist realm.
So, what fuels its relentless adaptability?
1. The Flawed Western Doctrine
The West’s approach, centered around a misguided “hearts and minds” strategy, has failed spectacularly. Building democratic institutions in a war zone is akin to constructing sandcastles at high tide: ineffective and short-lived. As a result, civilians are left to navigate a perilous landscape, often coerced into supporting insurgents simply for survival. This has created a vacuum that al-Shabaab exploits, positioning itself as a protector in a chaotic environment.
2. The Taxation Machine
Al-Shabaab operates like a well-oiled revenue collection engine, thriving on illegal taxation, extortion, and criminal enterprises. The failure of government forces to secure areas once thought ‘liberated’ has allowed the group to maintain control even in territories patrolled by African Union forces. While the Somali government has made strides in countering this revenue stream, such as cracking down on electronic payments, it fails to grasp a crucial point: in a state of lawlessness, desperate citizens willingly fund their oppressors for a semblance of security.
3. The Protector Paradox
Ironically, al-Shabaab’s brutal interpretation of sharia law also contributes to its stronghold. By presenting itself as a stabilizing force—albeit a harsh one—it cultivates an image of predictability and order. The group’s court system, though draconian, delivers results in a landscape largely abandoned by the state, endearing it to a population in desperate need of structure.
4. Clan Rivalries: A Double-Edged Sword
In Somalia, clans are not just social constructs; they dictate every facet of life, including allegiances to al-Shabaab. The group’s strategic courting of clan leaders fortifies its position while undermining government attempts at cohesive governance. Yet, as government forces attempt to rally clan support against al-Shabaab, internal rivalries only serve to splinter these efforts, driving some clans into the arms of the very group they are meant to fight.
5. Somali Army: A House of Cards
While there’s a glimmer of hope with the emergence of a more structured Somali army, the reality is sobering. With approximately 19,000 troops, including mobile forces trained by Western allies, the army is hamstrung by internal corruption, clan-based recruitment, and a lack of logistical capacity. This undermines their ability to launch simultaneous offensives—raising serious skepticism about their capacity to assert control and protect federal states against al-Shabaab.
6. Safe Havens: The Fortress of Al-Shabaab
Crucially, the strongholds in the lower and middle Juba regions remain untouched by the current military offensives. With a decade and a half of established governance, these territories have transformed into sanctuaries for al-Shabaab, enabling the group to regroup, train new recruits, and strategize—essentially, a breeding ground for jihadist ideology and operations.
What Lies Ahead?
The apparent stalemate in Somalia’s fight against al-Shabaab raises urgent questions about the efficacy of existing strategies. The past clearly holds lessons for the future, yet these lessons are often disregarded in favor of outdated ideologies. As the battle continues and al-Shabaab evolves, a recalibration of tactics that genuinely puts the Somali people’s security at the forefront is desperately needed. Failing to confront these uncomfortable truths only cements al-Shabaab’s position as a resilient predator in a landscape fraught with despair, chaos, and untapped potential for catastrophe. The world must ask: Can we afford to let this beast thrive unchecked for another eighteen years?
Terrorism
Somalia’s Jihadist Boom: The Islamic State Is Stronger, Richer, and More Deadly
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Somalia’s ISIS isn’t just surviving—it’s thriving. They’re running black-market banks, funding jihadists from Türkiye to Mozambique, and even pulling foreign fighters into Africa. Is the U.S. ready for this war—or about to abandon another battlefield?
Islamic State Somalia Becomes Global Terror Hub—And Washington Is Running Out of Options
Islamic State’s Somalia branch (IS-S) is no longer just a rogue jihadist faction—it’s a fully operational financial and logistical powerhouse fueling global terror. With black-market banking networks, an influx of foreign fighters, and mounting battlefield victories, IS-S is emerging as one of the most dangerous threats in Africa.
U.S. intelligence officials are sounding the alarm, but with Washington shifting its focus away from counterterrorism, Somalia’s Islamic State offshoot is thriving under the radar. Unlike al-Shabaab, which aims to govern Somali territory, IS-S operates like a transnational crime syndicate, moving money, weapons, and fighters across continents.
Somalia’s Black-Market Bank for Global Jihadists
At the heart of IS-S’s expansion is Al-Karrar, the group’s underground financial hub, where millions of dollars are funneled through hawala networks, cryptocurrency transfers, and extortion rackets. Intelligence reports suggest IS-S is laundering millions to fund Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) in Afghanistan, as well as terror cells in Türkiye, Mozambique, and South Africa.
Bilal al-Sudani, a former low-level jihadist, rose to power as IS-S’s chief financier before being taken out by U.S. Special Forces in January 2023. His death was a major blow, but IS-S has adapted—its money-laundering operations have only expanded, making it a critical financial artery for ISIS’s global network.
IS-S Is Not Just Recruiting Fighters—It’s Recruiting Skills
The terror group is no longer just pulling in Somali militants. Foreign recruits from Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Syria, and Tanzania are pouring in, bringing expertise in mechanics, agriculture, and logistics—all essential for sustaining a long-term insurgency.
December 31, 2024, was a turning point. In a coordinated nighttime assault, IS-S militants stormed a Puntland military base, using suicide bombers—many of them foreign fighters—to breach defenses before slaughtering scores of soldiers. The attack was broadcast across jihadist forums, signaling to the world that IS-S is no longer just a local threat—it’s an expanding force capable of carrying out large-scale operations.
The U.S. Faces A Fading Window for Action
The Biden administration spent years arming and funding Somali counterterrorism forces, but Trump’s new administration faces a decision—stay in the fight or cut losses and leave. The U.S. has already pulled troops from parts of Africa, and Somalia could be next.
“Islamic State Somalia has gone global—acting as the financial and logistical nerve center for ISIS worldwide. The U.S. is bombing targets, but will it stay in the fight, or will IS-S exploit America’s retreat, much like the Taliban in Afghanistan?”
But abandoning Somalia would hand IS-S a golden opportunity to expand unchallenged, much like what happened when the Taliban seized Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrawal.
Complicating matters is the potential collapse of U.S.-funded humanitarian programs, which support more than 3 million displaced Somalis. A vacuum in aid and security could create the perfect recruitment ground for IS-S, leaving thousands of young men with no future—except jihad.
A Ticking Time Bomb—And The West’s Next Headache
Somalia’s Islamic State branch has evolved into something far deadlier than a local insurgency. It’s a global logistics machine, funding, recruiting, and coordinating terror operations across multiple continents.
With navies stretched thin in the Red Sea, piracy resurging, and Somalia’s government struggling to contain the jihadist threat, IS-S is exploiting the chaos to build its empire.
If Washington steps back now, Somalia’s ISIS problem won’t stay in Somalia. It will spread—across Africa, the Middle East, and eventually, the West. The only question left: Will America act before it’s too late?
Terrorism
Senior Al-Shabaab Commander Defects Amid Somalia’s Intensified Crackdown
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High-ranking Al-Shabaab commander surrenders to Somali forces as defections rise under military pressure.
Somalia’s relentless offensive against Al-Shabaab has pushed yet another senior commander to abandon the militant group. Abuukar Aadan Buulle, a key figure within Al-Shabaab’s ranks, surrendered to Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) forces in Luuq, Gedo region.
Buulle, who trained in Wargaduudo village and later commanded Al-Shabaab operations in Ceel Cadde, revealed he had been with the group since 2015, actively participating in multiple battles. Now, he has defected, urging his former comrades to follow his lead and abandon the insurgency.
His surrender reflects a strategic collapse within Al-Shabaab, as intensified military offensives and security crackdowns continue to dismantle their operational strongholds. The Somali government has amplified efforts to weaken the terror group from within, encouraging defections while delivering decisive military blows.
With defections on the rise and Al-Shabaab losing ground, the Somali government is gaining momentum in its war to eradicate the militant presence once and for all. More commanders will likely follow suit—as the battlefield grows smaller, surrender may be their only escape.
Terrorism
Telegram Shuts Down Key ISIS Propaganda Channel Amid Puntland Conflict
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Telegram takes down ISIS’s Iclaam news website, a major propaganda outlet covering the war in Puntland. Meanwhile, ISIS shifts its messaging to Facebook.
Telegram has taken decisive action against ISIS propaganda, shutting down the Iclaam website, a key outlet used by the terror group to spread war reports and recruitment messaging. This move disrupts ISIS’s ability to control its narrative on the ongoing conflict in the Calmiskaad mountains of Puntland, where Puntland forces continue their offensive to dismantle the group’s strongholds.
ISIS has long relied on Telegram as a secure and effective platform for communication, recruitment, and psychological warfare. However, tech companies have increasingly cracked down on extremist content, and Iclaam’s removal signals a continued effort to restrict the group’s influence.
While it remains unclear whether the Somali Federal Government played a role in the takedown, Mogadishu has previously targeted and removed hundreds of Al-Shabaab and ISIS-affiliated websites as part of its counterterrorism strategy.
Undeterred, ISIS has swiftly adapted, launching a new media platform, Tageere Radio Hijratayn, through Facebook. This outlet now serves as the group’s primary channel for broadcasting war updates, spreading propaganda, and attempting to radicalize new recruits.
The Puntland government has vowed to take action against those engaging with ISIS media, with authorities already handing down prison sentences to suspected supporters. As Puntland forces continue tightening their grip on ISIS-controlled areas, the battle against the group’s digital footprint has become just as critical as the fight on the ground.
Terrorism
Islamic State’s Elusive Caliph Revealed? Intelligence Points to Somalia’s Abdul Qadir Mumin
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New intelligence points to Somalia-based Abdul Qadir Mumin as ISIS’s global leader, marking a major shift in the terror group’s strategy.
The hunt for ISIS’s global mastermind may have ended in the mountains of Somalia. Intelligence agencies are circling around Abdul Qadir Mumin, the long-time head of ISIS-Somalia, as the man behind the terror group’s global command. A UN-backed intelligence report suggests growing confidence that Mumin, who has survived multiple assassination attempts, is in fact Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, the elusive ISIS caliph. If confirmed, this marks a radical shift in ISIS’s leadership strategy—placing an African warlord at the helm of the world’s most feared terrorist network.
For years, ISIS has concealed its leadership to evade detection, but new evidence shows the group pivoting from Iraq and Syria to Africa, using Somalia as a hardened command center. Mumin operates from a fortified hideout in Somalia’s Golis Mountains, where he has expanded ISIS’s financial empire, boosted recruitment, and secured advanced weaponry, including drones for precision strikes. U.S. airstrikes have failed to eliminate him, and now, his forces are growing bolder, extending their influence across Somalia and beyond.
ISIS’s shift to Africa signals a major challenge for global counterterrorism forces. As Western intelligence scrambles to confirm Mumin’s role, the terror group continues to evolve, embedding itself deeper into Somalia’s lawless terrain while maintaining operational cells in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. With ISIS-K in Afghanistan escalating attacks and foreign recruits flowing into Somalia, the world may be facing a deadlier, more decentralized ISIS than ever before. If Mumin is indeed the caliph, then the battlefield has changed—making the fight against ISIS even more unpredictable and relentless.
Terrorism
Jubbaland Forces Capture Senior Al-Shabaab Judge
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Jubbaland security forces raid Al-Shabaab stronghold, killing four militants and capturing a high-ranking judge in a strategic counterterrorism operation.
Jubbaland security forces have scored a major counterterrorism victory after capturing a senior Al-Shabaab judicial official and killing four militants in a targeted raid near Dhoobley, southern Somalia.
The high-stakes operation, conducted in the Lafo-Gari area of Lower Juba, led to the arrest of Moalim Mohamed, who served as deputy judge in one of Al-Shabaab’s shadow courts. These courts have been instrumental in enforcing the group’s brutal form of Islamic law, issuing arbitrary punishments and controlling local populations through fear.
According to Colonel Mohamed Heybe, the security commander of Dhoobley district, intelligence reports pinpointed Al-Shabaab activity in the area, prompting a surprise raid by Jubbaland forces.
Upon arrival, around 20 militants engaged the security forces in a fierce gunfight. After a brief but intense battle, four Al-Shabaab fighters, including the group’s financial chief for Lafo-Gari, were eliminated, and two others were wounded before the remaining insurgents fled.
The capture of Moalim Mohamed is a significant development in the ongoing efforts to dismantle Al-Shabaab’s operational and financial networks in Lower Juba. The group has long relied on informal taxation and judicial control to enforce its rule and fund its operations.
This latest operation highlights the increasing effectiveness of Somali federal and regional forces, backed by international partners, in combating the al-Qaeda-linked insurgency that has terrorized Somalia and spilled over into Kenya for more than 15 years.
The Somali government has intensified its military campaign against Al-Shabaab in recent months, with coordinated offensives across multiple regions. The successful raid near Dhoobley underscores Jubbaland’s commitment to eliminating militant strongholds and cutting off Al-Shabaab’s revenue sources.
With continuous operations targeting militant leaders, financiers, and enforcers, the noose is tightening around Al-Shabaab, setting the stage for further counterterrorism successes in southern Somalia.
Terrorism
Puntland Forces Close in on ISIS Stronghold, Final Battle Nears
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Puntland troops push within 15km of ISIS’s last base in Somalia, vowing total eradication of the group.
Puntland forces are tightening the noose around the last ISIS stronghold in Somalia, pushing within 15 kilometers of the group’s final hideouts in the Al Miskaad mountains. Once spread across the Bari region, ISIS militants now control just 40 square kilometers of rugged terrain as Puntland’s military offensive intensifies.
“We are closing in on their final hideouts, and soon, ISIS will be eradicated from this region,” said Puntland’s Minister of Information, Mohamud Aydid Dirir. He asserted that the operation is in its final stage, with forces poised to enter open areas where armored units can be effectively deployed.
Despite Puntland’s advances, Dirir accused Somalia’s federal government of withholding essential military support, stating that national resources remain centralized in Mogadishu while frontline troops battle terrorists without adequate weapons and ammunition.
Puntland has been leading the charge against ISIS in Somalia for weeks, seeking to destroy the group’s last safe haven and eliminate its ability to wage attacks. Military officials insist that operations will continue until ISIS is completely wiped out from Puntland, reinforcing the region’s autonomy and security.
With ISIS on the brink of defeat, Puntland’s offensive represents a critical moment in Somalia’s fight against terrorism. The final battle is imminent, and Puntland is determined to deliver a decisive blow.
Terrorism
UN Warns of Rising IS-K Threat from Afghanistan, Calls for Global Action
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Islamic State-Khorasan’s growing influence in Afghanistan poses a major security risk to the region and beyond, warns UN Security Council.
The UN Security Council has raised alarms over the increasing threat posed by Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) in Afghanistan, warning that the group is actively plotting attacks beyond the region. UN counterterrorism chief Vladimir Voronkov stated that IS-K remains one of the most dangerous branches of ISIS, with networks reaching Europe and Central Asia. The U.S. and China echoed concerns, urging Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers to take decisive action against the terrorist group.
Russia blamed the 2021 NATO withdrawal for fueling IS-K’s expansion, claiming that abandoned Western military equipment has strengthened the group. Meanwhile, Pakistan rejected suggestions that IS-K is recruiting from its territory, insisting that Afghanistan remains the hub for the group’s activities. The Taliban, despite previous claims of eliminating IS-K, continue to face deadly insurgent attacks, including the assassination of a top Taliban minister in December.
With IS-K’s reach growing, the UN has urged all member states to coordinate efforts to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a global terror epicenter once again.
Terrorism
Puntland Seeks Global Aid to Crush ISIS Strongholds
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Puntland requests technical and logistical support to sustain military campaign against ISIS in the Al-Miskaat Mountains.
Puntland’s war against ISIS is intensifying, and its leadership is making a direct call to the international community for urgent support. General Abdirahman Mohamed Jama, commander of the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF), has stressed the need for advanced equipment, including drone interceptors, mine detectors, and night vision devices, to sustain military operations in the Bari region.
For over six weeks, Puntland forces have launched relentless offensives, reclaiming hundreds of square kilometers from ISIS control. The Al-Miskaat Mountains have long been a terrorist stronghold, offering militants natural protection and strategic positioning for attacks. However, Puntland’s military advances have disrupted ISIS’s extortion networks and operational bases.
While General Jama clarified that Puntland is not seeking direct foreign military intervention, intelligence-sharing and logistical aid from international partners are critical to ensuring victory. Puntland’s fight against ISIS is a battle for regional stability, and without enhanced support, the terrorist threat could persist.
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