Terrorism
Al-Shabaab is 18 Years Old: Six Factors Behind The Militant Group’s Resilience
The United Nations Security Council extended the mandate for the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis) on August 15, 2024, marking 18 years of international efforts to crush the homegrown parasite that is al-Shabaab. Yet, despite the presence of 12,626 troops in an ostensibly noble mission, the reality on the ground tells a different story: al-Shabaab stands strong as ever, thriving amidst chaos. So, why does this militant group remain such a stubborn enigma?
Emerging from the ashes of a disintegrating Somali state in 2006, often cloaked in the mantle of radical sharia law, al-Shabaab has endured unimaginable setbacks, from battlefield defeats to territorial losses. Yet, alongside these defeats, it has forged alliances and adapted in ways that challenge Western counterinsurgency efforts. Indeed, as a member of the al-Qaeda global terrorist network since 2012, al-Shabaab boasts an estimated fighting force of 7,000 to 12,000, making it a formidable adversary within the jihadist realm.
So, what fuels its relentless adaptability?
1. The Flawed Western Doctrine
The West’s approach, centered around a misguided “hearts and minds” strategy, has failed spectacularly. Building democratic institutions in a war zone is akin to constructing sandcastles at high tide: ineffective and short-lived. As a result, civilians are left to navigate a perilous landscape, often coerced into supporting insurgents simply for survival. This has created a vacuum that al-Shabaab exploits, positioning itself as a protector in a chaotic environment.
2. The Taxation Machine
Al-Shabaab operates like a well-oiled revenue collection engine, thriving on illegal taxation, extortion, and criminal enterprises. The failure of government forces to secure areas once thought ‘liberated’ has allowed the group to maintain control even in territories patrolled by African Union forces. While the Somali government has made strides in countering this revenue stream, such as cracking down on electronic payments, it fails to grasp a crucial point: in a state of lawlessness, desperate citizens willingly fund their oppressors for a semblance of security.
3. The Protector Paradox
Ironically, al-Shabaab’s brutal interpretation of sharia law also contributes to its stronghold. By presenting itself as a stabilizing force—albeit a harsh one—it cultivates an image of predictability and order. The group’s court system, though draconian, delivers results in a landscape largely abandoned by the state, endearing it to a population in desperate need of structure.
4. Clan Rivalries: A Double-Edged Sword
In Somalia, clans are not just social constructs; they dictate every facet of life, including allegiances to al-Shabaab. The group’s strategic courting of clan leaders fortifies its position while undermining government attempts at cohesive governance. Yet, as government forces attempt to rally clan support against al-Shabaab, internal rivalries only serve to splinter these efforts, driving some clans into the arms of the very group they are meant to fight.
5. Somali Army: A House of Cards
While there’s a glimmer of hope with the emergence of a more structured Somali army, the reality is sobering. With approximately 19,000 troops, including mobile forces trained by Western allies, the army is hamstrung by internal corruption, clan-based recruitment, and a lack of logistical capacity. This undermines their ability to launch simultaneous offensives—raising serious skepticism about their capacity to assert control and protect federal states against al-Shabaab.
6. Safe Havens: The Fortress of Al-Shabaab
Crucially, the strongholds in the lower and middle Juba regions remain untouched by the current military offensives. With a decade and a half of established governance, these territories have transformed into sanctuaries for al-Shabaab, enabling the group to regroup, train new recruits, and strategize—essentially, a breeding ground for jihadist ideology and operations.
What Lies Ahead?
The apparent stalemate in Somalia’s fight against al-Shabaab raises urgent questions about the efficacy of existing strategies. The past clearly holds lessons for the future, yet these lessons are often disregarded in favor of outdated ideologies. As the battle continues and al-Shabaab evolves, a recalibration of tactics that genuinely puts the Somali people’s security at the forefront is desperately needed. Failing to confront these uncomfortable truths only cements al-Shabaab’s position as a resilient predator in a landscape fraught with despair, chaos, and untapped potential for catastrophe. The world must ask: Can we afford to let this beast thrive unchecked for another eighteen years?
Terrorism
Landmine Explosion Kills 13 Puntland Soldiers in Counter-Terrorism Mission
Deadly Attack by ISIS Highlights Growing Threat in Bari Region
At least 13 Puntland soldiers lost their lives, and over seven others sustained injuries on Monday in a deadly landmine explosion in Somalia’s Bari region. The explosion struck an army vehicle carrying Puntland forces engaged in a counter-terrorism mission targeting ISIS militants in the Habley area.
Military officials confirmed that the attack was orchestrated by ISIS, using a roadside mine to devastate the convoy. Some of the injured later succumbed to their wounds, raising the death toll and leaving a grim reminder of the dangers facing Puntland forces in their ongoing fight against extremism.
The attack occurred just days after Puntland officials visited Tasjiic, a nearby area, to rally community support for the military campaign. Officials appealed for livestock donations to bolster troop morale and reinforce efforts to dismantle ISIS strongholds in the mountainous Bari region.
Puntland’s forces have been waging a protracted battle to root out ISIS militants entrenched in remote and rugged terrain, which provides a natural fortress for insurgent activities. The Habley explosion underscores the mounting challenges these forces face, with ISIS employing increasingly lethal tactics to thwart the government’s operations.
The incident is a stark reminder of the human cost of Puntland’s campaign to neutralize ISIS militants and secure stability in the region. As the conflict intensifies, the local government faces growing pressure to adapt its strategy and enhance protections for its security personnel while maintaining the support of affected communities.
Terrorism
Puntland Forces Strike Major Daesh Strongholds in Bari Region
Eight Daesh bases destroyed, drones downed in intense operations targeting militants in the Al-Miskaad mountains.
Puntland’s defense forces have launched a decisive offensive against Daesh militants in the Al-Miskaad mountains of the Bari region, dismantling critical strongholds and disrupting operations in the area. The operation, which targets militant positions, underscores Puntland’s commitment to eradicating extremist groups entrenched in its territory.
The Puntland Marine Police Force (PMPF) announced the destruction of at least eight key Daesh command centers and bases across strategic locations, including streams and mountainous regions such as Lugele, Dhabanacado, Il-Ameyro, Hoobato, Tagtag, and Baal-Gorey. These areas have long served as fortified hubs for extremist activity, complicating counterterrorism efforts in the region.
In a significant development, Puntland forces also shot down drones reportedly used by Daesh for reconnaissance and operational planning. Images of the downed drones, described as spy aircraft, highlight the group’s increasing reliance on technology to bolster its activities.
The operation yielded additional gains, with Puntland forces recovering weapons and ammunition abandoned by retreating militants. However, the situation remains volatile, with opposing movements and clashes continuing in key locations such as the Toga Il-Ameyro area.
Puntland’s campaign to liberate the mountainous Bari region reflects a broader strategy to reclaim territories controlled by extremist groups. These efforts are critical in addressing the persistent security threats posed by Daesh and ensuring stability in the region.
The success of this offensive will be closely monitored as Puntland seeks to dismantle Daesh’s operational network and prevent the group from regrouping in the strategically significant Al-Miskaad mountains.
Terrorism
Puntland Leadership Under Fire Over ISIS Threat
Minister Ali Yusuf Hoosh accuses Puntland President Deni of neglecting counterterrorism, enabling ISIS to strengthen its grip.
The Puntland administration has come under intense scrutiny for its perceived inability to address the escalating ISIS threat in the region. Somalia’s Federal Minister of Interior, Ali Yusuf Hoosh, has accused Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni of neglecting the region’s security needs, allowing ISIS to entrench itself further in Puntland’s rugged Al Miskat Mountains since its foothold was established in 2015.
Minister Hoosh’s criticism follows the recent ISIS assault on a military base in Dharjaale, which left scores of soldiers dead or injured, according to conflicting accounts from ISIS and Puntland authorities. The minister emphasized that Puntland’s leadership has failed to prioritize counterterrorism, instead pursuing policies that he claims are divisive and self-serving.
The Al Miskat Mountains have become a stronghold for ISIS, enabling the group to exploit Puntland’s strategic location for smuggling and extortion operations. The group’s activities now pose a significant threat to regional stability, raising concerns about the administration’s lack of a cohesive security strategy.
Minister Hoosh urged Puntland’s intellectuals and citizens to challenge the leadership’s trajectory and advocate for policies aligned with national unity and solidarity. His call for accountability also highlights the Somali federal government’s recent successes in governance and security, underscoring Puntland’s critical role in fostering political stability across Somalia.
As Puntland grapples with these challenges, its leadership faces mounting pressure to adopt effective counterterrorism measures and address the governance issues fueling discontent among its populace. The region’s response to these critiques will be pivotal in determining its ability to combat the persistent ISIS threat and restore public trust.
Terrorism
Al-Shabab’s Financier Behind Westgate, Dusit Attacks Killed in Somalia
U.S. confirms airstrike that eliminated Mohamed Mire, al-Shabaab’s key figure in financing and orchestrating attacks in Kenya and Somalia.
Mohamed Mire, also known as Abu Abdirahman, a senior leader of al-Shabaab, has been confirmed dead following a U.S. airstrike near Quyno Barrow in Somalia. As the group’s finance chief during the infamous Westgate Mall and DusitD2 attacks, Mire was a pivotal figure in al-Shabaab’s operations over the last 15 years. His death represents a major setback for the militant group.
Mire played a key role in financing and planning attacks that left scores of civilians dead in Kenya. The Westgate Mall siege in 2013 claimed the lives of over 60 people, while the DusitD2 attack in 2019 resulted in 22 fatalities. Beyond Kenya, Mire was instrumental in maintaining al-Shabaab’s hold over territories in Somalia, overseeing financial networks and managing the group’s regional governance.
U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) has highlighted Mire’s extensive influence within al-Shabaab, describing him as one of the group’s longest-serving members and a central figure in its strategic operations. His role as head of al-Shabaab’s regions department, equivalent to an interior ministry, positioned him at the core of the group’s governance and military activities.
In recent years, Mire’s name has been a constant on sanctions lists and global terror designations. U.S. officials labeled him a global terrorist in 2022, citing his role in planning operations and financing al-Shabaab’s activities. Despite international efforts to curb his influence, Mire continued to facilitate the group’s activities, leveraging resources to sustain its insurgency against the Somali government.
The airstrike that eliminated Mire is part of an ongoing campaign by AFRICOM to degrade al-Shabaab’s capabilities. While the operation marks a significant victory against terrorism, the broader challenge of dismantling al-Shabaab’s network and mitigating its influence in East Africa remains.
Mire’s death underscores the international community’s commitment to counterterrorism in the region and highlights the ongoing efforts to bring stability to East Africa, even as al-Shabaab continues to pose a persistent threat.
Analysis
Islamic State Claims Responsibility for Deadly Puntland Military Base Attack in Somalia
Attack underscores the growing threat of ISIS in Somalia as the group evolves into a strategic hub for global jihadist operations.
The attack on a Puntland military base by the Islamic State group is a grim reminder of the evolving and escalating threat of extremism in Somalia. What was once a fringe faction in the Horn of Africa has transformed into a significant actor in the global jihadist network. This attack, involving suicide bombers and booby-trapped vehicles, reportedly killed 22 military personnel and injured many others, underscoring the growing capabilities of the group.
The Somali government has long focused its counterterrorism efforts on al-Shabaab, which dominates much of southern Somalia. However, the resurgence of ISIS in the mountainous terrains of Puntland, particularly under the leadership of Abdulqadir Mumin, signals a dangerous shift. Mumin, once a minor jihadist figure, has positioned ISIS-Somalia as a linchpin in the group’s global strategy. The influx of foreign fighters and a robust extortion-based revenue stream have bolstered their operations, enabling attacks of increasing scale and sophistication.
The attack highlights Puntland’s precarious position in Somalia’s security landscape. Known as a relatively stable region in comparison to southern areas plagued by al-Shabaab, Puntland’s stability is now being undermined by ISIS’s growing foothold. The group’s reliance on extortion to fund its operations has further exacerbated local grievances, with businesses forced into compliance under threat of violence. This economic stranglehold not only finances attacks but also undermines public trust in state security forces.
ISIS’s growing influence in Somalia is also emblematic of a broader trend: the decentralization of the Islamic State’s operations globally. As the group faced territorial losses in the Middle East, it turned to other regions to maintain its relevance. In Africa, Somalia has become a crucial node, linking operations across the continent. This role as a “nerve center” has made the Somali branch a priority for ISIS’s global leadership, a development that has dangerous implications for regional and international security.
The Somali government, along with international partners, must recalibrate its counterterrorism strategy to address the dual threat posed by al-Shabaab and ISIS. While military operations remain essential, they must be complemented by measures to weaken the group’s economic grip on local communities. Enhanced regional cooperation, particularly with Puntland’s leadership, and targeted efforts to disrupt ISIS’s funding streams are critical.
The attack also raises questions about the effectiveness of Somalia’s counterterrorism capabilities, especially in its northern regions. Despite reports of successfully repulsing the attack, the casualties highlight significant vulnerabilities in Puntland’s defenses. Strengthening these capabilities through international assistance and better coordination between regional and federal forces is essential to counter ISIS’s growing momentum.
As ISIS evolves in Somalia, the group poses not only a direct threat to the country but also to the broader Horn of Africa. If left unchecked, its influence could spill over into neighboring countries, further destabilizing an already fragile region. The attack on Puntland’s military base is not just an isolated incident but a stark warning of what lies ahead if the international community and Somali authorities fail to act decisively.
Terrorism
10 Dead, Dozens Injured After Vehicle Plows Into Crowd in ‘Terrorist Attack’
Suspect kills 10, injures dozens in a chilling New Year’s terrorist rampage on Bourbon Street.
The vibrant streets of New Orleans, packed with New Year’s revelers, were transformed into scenes of terror and tragedy early Wednesday morning. A pickup truck plowed into crowds on Bourbon Street, leaving at least 10 dead and dozens injured in what officials have classified as a terrorist attack.
This heinous act highlights the growing prevalence of vehicle-ramming attacks, a low-tech but devastating tactic increasingly favored by terrorists seeking to maximize casualties.
The suspect bypassed barricades and unleashed terror over a three-block stretch, firing indiscriminately into the crowd before engaging in a shootout with police. Two officers were wounded, but law enforcement neutralized the suspect. The use of improvised explosive devices around the scene further underscores the premeditated nature of the attack.
Authorities have not yet identified the assailant, but connections to ISIS are under investigation. The flag reportedly attached to the truck hints at ideological motivations, although its significance is still being determined.
Rising Threat of Low-Tech Terrorism
This attack underscores the persistent threat of low-tech terrorism, which has been a focal point for federal and local agencies. Vehicle ramming has become a recurring tactic, particularly during large-scale public gatherings, despite heightened security measures.
The FBI, leading the investigation, has warned about the potential for such attacks during high-profile events, a concern tragically realized on one of New Orleans’ busiest nights.
This incident raises pressing questions about urban security and counter-terrorism efforts in the United States. Despite being on high alert, the New Orleans Police Department was unable to prevent the carnage, even with significant reinforcements.
The attack also underscores the globalized nature of modern terrorism. If ISIS connections are confirmed, it will reignite debates about counter-terrorism strategies, intelligence sharing, and the effectiveness of measures aimed at preventing radicalization.
As New Orleans mourns the victims, the focus must shift to enhancing urban security against evolving threats. The incident is a stark reminder that even amidst celebrations, vigilance remains paramount.
The tragedy on Bourbon Street will undoubtedly leave a lasting impact on the city, its residents, and the broader national discourse on terrorism and public safety. While the immediate focus is on recovery and justice, long-term solutions must address the root causes and mechanisms that allow such attacks to occur.
Terrorism
Puntland Deputy Speaker Survives ISIS Attack Amid Rising Threat
Intense assault highlights growing danger of IS-Somalia as Puntland intensifies counterterrorism efforts.
Puntland Deputy Speaker Mohamed Shire Baari narrowly escaped a brazen attack by Islamic State militants in the Dharjaale area of Somalia’s Bari region. The ambush, involving a suicide bomber and heavily armed fighters, underscores the escalating threat posed by IS-Somalia as it expands its foothold in the region.
The attack unfolded Tuesday morning when a suicide explosion targeted Puntland forces led by Baari. This initial blast was followed by intense combat as militants engaged in close-quarters battle. Baari, in Dharjaale to organize anti-ISIS operations, emerged unscathed, but the attack inflicted casualties among Puntland forces. The exact toll remains unconfirmed.
Preliminary findings indicate that foreign fighters participated in the assault, with one detonating a suicide vest while others launched a coordinated attack on Puntland forces. However, the militants were ultimately neutralized, demonstrating Puntland’s capacity to respond swiftly to such threats.
This attack highlights the growing menace of IS-Somalia, whose estimated 600-700 fighters have been bolstered by an influx of foreign operatives, as noted in a November 2024 United Nations report. The group has capitalized on Puntland’s rugged Alimiskat mountains, establishing the area as a stronghold and staging ground for operations.
Puntland state leaders have ramped up their counterterrorism campaign, with large-scale offensives targeting IS-Somalia’s bases. These efforts are critical to dismantling the group’s infrastructure, but the latest attack shows the enduring challenges posed by insurgents capable of sophisticated and coordinated strikes.
The resurgence of ISIS in Somalia not only threatens Puntland but also destabilizes the broader region. The group’s tactics—ranging from suicide bombings to guerrilla warfare—have sown fear and disrupted governance in Somalia’s northern territories. The attack on Baari serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for sustained military action and international support to contain the group’s expansion.
As Puntland intensifies its counterterrorism operations, the success of these efforts will hinge on robust intelligence gathering, regional cooperation, and targeted offensives to dismantle IS-Somalia’s networks. The stakes are high, with the outcome of this campaign likely to shape the region’s security landscape in the years ahead.
Terrorism
U.S. Drone Strike Eliminates Al-Shabab Commander in Somalia
Mohamed Mire, head of Al-Shabab’s regions department, killed in coordinated strike with Somali government.
A U.S.-led drone strike in Somalia has eliminated Mohamed Mire, a senior Al-Shabab commander and the head of the group’s regions department, often likened to an interior ministry. The strike, conducted in coordination with Somali government forces, marks a significant blow to the militant group’s leadership as part of ongoing counterterrorism efforts in East Africa.
AFRICOM confirmed the operation, which took place on December 24 near Kunyo Barrow in the Lower Shabelle Region. According to U.S. officials, the airstrike killed two militants, with no reported civilian casualties. Somali authorities described the operation as “well-planned” and a culmination of joint efforts to neutralize Mire, who was traveling from Jilib to Kunyo Barrow when targeted.
Mire’s role within Al-Shabab was pivotal. As the head of the regions department, he oversaw critical operations and strategic decision-making. U.S. officials had designated him a global terrorist in October 2022, linking him to the group’s governance structures and numerous attacks across Somalia.
The drone strike highlights the ongoing collaboration between AFRICOM and Somali government forces to degrade Al-Shabab’s operational capacity. AFRICOM’s statement reiterated its commitment to training, advising, and equipping Somali partner forces to counter the persistent threat posed by the militant group.
Mire’s death is a part of broader efforts to dismantle Al-Shabab’s leadership. In July, Somalia’s anti-money laundering committee sanctioned Mire and seven other commanders, targeting their financial networks and operational capabilities.
Al-Shabab has long been a destabilizing force in East Africa, orchestrating attacks both within Somalia and across the region. The group’s resilience is partly attributed to its hierarchical structure, which allows for continuity despite leadership losses. However, the elimination of key figures like Mire disrupts its governance and operational efficiency.
The strike also underscores the strategic importance of continued international collaboration in Somalia. As AFRICOM and Somali forces intensify their efforts, the group faces mounting pressure, though its ability to regroup and retaliate remains a challenge.
The death of Mohamed Mire marks a tactical victory in the fight against Al-Shabab, emphasizing the efficacy of U.S.-Somali coordination in counterterrorism efforts. As operations against the group continue, this strike sends a clear message that key leaders remain high-value targets in the ongoing campaign to stabilize Somalia and East Africa.
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