GRU Officers Advising Iran-Backed Rebels on Red Sea Maritime Attacks

US intelligence suggests that Russian military intelligence officers, specifically from the GRU, have been operating within Houthi-controlled regions of Yemen. Their mission? To aid the Iran-backed Houthis in targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea. This covert operation has been ongoing for several months, a senior US official disclosed under the condition of anonymity.

The precise nature of the GRU’s involvement remains shrouded in secrecy, but their advisory role is clear. The Houthis, claiming solidarity with besieged Palestinians in Gaza, have intensified their attacks on maritime targets, drawing on Russian expertise to bolster their campaign.

This development signals Russia’s deepening ties with the Houthis, a move that could reshape the balance of power in the region. Earlier this year, President Vladimir Putin contemplated arming the Houthis with advanced anti-ship cruise missiles, a plan thwarted only by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s intervention. Yet, concerns linger in Washington that Putin might still use the Houthis as leverage against US policies, especially concerning Ukraine.

Samuel Ramani, a renowned expert on Russia’s Middle Eastern policies, suggests that deploying technical advisors might be Putin’s middle ground, allowing him to deepen cooperation without overtly escalating military support. The move aligns with Russia’s broader strategy of embedding itself in regional conflicts, as seen with its mercenaries in Libya and military presence in Syria.

The timing of this revelation is critical. The Houthis have ramped up missile and drone attacks on commercial vessels since Hamas’ assault on Israel on October 7th. While US retaliatory strikes on the Houthis have been ineffective, the group’s attacks have been selective, sparing ships linked to Russia, Iran, and China. This selective targeting underscores the Houthis’ maritime intelligence limitations and their reliance on open-source data, further highlighting the need for GRU expertise.

Publicly, Russia’s engagement with the Houthis has become more visible. In July, Putin’s deputy foreign minister met with a Houthi delegation in Moscow, signaling a closer alliance. The US anticipates that Iran’s “axis of resistance,” which includes the Houthis, will play a pivotal role in any retaliatory actions against Israel.

Former US officials suggest that Putin might view the escalating Middle East tensions as an opportunity to pressure the US, drawing a parallel between Ukraine’s attacks on Russian vessels in the Black Sea and potential Houthi actions in the Red Sea. General Frank McKenzie, ex-commander of US Central Command, hinted that Putin could see this as a form of “Red Sea payback.”

Despite the mounting evidence, official responses from the White House and the Department of Defense remain absent. The US intelligence community, however, is on high alert, closely monitoring the situation as the geopolitical stakes in the region continue to rise.

Russia’s strategic maneuvering in Yemen is part of a broader pattern. With the Wagner Group’s activities in Libya and the Sahel, and military deployments in Syria, Russia’s footprint in the Middle East is expanding. The potential for a Russian naval base in Sudan’s Red Sea coast only adds to this intricate geopolitical web.

In this complex game of power and influence, Putin’s decision to place GRU officers in Yemen reflects a calculated move to enhance the Houthis’ operational capabilities while safeguarding Russian interests in the Red Sea. As tensions escalate, the world watches closely, bracing for the potential fallout from this clandestine collaboration.

EARF Enhances Rapid Deployment and Security Measures in Kismayo

In a display of military precision and readiness, U.S. soldiers from the East Africa Response Force (EARF) engaged in a multi-day crisis response exercise at Cooperative Security Location (CSL) Kismayo, Somalia, on July 21, 2024. This critical drill aimed to sharpen the unit’s rapid deployment capabilities, security reinforcement protocols, and combat casualty care proficiency.

Part of the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA), the EARF includes personnel from Task Force Paxton of the Pennsylvania Army National Guard, designed for swift crisis response within the AFRICOM area. This recent exercise underscored their ability to provide limited-defense crisis response and essential support to U.S. embassies and missions across the region.

The exercise’s primary goal was to test the EARF’s speed in deploying and reinforcing security measures to protect military personnel effectively. Additionally, combat casualty care training was incorporated to ensure readiness for real-world scenarios that may arise in this volatile region.

Colonel James Riley, commander of CJTF-HOA, emphasized the importance of such exercises, stating, “Our ability to quickly deploy and reinforce security measures is crucial for maintaining the safety of our personnel and supporting our allies in the region.”

Echoing this sentiment, Major General William Zana, CJTF-HOA commander, highlighted the broader significance of these operations. “Our operations are vital for regional stability and the protection of U.S. and coalition interests. These exercises demonstrate our commitment to a ‘no-fail’ mission across the area of operation,” Zana said.

The crisis response drill in Kismayo not only showcased the EARF’s rapid deployment prowess but also reinforced the U.S. military’s dedication to maintaining security and stability in East Africa. This exercise is a testament to the unwavering commitment to protecting both U.S. interests and regional allies, ensuring readiness in the face of any potential crisis.

New Pentagon Strategy Enhances Surveillance and Cooperation with Allies Amid Climate Change Concerns

The Pentagon’s 2024 Arctic Strategy aims to bolster US intelligence and enhance collaboration with allies to thwart Russian and Chinese ambitions in the region. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks emphasized that the melting Arctic ice, a consequence of climate change, is turning strategic concerns into immediate tactical challenges.

The strategy includes expanding ground-based, space-based, and long-range radar sensors to monitor adversarial activities, while boosting unmanned aerial reconnaissance and communication capabilities.

The US has already invested millions in Arctic infrastructure, but the region’s vast distances and harsh conditions require more resources. The strategy underscores the significance of NATO’s expansion with Sweden and Finland joining the alliance, enhancing joint exercises and cooperation to counter increased Russian and Chinese activities.

Hicks highlighted ongoing Russian infrastructure investments in the Arctic and growing Chinese activities, often under the guise of research. This has led to increased Russian-Chinese cooperation, demonstrated by joint naval patrols near Alaska last August. Despite being somewhat superficial, the Pentagon anticipates their military relationship will evolve.

Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Arctic, Iris Ferguson, pointed to China’s investments in Russian energy as bolstering Russia’s actions in Ukraine. She noted China’s attempts to internationalize and influence the Arctic region, marking them as a long-term pacing challenge for the US.

The evolving dynamics and strategic importance of the Arctic necessitate robust US responses to maintain regional stability and counter adversarial moves. The Russian and Chinese embassies in Washington have not commented on the new strategy.

US Intelligence Highlights Growing Concerns Over Space-Based Weapons and Strategic Alliances

The United States is sounding the alarm over the growing threat posed by Russia and China in space, warning that both nations are moving closer to deploying space-based weapons. U.S. military and intelligence agencies emphasize that these developments could significantly impact America’s defense capabilities.

Lieutenant General Jeff Kruse, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, underscored the gravity of the situation at the Aspen Security Forum, stating, “Both Russia and China view the use of space early on, even ahead of conflict, as important capabilities to deter or to compel behaviors. We just need to be ready.”

The urgency of these concerns was amplified earlier this year when House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner called for the declassification of information related to a new Russian anti-satellite capability involving nuclear weapons. While the White House has acknowledged awareness of Russia’s plans, it maintains that Moscow has not yet deployed such a capability.

Kruse confirmed that the U.S. has been monitoring Russia’s intent to place nuclear weapons in space for nearly a decade. “They have progressed down to a point where we think they’re getting close,” he said, warning that Russia is unlikely to decelerate without significant repercussions.

Despite repeated denials from Russian and Chinese officials, U.S. concerns persist. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov dismissed U.S. allegations as “fake news,” while a Chinese Embassy spokesperson in Washington accused the U.S. of using the space threat narrative to justify its own military expansion.

However, Kruse pointed to China’s rapid expansion in space as equally troubling. “China is the one country that more so even than the United States has a space doctrine, a space strategy, and they train and exercise the use of space and counterspace capabilities in a way that we just don’t see elsewhere,” he said.

General Stephen Whiting of U.S. Space Command echoed these concerns, describing China’s strategic buildup as a “kill web” in space. “In the last six years, they’ve tripled the number of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance satellites they have on orbit,” Whiting said, highlighting the threat to U.S. and allied forces in the Indo-Pacific region.

The lack of military communication with China about space operations adds another layer of risk, according to Whiting. “We want to have a way to talk to them about space safety as they put more satellites on orbit,” he said, to prevent miscommunication and unintended actions.

As Russia and China continue to advance their space capabilities, the U.S. must navigate these emerging threats to maintain its strategic advantage and ensure global security.

U.S. Enhances Ukraine’s Defense Capabilities Amid Escalating Conflict, Avoids Provoking Wider War with Long-Range Strikes

In a crucial pivot to bolster Ukraine’s defense, the United States has ramped up support with additional Patriot air defense systems and F-16 fighter jets. Yet, despite Ukrainian appeals for greater flexibility to strike deeper into Russian territory, the U.S. remains firm on its current policy, avoiding actions that could escalate the conflict into a broader war.

In a revealing interview with Voice of America, Pentagon Press Secretary Major General Pat Ryder elaborated on these critical decisions, shedding light on the intricacies of U.S. support for Ukraine amid the ongoing conflict with Russia.

President Biden recently announced the deployment of additional Patriot batteries to Ukraine, a move underscoring the high priority placed on enhancing Ukraine’s air defense. When pressed about the timeline for delivery, Ryder emphasized operational security but assured that efforts to expedite these systems are underway. The urgency is palpable, especially after recent Russian missile strikes, including a devastating attack on a children’s hospital in Kyiv.

Ryder acknowledged that the Patriot systems would require Ukrainian soldiers to undergo extensive training to ensure their effective deployment. “Air defense for Ukraine has been a priority for Secretary Austin and the U.S. government for a while now,” Ryder stated, highlighting the continuous efforts to equip Ukraine against relentless Russian missile assaults.

The arrival of F-16 fighter jets, another significant boost to Ukraine’s defense arsenal, comes with its own set of challenges. These high-tech aircraft will be prime targets for Russian forces. Ryder detailed how the U.S., alongside Denmark and the Netherlands, is leading efforts to train Ukrainian pilots and maintainers on the complex systems. This comprehensive training is crucial for ensuring the jets’ operational readiness and survivability in a hostile environment.

Despite these advancements, the U.S. maintains a cautious stance on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons, particularly the ATACMS missiles. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly called for lifting restrictions on these weapons to strike deeper into Russian territory. However, Ryder reiterated that the U.S. policy remains unchanged, driven by concerns over potential escalation. “We don’t want to see unintended consequences and escalation to make this a broader conflict,” Ryder explained, emphasizing the delicate balance of providing robust support while avoiding actions that could widen the war.

The Pentagon’s strategy includes recent permissions allowing Ukraine to strike Russian targets just across the border, a move aimed at defending regions like Kharkiv from immediate threats. Yet, Ryder pointed out the importance of considering the broader implications of deeper strikes inside Russia. “You have to look at the second and third-order effects in terms of potential escalation,” he noted, underscoring the careful calculus behind U.S. military support.

In addition to enhancing Ukraine’s immediate defense capabilities, long-term support plans are also taking shape. NATO’s announcement of a new command center in Wiesbaden, Germany, is a significant step toward coordinated and sustained assistance for Ukraine. This three-star command center will focus on training and security assistance, aligning efforts with the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to ensure seamless support.

As Ukraine aspires to join NATO, this initiative will play a pivotal role in building interoperability and strengthening Ukraine’s military capabilities. “This will be complementary to and supportive of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group,” Ryder explained, highlighting the strategic importance of this command center in preparing Ukraine for future NATO membership.

The U.S. continues to walk a tightrope, providing substantial support to Ukraine while meticulously avoiding actions that could provoke a wider war. As the conflict evolves, the Pentagon remains steadfast in its commitment to helping Ukraine defend its sovereignty without crossing lines that could trigger dangerous escalations. This careful balancing act is crucial as the world watches the unfolding drama in Eastern Europe.

In the shadow of a brutal missile attack on Ukraine, NATO leaders convened in Washington, reaffirming their support for Ukraine amid ongoing Russian aggression. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze, in a candid interview, stressed the importance of Western unity and unwavering support for Ukraine.

Reflecting on Latvia’s 20 years in NATO, Braze highlighted the importance of deterrence and defense, noting that while there is no immediate military threat to the Baltics, a victory for Ukraine is crucial in preventing further Russian aggression. She emphasized the need for a robust policy to contain and degrade Russia’s military capabilities, underscoring that NATO’s strength lies in its collective security and proactive measures.

The recent missile strikes, including the devastating attack on Kyiv’s Okhmatdyt children’s hospital, underscore the barbarity of the Kremlin. Braze called for increased air defenses and the lifting of restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to strike legitimate military targets within Russia. She reiterated that such attacks only reinforce the need for comprehensive support to Ukraine, including advanced military capabilities like long-range precision strikes.

As the summit discussed Ukraine’s path to NATO membership, Braze emphasized that winning the war is the crucial first step. Victory for Ukraine, defined by its sovereignty and independence, is the ultimate goal. This commitment to Ukrainian victory is shared by all NATO allies, who are united in providing the necessary military aid and support.

Braze acknowledged the challenges faced by Ukraine, noting the resilience and success of Ukrainian forces in defending their territory against a nuclear-armed neighbor. The ongoing war, now in its third year, has defied Russia’s expectations of a quick victory. The unwavering support from the West has been pivotal, and Braze assured that this support will not waver.

Putin is counting on the West to grow weary, but Braze made it clear that this is not going to happen. The determination to support Ukraine remains steadfast, with a clear understanding that Ukraine’s fight is a fight for the principles and security of the entire transatlantic alliance. The predictability and sustainability of this support are crucial in ensuring that Ukraine can continue its defense and ultimately achieve victory.

In conclusion, the NATO summit highlighted the critical role of Western unity in confronting Russian aggression. Latvia’s Foreign Minister Baiba Braze’s insights underscore the necessity of continued, unwavering support for Ukraine. As NATO reinforces its commitments, the message is clear: the transatlantic alliance stands firm, and Putin’s hopes for Western fatigue are in vain.

Ukraine Strikes Back: Six Russian Regions Attacked

NATO Declares Ukraine’s Path to Membership ‘Irreversible’

Taiwan’s defense ministry reported a staggering 66 Chinese military aircraft encircling the island within a 24-hour window—the highest number recorded this year. This provocative move followed closely on the heels of Beijing’s naval exercises in nearby waters, showcasing a bold display of military prowess that has alarmed observers around the world.

China, which steadfastly claims Taiwan as part of its territory, has never renounced the use of force to achieve reunification. The latest sortie comes amid a backdrop of increasing political friction and military posturing. Just a day earlier, Taipei had detected Chinese aircraft moving toward the western Pacific for drills with the PLA aircraft carrier Shandong, a clear signal of Beijing’s strategic ambitions.

According to Taiwan’s defense ministry, the detected aircraft, along with seven PLAN vessels, were operational until 6 am on Thursday. Of the 66 aircraft, 56 breached the sensitive median line in the Taiwan Strait, a narrow waterway that serves as a buffer zone between the island and mainland China. This blatant violation underscores the intensifying pressure Beijing is exerting on Taipei.

Military experts suggest that this show of force is a direct response to recent political developments, including a meeting between Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te and Washington’s new de facto ambassador to Taiwan. “Beijing is flexing its military muscles to express displeasure at the support Taiwan receives,” noted Su Tzu-yun from Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research.

The current record sortie surpasses a previous peak in May when China dispatched 62 military aircraft and 27 naval vessels around Taiwan during military exercises following Lai Ching-te’s inauguration. Beijing labels Lai a “dangerous separatist,” and his administration’s ties with the United States have further strained cross-strait relations.

In an interesting twist, Taiwan’s defense minister Wellington Koo observed that the Shandong carrier had not traversed the usual Bashi Channel, but had instead navigated further south via the Balingtang Channel toward the Western Pacific, a move likely intended to complicate tracking efforts. This maneuver was corroborated by Japan, which confirmed that the Shandong, accompanied by three other PLA navy vessels, was located southeast of Miyako Island, with fighter aircraft and helicopters observed taking off and landing on the carrier.

The Philippines also noted a China-Russia exercise in the Philippine Sea, heightening regional military tensions further. This comes amidst a series of confrontations over the disputed South China Sea, an area fraught with overlapping territorial claims and strategic significance.

As China continues its aggressive posturing, the stakes in the Taiwan Strait grow ever higher. The international community watches closely, aware that any miscalculation could lead to a broader conflict. Taiwan, undeterred, remains vigilant, prepared to respond to any threat to its sovereignty. The geopolitical chess game in the Asia-Pacific region has entered a perilous new phase, with the next move uncertain but undoubtedly consequential.

The United States is set to complete its withdrawal of forces and equipment from an air base in Niamey, the capital of Niger, by Sunday, marking the occasion with a joint ceremony. The next phase involves the exit from a Niger drone base, scheduled for completion in August.

These departures comply with a September 15 deadline agreed upon by the U.S. and Niger’s ruling junta. The new military leaders of Niger ordered U.S. troops to leave following a coup in Niamey last year. Major General Kenneth Ekman, who is coordinating the exits, indicated that most U.S. forces will be relocated to European locations, though small teams have been moved to other West African countries.

Despite withdrawing some valuable equipment from the bases, the U.S. is not destroying the equipment and facilities left behind. Ekman emphasized the importance of leaving things in good condition, saying, “Our goal in the execution is, leave things in as good a state as possible. If we went out and left it a wreck, or if we went out spitefully, or if we destroyed things as we went, we’d be foreclosing options that both nations need for the future. And our security objectives are still entwined.”

The withdrawals, particularly from the drone base, represent a significant setback to U.S. counterterrorism missions in the Sahel. This vast African region is plagued by insurgents linked to al-Qaida and Islamic State groups. Ekman, who is the director of strategy at U.S. Africa Command, noted that other African countries concerned about Sahel-based insurgent threats have approached the U.S. for partnership in combating militants.

“Niger was immensely helpful for us as a location because it was in the Sahel and it was adjacent to those areas where the threat is most concentrated,” Ekman explained. The challenge now will be accessing the area from outside Niger, complicating U.S. counterterrorism efforts.

As the U.S. adjusts its strategy in West Africa, the focus will be on maintaining regional security and countering extremist threats despite the logistical hurdles posed by the withdrawal from Niger.