Analysis
Potential Democratic Replacements for Joe Biden in the 2024 Presidential Race
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Who’s likely to replace Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential race?
Biden’s withdrawal from the election has left an opening for a new Democrat to claim the party nod. Who will it be? It was the culmination of weeks of pressure, closed-door negotiations and public gaffes: President Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he would no longer be seeking the Democratic nomination for a second term in the White House.
But Biden’s decision has left the Democratic Party in an unprecedented position. Who will fill his shoes and face off against Republican nominee Donald Trump in November’s presidential race? Delegates for the party are scheduled to come together on August 19 for the Democratic National Convention, where they will cast their votes for Biden’s successor.
Here, WARYATV breaks down some of the most likely options, their strengths and weaknesses — and identifies former contenders who have now endorsed another candidate. Vice President Kamala Harris
Harris is Biden’s most likely heir, having served as his running mate and vice president for nearly four years.
On Sunday, Biden also formally endorsed Harris for the nomination.
But Harris has struggled to make an impact during her time at the White House. Her role, like that of many vice presidents, has been low profile, and she struggled with dismal approval ratings early in her tenure.
In 2021, for instance, a poll from USA Today and Suffolk University found that she only had 28 percent support rate- a figure that showed her ranking lower than previous vice presidents, like Dick Cheney.
But as Biden prepared to exit the race in 2024, Harris found her star rising. A poll last week from The Associated Press news agency and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 74 percent of Democrats found her performance “favourable”. The vice president also enjoys the support of several members of Congress, including Representative Jim Clyburn, a former Biden stalwart. “I’m going to be for Harris if Biden ain’t there,” he told USA Today earlier this month.
Originally from Oakland, California, Harris previously served as attorney general of the state and a US senator. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
Unlike Newsom, Whitmer represents a coveted swing state in this year’s presidential election: Michigan, part of the industrial Rust Belt region.
She too has campaigned for Biden and reaffirmed her support for the beleaguered president as pressures mounted for him to end his re-election campaign.
“I am an enthusiastic supporter of President Biden, and I’m going to work my tail off to make sure he gets a second term,” she told NPR in early July after Biden’s flop debate performance. Born and raised in the state capital of Lansing, Whitmer was elected to the state legislature multiple times and served on the Democratic National Committee before she entered the governor’s mansion.
A self-described progressive, she has also had high-profile public clashes with Trump, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Whitmer implemented a stay-at-home order at the start of the pandemic and issued restrictions on large-scale gatherings in her state. That prompted Trump, who opposed certain safety restrictions, to call her a “dictator” and denounce her on social media.
Later that same year, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) announced it had foiled a far-right attempt to kidnap Whitmer over her COVID-19 policies.
But Whitmer has rallied her state’s Democrats, helping to lead the party to a historic victory in 2022: Not only did Whitmer reclaim the governor’s mansion, but Democrats flipped both the state House and Senate. That gave the party a “trifecta” for the first time since 1984.
Nationally, Whitmer in recent days has returned to taking on Trump. Ahead of the former president’s rally on Saturday in Michigan with his VP pick JD Vance, Whitmer put out a cheeky video reminding Trump that the state had strong abortion rights and accusing him of reneging on promises made to autoworkers in Detroit. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker
Like many on the shortlist to replace Biden, Pritzker is not only a governor but also a prominent surrogate for Biden on the campaign trail, working to rally support.
While Pritzker’s home state of Illinois is a traditional Democratic stronghold, it is a key intersection for the Midwest, a region where agriculture and industry collide.
Illinois also is a stone’s throw away from key swing states like Wisconsin. Pritzker has tried to leverage his roots in the region to his – and Biden’s – advantage, pledging to build a “blue wall” across the Midwest.
“Here’s the thing that people from the coasts might not understand about Midwestern Democrats. We will be Midwest nice to you, while we Midwest beat you,” he said on the campaign trail, playing up his regional identity while slamming Trump. A lawyer with decades of political experience, Pritzker previously co-chaired Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign.
When he set his sights on the governor’s mansion in 2017, he invested more than $42m of his own wealth in his campaign: His family owns Hyatt Hotels and Resorts. He has since won two terms.
Pritzker is no stranger to taking on Trump, calling his far-right movement a “cancer” spreading throughout parts of the Republican Party. This month, he has made campaign stops in Indiana and Ohio, seeking to chip away at Trump’s base of support and rally Democrats.
Former contenders who have now backed Harris:
California Governor Gavin Newsom: After a few hours of silence that sparked speculation over his ambitions, the 56-year-old endorsed Harris on Sunday.
“With our democracy at stake and our future on the line, no one is better to prosecute the case against Donald Trump’s dark vision and guide our country in a healthier direction than America’s Vice President, Kamala Harris,” he said in an X post. While Newsom had been unwavering in his support of Biden previously, political observers noted that he appeared to be teeing up his own future presidential bid.
Last year, for instance, Newsom travelled overseas to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. Then, as the Republican presidential primary race started to heat up, he appeared on Fox News to debate with one of the candidates, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
The two-term leader of a solidly blue state, Newsom nevertheless faced a recall effort in 2021 that sought to yank him from California’s governor’s mansion. Proponents of the recall blasted Newsom for high taxes in the state and what they considered a lax attitude towards immigration. Still, Newsom handily defeated the effort, with more than 61 percent of voters rejecting the recall.
The California governor – and former mayor of San Francisco – nevertheless faces consistent criticism for his handling of the state’s homelessness crisis and widening inequality, as the cost of living rises.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: In 2022, when Josh Shapiro first ran for the governor’s mansion in the Rust Belt state of Pennsylvania, he received more than three million votes – setting a state record. Even Biden only earned 2.8 million votes in Pennsylvania during the last presidential election, though it was still enough for him to carry the state. On Sunday, Shapiro set aside any presidential dreams he might have — for now — to offer a ringing endorsement of Harris.
“The contrast in this race could not be clearer and the road to victory in November runs right through Pennsylvania – where this collective work began,” he said on X. “I will do everything I can to help elect Kamala Harris as the 47th President of the United States.”
Pennsylvania is a crucial battleground for the Democrats: Like Michigan, it can tilt right or left. And Pennsylvania, the fifth largest state by population, has a whopping 19 Electoral College votes up for grabs.
Prior to winning the governorship, Shapiro served six years as the state’s attorney general, where he tackled gun violence and the opioid crisis, as well as government corruption.
Still, since taking office as governor, Shapiro has raised eyebrows – particularly among progressive Democrats – for denouncing pro-Palestinian student protesters on college campuses. With a nod to his Jewish faith, Shapiro told the publication Politico in April: “I do feel a somewhat unique responsibility to speak out when I see this level of anti-Semitism on our campuses and in our communities.”
Analysis
African Leaders in Beijing Seek Investment Amid Growing Great Power Competition
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As African leaders convene in Beijing, the focus is on securing funds for major infrastructure projects, but economic challenges and geopolitical tensions complicate the landscape.
This week, Beijing is hosting a major forum with African leaders as they aim to secure substantial loans and investments for critical infrastructure projects. The China-Africa forum, touted as China’s largest diplomatic event since the COVID-19 pandemic, will see prominent figures from South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and other nations seeking to bolster ties with the world’s No. 2 economy.
China’s engagement with Africa has expanded significantly over the past decade, with billions in loans fueling infrastructure projects across the continent. These projects, which include railways, ports, and hydroelectric plants, are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a central element of President Xi Jinping’s strategy to extend China’s global influence.
While China remains Africa’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $167.8 billion in the first half of 2024, there are signs that the economic landscape is shifting. Analysts highlight that China’s economic slowdown has made Beijing more cautious about extending large loans. This caution is compounded by Beijing’s reluctance to offer debt relief, even as some African nations struggle with significant debt burdens that have forced them to cut spending on essential services.
According to research from the Chinese Loans to Africa Database, China’s lending to African nations last year was the highest in five years, with Angola, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nigeria, and Kenya being the top borrowers. However, the “old model” of rapid industrialization through large loans is increasingly viewed as unsustainable amid changing global conditions, including the lingering effects of COVID-19 and rising geopolitical tensions.
One prominent example of the challenges facing African nations is Kenya’s $5 billion railway project funded by China’s Exim Bank, which was intended to connect Nairobi with Mombasa. A proposed extension to Uganda never materialized due to debt repayment issues, leaving Kenya with over $8 billion owed to China. Recent protests in Kenya have been partly driven by the government’s struggle to manage its debt burden.
African leaders at this week’s forum are expected to advocate not only for new investments but also for more favorable loan terms to address such debt-related challenges. The conversation is likely to focus on how to balance the benefits of Chinese investment with the risks of accumulating unsustainable debt.
In addition to infrastructure, African nations are crucial in the global race for rare minerals, with significant deposits of manganese, cobalt, nickel, and lithium essential for renewable energy technologies. Central Africa, particularly the Democratic Republic of Congo, dominates cobalt mining, while South Africa leads in manganese production. China’s dominance in processing these minerals further intensifies the competition for these resources.
The geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China is also impacting Africa. Washington has expressed concerns about Beijing’s influence, accusing China of pursuing its commercial and geopolitical interests at the expense of transparency. Despite China’s insistence on “win-win” cooperation, analysts worry that African countries might face pressure to align with one of the great powers.
The lack of leverage among African nations in negotiating with major powers like China and the U.S. poses a significant challenge. As Ovigwe Eguegu of Development Reimagined notes, the idea of balancing U.S. influence against China’s is not a feasible strategy for many African countries.
The outcomes of this week’s forum will be closely watched for signs of how Africa will navigate its partnerships with global powers amidst ongoing economic and geopolitical shifts.
Analysis
Tensions Escalate: Somalia’s New Directives on Somaliland Waters
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In a significant escalation of maritime tensions, Somalia has announced new directives targeting vessels using Somaliland’s waters. This move appears to be part of a broader strategy to assert control over the territory that has operated independently since 1991, a move that may further complicate relations with both Somaliland and neighboring Ethiopia.
New Directives and their Implications
According to a statement from Somalia’s government, all ships entering Somali waters must now display the Somali flag. This directive will inevitably increase friction between the federal government of Somalia and Somaliland, which has long declared its sovereignty and independence. Somaliland operates its own governance system and considers itself distinct from Somalia, a fact the Somali government seems unwilling to acknowledge.
The directives imply greater monitoring and control of Somaliland’s waters. Furthermore, authorities in Mogadishu view this policy as a crucial step towards implementing sanctions against Somaliland and enhancing national security compliance under Somali law. This move has sparked widespread concern in Somaliland, prompting a strong response from its president, Muse Bihi Abdi, who rejected the claims of authority made by the Somali government.
The ongoing tension stems from a series of historical grievances and power struggles. Since declaring independence from Somalia in 1991, Somaliland has been working to establish itself as a stable and democratic state in stark contrast to the instability that has plagued Somalia. Somaliland’s leadership perceives Somalia’s actions as an infringement on its sovereignty and an attempt to undermine its achievements in governance and security.
President Bihi’s recent remarks highlight the sentiment in Somaliland, emphasizing that the government will not entertain what he termed “empty threats” from Mogadishu. He signaled Somaliland’s readiness to confront any challenges posed by Somalia, subtly pointing to the historical failures of the Somali central government in maintaining security, even in its capital, Mogadishu.
Complicating matters further is Somalia’s recent agreement with Turkey to bolster its maritime security over the next decade. This partnership aims to enhance Somalia’s control over its coastal waters but raises concerns in Somaliland regarding the legitimacy of foreign intervention in what they regard as their maritime domain.
Somaliland’s foreign minister, Dr. Isse Kayd, has voiced strong opposition to these developments, underscoring the republic’s commitment to its sovereignty amid Somalia’s internal turmoil and the persistent threat posed by groups like Al-Shabaab. He asserts that Somaliland stands as a model of stability and democratic governance, warranting respect and recognition from both regional partners and the international community.
The Ethiopian Connection
The impact of these maritime directives extends beyond Somaliland and Somalia, particularly concerning Ethiopia. Ethiopia, a landlocked nation of over 110 million, regards access to the sea as vital for its economic development and has engaged in an MOU with Somaliland to gain access to its waters. This agreement has become a point of contention for Somalia, which seeks to undermine such accords and reassert its claims over maritime territories.
Ethiopian Foreign Minister Taye Atskeselassie has reiterated the significance of the sea access issue, highlighting that Ethiopia’s growth relies heavily on maritime routes. The interplay between these three regions—Somalia, Somaliland, and Ethiopia—reflects a complex web of interests, sovereignty claims, and regional stability.
The recent directives by Somalia signify a dramatic pivot in the longstanding tensions between the federal government and Somaliland. As maritime claims and national security concerns unfold, both nations must navigate a complicated landscape marked by historical grievances, international alliances, and regional stability. Without constructive dialogue and mutual recognition, the risks of escalation remain high, potentially strifling prospects for peace and cooperation in the Horn of Africa.
Engagement from international stakeholders and regional players will be crucial in facilitating a pathway toward resolution that honors Somaliland’s aspirations for self-determination while addressing Somalia’s concerns of national sovereignty and security.
Analysis
Biden-Xi Meeting in the Works Amid South China Sea Disputes
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High-Stakes Diplomatic Talks Unveil Deepening Divides and Potential Resolutions
The latest diplomatic maneuver is nothing short of a high-stakes chess game. On Wednesday, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi engaged in a second round of intense discussions in Beijing, casting a spotlight on the fraught state of bilateral relations.
The meetings, characterized by both sides as “candid” and “constructive,” have ignited speculation about a possible summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s Xi Jinping. According to a White House statement, the discussions included plans for a leader-level call in the near future. Xinhua, China’s state-run news agency, revealed that the conversation also delved into the possibility of an in-person meeting between the two heads of state—a diplomatic move that could either thaw or intensify the icy relations between the two global giants.
The conversations did not shy away from contentious issues. Sullivan and Wang broached the subject of military-to-military communications, emphasizing the need for video calls between their respective military theater commanders. Wang underscored the importance of treating each other with equality, a sentiment that underscores the deeply rooted tensions between Washington and Beijing.
A significant portion of the dialogue was dedicated to the South China Sea, where China’s aggressive maritime actions have recently escalated. Wang issued a stark warning to Washington, advising against using its bilateral treaties with the Philippines as leverage against China’s territorial claims. “The United States must not use bilateral treaties as an excuse to undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Wang said, as reported by Chinese state broadcaster CCTV.
Sullivan countered with concerns over China’s destabilizing activities, particularly in relation to Philippine maritime operations. Recent clashes between Chinese vessels and Philippine ships have heightened U.S. anxiety, prompting Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, to suggest that the U.S. military might consider escorting Philippine ships in contested waters.
The discussions also touched upon Taiwan, a flashpoint in U.S.-China relations. Wang reiterated China’s stance that Taiwan, a democratically governed island, is an inalienable part of its territory and condemned U.S. arms sales to the region. “Taiwan belongs to China,” Wang asserted, further stating that “Taiwan’s independence is the biggest risk to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”
While Beijing demanded an end to U.S. arms sales and tariffs, Sullivan remained firm on protecting American national interests. He criticized China’s trade practices and emphasized that the U.S. will continue to take necessary actions to safeguard its technological advancements from potential misuse, without excessively restricting trade or investment.
As the talks extended into Thursday, the agenda promised further exploration of contentious issues, including trade disputes, Middle Eastern affairs, the Ukraine crisis, and the illicit production of fentanyl components.
The high-profile discussions serve as a stark reminder of the geopolitical tightrope both nations are walking. With global stability hanging in the balance, the outcomes of these talks could either pave the way for a diplomatic breakthrough or set the stage for further confrontation. The world watches closely as the U.S. and China navigate these perilous waters.
Analysis
Somali-American Vlogger’s Taliban Selfies Spark Fury: Is She Glamourizing Oppression?
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Marian Abdi’s Controversial Photos with Taliban Fighters Ignite Outrage—Is She an Innocent Traveler or a Reckless Provocateur?
In a world where influencers shape perceptions as much as politicians, Somali-American travel vlogger Marian Abdi, known online as ‘Geenyada Madow,’ has stirred up a storm with her latest escapade. Her seemingly innocuous trip to Afghanistan has morphed into a scandal, drawing sharp rebukes from critics who accuse her of glamorizing one of the most repressive regimes of our time.
Abdi, who has built a following through her vibrant travel content, described her visit to Afghanistan as a “dream come true.” But the dream quickly turned into a nightmare for many when she posted photos of herself grinning alongside armed Taliban fighters. The images, which show her posing with men holding AK-47s, have ignited a firestorm of outrage.
Social media erupted in condemnation. Critics argued that Abdi’s smiling snapshots trivialize the brutal reality faced by millions of Afghans under Taliban rule. “Do not promote a terrorist group that has banned education and all fundamental rights of women,” blasted one outraged user on Twitter. Another added, “The same men you stand by smiling restrict their women from doing exactly what you’re doing—travelling, blogging, being educated, working!”
Defending her controversial choice, Abdi claimed that her intention was purely to explore and document her experiences in Afghanistan, not to endorse the Taliban. “I’m genuinely curious—what do you want me to do? Should I avoid visiting Afghanistan altogether?” she asked, challenging her critics. “How do you expect a tourist to navigate politics with the Taliban? Even if I didn’t take a photo with them, would that change anything?”
Abdi’s defense included a perplexing question: why is she being singled out when other travel vloggers have ventured into Afghanistan without similar backlash? “Yes, a lot is happening, but is that my fault?” she wondered aloud. “Other YouTubers have created content there, so why am I treated differently? And why bring race into this?”
Her critics, including Niloofar Naeimi, a prominent advocate for Afghan women’s rights, were unmoved by Abdi’s explanations. Naeimi condemned Abdi’s actions as “deeply troubling and unacceptable,” arguing that the vlogger’s posts ignore the grave oppression faced by Afghan women under Taliban control.
In response to mounting criticism, Abdi took to YouTube, insisting that her aim was to document rather than endorse. “I received nothing but respect. I don’t agree with everything they do, but I didn’t see any issue being there,” she said. She also recounted her inquiries to the Taliban about their policies on girls’ education, noting that their responses were evasive, with one fighter claiming, “everything takes time.”
Despite the uproar, Abdi’s supporters, predominantly Somali netizens, have rallied to her defense. “Keep going, sis! I love your travel vlog!” cheered one follower. Another praised her unique perspectives, urging her to continue despite the backlash.
As Abdi continues her journey through Afghanistan, recently arriving in Kandahar, the controversy shows no sign of dying down. Is she an adventurous traveler documenting a complex reality, or has she crossed an ethical line by mingling with a regime notorious for its human rights abuses?
The debate rages on, leaving a trail of questions about the responsibilities of influencers in conflict zones and the consequences of their actions.
Analysis
Trump’s Personal Attacks: Strategic Tool or Electoral Liability?
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As Trump Faces Kamala Harris, His Tactics of Insults and Provocations Are Both a Key Strategy and a Potential Risk
Donald Trump’s campaign strategy for the 2024 presidential race remains heavily rooted in his trademark approach of personal attacks and provocations. Despite his significant controversies—including criminal convictions and two impeachments—Trump continues to use insults and incendiary rhetoric as core elements of his political identity. As he gears up for a crucial series of rallies and policy speeches in battleground states, his campaign is grappling with how to balance this aggressive style with the need to appeal to a broader electorate.
This week, Trump will focus on key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—states critical to winning the November election. His campaign’s new approach involves a mix of policy discussions and intensified public appearances, aiming to counteract Kamala Harris’s rising profile and the momentum from the recent Democratic National Convention. This adjustment is part of a broader strategy to reassert his position in the race against Harris, who has launched a disciplined and optimistic campaign that contrasts sharply with Trump’s divisive style.
Some of Trump’s Republican allies, including Sen. Lindsey Graham, have urged him to pivot to a more issue-focused campaign. Graham argued on “State of the Union” that Trump’s approach should highlight the challenges faced by Americans, such as rising costs and economic struggles, rather than relying on personal attacks. This perspective underscores the internal conflict within the GOP: Trump’s base-driven tactics are seen as essential for energizing his supporters, yet they also risk alienating swing voters crucial for a general election victory.
Trump’s reliance on personal attacks has historically been a double-edged sword. While it played a key role in his 2016 victory by energizing his base and disrupting conventional politics, it also contributed to his presidency’s controversies and eventual defeat in 2020. His handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent political fallout further complicated his reputation. Despite understanding the need for a disciplined message, Trump often reverts to his familiar rhetoric, as evidenced by his recent rally in Arizona where he continued to lash out at his opponents.
Kamala Harris’s campaign, in contrast, emphasizes a message of optimism and progress. Harris’s strategy, highlighted during the Democratic National Convention, focuses on offering a hopeful vision for the future and presenting a stark contrast to Trump’s divisive tactics. Her campaign aims to appeal to voters’ desire for stability and positive change after years of political turbulence and economic uncertainty. Harris’s effective message and disciplined approach have gained traction, posing a significant challenge to Trump’s approach.
The upcoming debate between Trump and Harris on September 10 is expected to be a pivotal moment in the campaign. Harris’s ability to maintain her positive messaging while effectively addressing Trump’s attacks will be crucial. At the same time, Trump must decide whether to continue his confrontational style or adapt to the shifting dynamics of the race.
The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be a high-stakes contest where Trump’s established tactics of personal attacks are tested against Harris’s optimistic vision. The coming weeks will reveal whether Trump’s approach will sustain his electoral viability or whether his divisive style will prove to be a liability in a rapidly changing political landscape. The outcome will likely hinge on how well Trump can balance his provocative tactics with the need to appeal to a broader and more diverse electorate.
Analysis
Why Sexism Still Threatens Kamala Harris’ Path to the White House
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Despite Enthusiastic Support, Gender Bias Looms Large in Harris’ Presidential Bid
As the political landscape shifts dramatically with President Joe Biden’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee, the possibility of the United States electing its first female president becomes tantalizingly real. Harris, alongside her running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, has sparked unprecedented enthusiasm, drawing tens of thousands to rallies across crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Yet, beneath this wave of support lies a persistent and troubling undercurrent: sexism.
Recent polling conducted after Harris’ nomination reveals a complex picture of American attitudes towards gender and leadership. On the surface, a majority of Americans—51%—affirm that “America is ready for its first African American female president.” Only 23% disagree. This indicates a significant level of acceptance and readiness for a historic change in the Oval Office.
However, the enthusiasm for Harris masks a troubling reality. Despite the progressive rhetoric, sexism remains a powerful and often subtle force in American politics. This is starkly evident in the rhetoric used by some of Harris’ opponents. Former President Donald Trump, notorious for his sexist comments, has disparaged Harris in deeply troubling ways, including derogatory remarks about her intelligence and appearance. Reports from The Associated Press and The New York Times even suggest Trump has privately used slurs against her, although his spokesperson denies these claims.
The attacks don’t stop there. Trump allies have attempted to exploit Harris’ gender by crudely referencing her past relationships in an effort to undermine her candidacy. Such tactics are a stark reminder that while America may be ready for a female president, the journey to achieving this milestone is fraught with obstacles.
To understand the impact of these biases, Waryatv compared two national polls—one conducted in January 2024, with Biden still as the Democratic nominee, and another in August 2024, after Harris had taken the lead. Both surveys assessed voter preferences and attitudes toward sexism.
In January, when Biden was the Democratic candidate, we found that support for Trump was strongly correlated with hostile sexist attitudes. Those who agreed with statements reflecting gender bias were more likely to support Trump. For example, individuals who exhibited high levels of hostile sexism were significantly more inclined to back Trump over Biden, with about two-thirds of them favoring the former president.
The dynamics shift considerably with Harris as the Democratic nominee. Waryatv August poll reveals that hostile sexism now exerts an even stronger influence on voter preferences. In a direct comparison, 89% of respondents with the least sexist views support Harris, while only 18% of those with the most sexist views back her. This stark contrast highlights how gender bias can skew electoral outcomes.
The implications of these findings are profound. If hostile sexism did not affect attitudes towards female candidates, Harris’ lead over Trump could be more substantial. In reality, sexism is narrowing the gap, making a critical difference in what should be a straightforward contest of policies and vision.
Understanding the impact of these biases is crucial for the Harris campaign. If she can navigate and counteract the prejudices that still pervade American politics, she might not only secure her place in the White House but also pave the way for future generations of women leaders.
As we move closer to the election, the question remains: Can Kamala Harris overcome these entrenched biases to achieve a historic victory? The answer will determine not only her political future but also the broader trajectory of gender equality in American politics.
Analysis
Why Did Japan’s Prime Minister Step Down—Who’s Next in Line?
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Japan’s Political Earthquake: Kishida’s Sudden Exit Sparks Leadership Frenzy
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has unexpectedly declared he will step down as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) next month, cutting his term short and triggering a fierce scramble for his successor. Kishida’s abrupt resignation follows a turbulent tenure marred by scandal and public discontent.
Since ascending to office in October 2021, Kishida’s premiership has been plagued by plummeting approval ratings and a series of political missteps. The assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in July 2022 exposed troubling ties between the LDP and the Korean-based Unification Church. The fallout led to a political fundraising scandal last November that implicated up to 80 LDP Diet members and forced four cabinet ministers to resign. Despite the lack of evidence against Kishida and other senior figures, the scandal has severely tarnished his administration.
In a bid to salvage his reputation, Kishida dismantled his own influential faction and pressured Abe’s former faction to dissolve, but the damage was done. With only a few months remaining before the crucial LDP leadership election in September, Kishida’s political fate was sealed. Public disapproval reached a boiling point, with a staggering 74% of respondents in a late July poll opposing his continued leadership.
Amid the chaos, Kishida’s diplomatic efforts stood in stark contrast to his domestic woes. His recent appearances on the global stage—including NATO’s 75th anniversary summit and a high-profile visit to Germany—were overshadowed by the escalating crisis at home. His planned Central Asia tour was scrapped in the wake of a devastating 7.1 earthquake in Japan, further complicating his already beleaguered position.
Now, as Kishida prepares to bow out, a whirlwind of contenders is positioning themselves for the prime ministerial throne. Shigeru Ishiba, the former defense minister and LDP secretary-general, is leading the charge, buoyed by strong public support and endorsements from Kishida’s predecessor, Yoshihide Suga. LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, who avoided dismantling his faction during the scandal, is also a prominent candidate. Additionally, Digital Minister Taro Kono, known for his previous clash with Kishida, and a slew of potential female candidates like Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi and Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, could reshape Japan’s political landscape if they emerge victorious.
Kishida’s successor will face the daunting task of rejuvenating the LDP’s fortunes before the next national election, set for October 2025. Key challenges include reviving Japan’s sluggish economy, which has suffered under Kishida’s “New Capitalism” policy. Despite a boost in export earnings and tourism, a weak yen and higher import costs have dampened domestic consumption. The Bank of Japan’s recent interest rate hike triggered a historic stock market drop, adding to the economic turbulence.
Moreover, Japan’s security concerns loom large, particularly with the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, which could further strain Japan’s alliances and defense strategies.
As the LDP gears up for a new leader, the party must navigate a complex political terrain. With the opposition in disarray, the new prime minister might seize the opportunity to call a snap election and capitalize on a brief period of political advantage. Yet, gaining the trust of a weary Japanese public, fatigued by continuous political drama, will be no easy feat.
As the leadership race heats up, Japan stands at a crossroads, eagerly awaiting the emergence of a leader who can restore stability and steer the country through its myriad challenges.
Analysis
Russia’s Belgorod Declares State of Emergency as Ukraine Launches Unprecedented Incursion
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A Surprising Assault: Ukraine’s Cross-Border Offensive Shakes Kremlin and Exposes Weaknesses
Russia’s Belgorod region has declared a state of emergency following a sudden and intense bombardment by Ukrainian forces. Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced the emergency measures, citing the dire situation: “Houses are destroyed. Civilians died and were injured,” he said in a video posted to Telegram. The situation is so severe that Gladkov has requested a federal state of emergency, underscoring the gravity of the unfolding crisis.
The escalation began a week ago with a surprise Ukrainian incursion into the Belgorod region, a maneuver that has caught Russia off guard and intensified the already high-stakes conflict. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian forces have gained control over 74 settlements in the neighboring Kursk region, advancing between one to three kilometers in just the past 24 hours. This marks the largest attack on Russian soil since World War II, a development that has left Russian officials scrambling.
In response to Ukraine’s aggressive push, Russian Major General Apti Alaudinov claims that Ukrainian troops have been halted, with attacks on villages 26-28 kilometers from the border repelled. However, the discrepancies in reporting raise questions about the actual extent of the incursion and its impact.
U.S. President Joe Biden has been receiving frequent briefings about the situation, noting that the Ukrainian operation is creating a significant dilemma for Russian President Vladimir Putin. “It’s creating a real dilemma for Putin,” Biden said, reflecting the global concern over the unexpected aggression. Don Jensen, a senior adviser on Russia and Europe at the U.S. Institute of Peace, echoed this sentiment, highlighting Ukraine’s strategic acumen and the Kremlin’s slow, disjointed response.
Despite the apparent chaos in Russia’s border regions, Ukrainian officials have stated they have no intention of holding the captured territory in Kursk long-term. “Unlike Russia, Ukraine does not need other people’s property,” said Georgiy Tykhy, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry. The goal, Tykhy explained, is to protect Ukrainian lives and disrupt Russian military logistics. Zelenskyy also emphasized that the incursion helps alleviate pressure on Ukraine’s eastern front by preventing Russia from reallocating troops to the Donetsk region.
The incursion has already had a substantial impact on the Belgorod region, with more than 120,000 people reportedly fleeing the area. Ukrainian forces have seized significant swaths of land used for launching cross-border strikes against Ukrainian territory. The move has not only exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s defensive posture but also revealed the Kremlin’s complacency and inadequate preparations for such an attack.
“They didn’t protect the border,” said Ruzhyk, a Ukrainian serviceman involved in the offensive. He criticized the Russian defenses as woefully inadequate, with anti-personnel mines scattered haphazardly and insufficient fortifications along key routes.
Military analysts suggest that Russia’s failure to anticipate or adequately counter the incursion highlights broader strategic miscalculations. “Russian complacency prevailed,” Mykola Bielieskov, a Ukrainian military analyst, told AFP. “Russia assumed that since it had the initiative elsewhere, Ukraine wouldn’t dare to do things we’ve seen.” This misjudgment has not only emboldened Ukrainian forces but has also significantly challenged Russia’s strategic assumptions and operational readiness.
As the conflict continues to evolve, the international community watches closely, keenly aware that this latest development could reshape the dynamics of the ongoing war. The surprise incursion into Belgorod stands as a potent reminder of the unpredictable nature of the conflict and the ever-present potential for dramatic shifts on the ground.
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