The Islamic State’s Growing Influence Challenges Regional Security and Economic Stability

Northern Somalia, with its rugged terrain and strategic coastal positions, is witnessing a troubling resurgence of the Islamic State affiliate, IS-Somalia. The group’s growing influence poses a significant threat to the region’s fragile stability, particularly in Puntland and the Bari region.

Rising Influence and Territorial Gains

IS-Somalia has gained prominence by successfully pushing al-Qaida affiliate al-Shabaab out of key strongholds, such as the Buuraha Cali Miskat mountain range in Puntland. The group’s expansion into the port city of Bosaso and remote areas in the Qandala district underscores its growing foothold.

The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reported that IS-Somalia’s presence in Qandala, home to the Ali Saleban subclan of the Majeerten clan, where IS-Somalia leader Abdulqadir Mumin is from, facilitates recruitment and control. Mumin’s survival of a targeted airstrike on May 31 and his rising status within the Islamic State reflect his increasing significance in the global network.

IS-Somalia’s resurgence aligns with the Islamic State’s broader expansion strategy across Africa. The al-Karrar office, responsible for operations in Somalia, Central Africa, and Yemen, plays a critical role in coordinating the group’s activities, including the supply of fighters, resources, and financial support.

Colin Clarke of The Soufan Group describes IS-Somalia as a crucial component of the Islamic State’s global logistics network, contributing to its ability to orchestrate violence and instability.

IS-Somalia has intensified its control through extortion, demanding monthly payments from businesses, which it uses to finance its operations. This has led to the closure of several large businesses and the National Hospital in Bosaso, affecting local economies and services.

Abdikhaliq Awil, a security specialist, reported that the group’s demands have forced many businesses to either shut down or pay extortion fees, impacting the economic stability of Bosaso.

The resurgence of IS-Somalia compounds the existing security challenges in Somalia. Interclan violence has surged, particularly in Mudug region of Galmudug state, with disputes over resources and clan rivalries fueling the conflict. ACLED recorded a significant increase in armed clashes in June, further destabilizing the region.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has attributed the interclan violence to the disruptive tactics of both al-Shabaab and IS-Somalia, aiming to undermine counterterrorism efforts and sow discord among local communities.

The resurgence of IS-Somalia and ongoing conflicts with al-Shabaab and local clans represent severe challenges to Somalia’s stability and development. Addressing these threats requires coordinated regional and international efforts to combat extremism, strengthen security, and promote economic resilience in the affected areas.

Suspected Boko Haram Militants Launch Deadly Raid, Highlighting Ongoing Crisis in Northeast Nigeria

In a horrifying display of violence, at least 81 people have been killed in Nigeria’s northeastern Yobe State following a brutal attack by suspected Boko Haram militants. Local officials reported the gruesome details of the assault, which has left many missing and a community in shambles.

The attack, which took place on Sunday afternoon, involved approximately 150 militants armed with rifles and rocket-propelled grenades. According to Abdulkarim Dungus, a spokesperson for the Yobe State Police, the attackers arrived on over 50 motorcycles and targeted Mafa ward around 4 p.m. They engaged in a rampage of violence, killing many, setting fire to numerous shops and houses, and leaving the community devastated.

The violence appears to be a retaliatory strike, sparked by the recent killing of two Boko Haram members by local vigilantes, Dungus noted. Bulama Jalaluddeen, a local official, confirmed that at least 81 people lost their lives in the attack. By the time soldiers arrived for the evacuation of bodies, many of the deceased had already been buried by their families, and additional victims from nearby villages had been buried by their relatives as well. The number of missing persons remains uncertain.

This latest attack highlights the ongoing crisis in northeastern Nigeria, a region that has been plagued by insurgency for over 15 years. Boko Haram, along with other extremist groups, has been responsible for the deaths of more than 40,000 people since the onset of their violent campaign. The violence has also fueled the growth of criminal gangs, known as “bandits,” who terrorize central and northwestern Nigeria, raiding villages, abducting residents, and committing widespread arson and looting.

The violence in Nigeria’s northeast has created a dire humanitarian situation, with countless lives disrupted and communities left in ruin. The attack in Yobe State serves as a grim reminder of the persistent and escalating threat posed by Boko Haram and its affiliates. As the situation continues to evolve, the urgent need for comprehensive security and humanitarian responses becomes ever more critical.

The United Nations Security Council extended the mandate for the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis) on August 15, 2024, marking 18 years of international efforts to crush the homegrown parasite that is al-Shabaab. Yet, despite the presence of 12,626 troops in an ostensibly noble mission, the reality on the ground tells a different story: al-Shabaab stands strong as ever, thriving amidst chaos. So, why does this militant group remain such a stubborn enigma?

Emerging from the ashes of a disintegrating Somali state in 2006, often cloaked in the mantle of radical sharia law, al-Shabaab has endured unimaginable setbacks, from battlefield defeats to territorial losses. Yet, alongside these defeats, it has forged alliances and adapted in ways that challenge Western counterinsurgency efforts. Indeed, as a member of the al-Qaeda global terrorist network since 2012, al-Shabaab boasts an estimated fighting force of 7,000 to 12,000, making it a formidable adversary within the jihadist realm.

So, what fuels its relentless adaptability?

1. The Flawed Western Doctrine

The West’s approach, centered around a misguided “hearts and minds” strategy, has failed spectacularly. Building democratic institutions in a war zone is akin to constructing sandcastles at high tide: ineffective and short-lived. As a result, civilians are left to navigate a perilous landscape, often coerced into supporting insurgents simply for survival. This has created a vacuum that al-Shabaab exploits, positioning itself as a protector in a chaotic environment.

2. The Taxation Machine

Al-Shabaab operates like a well-oiled revenue collection engine, thriving on illegal taxation, extortion, and criminal enterprises. The failure of government forces to secure areas once thought ‘liberated’ has allowed the group to maintain control even in territories patrolled by African Union forces. While the Somali government has made strides in countering this revenue stream, such as cracking down on electronic payments, it fails to grasp a crucial point: in a state of lawlessness, desperate citizens willingly fund their oppressors for a semblance of security.

3. The Protector Paradox

Ironically, al-Shabaab’s brutal interpretation of sharia law also contributes to its stronghold. By presenting itself as a stabilizing force—albeit a harsh one—it cultivates an image of predictability and order. The group’s court system, though draconian, delivers results in a landscape largely abandoned by the state, endearing it to a population in desperate need of structure.

4. Clan Rivalries: A Double-Edged Sword

In Somalia, clans are not just social constructs; they dictate every facet of life, including allegiances to al-Shabaab. The group’s strategic courting of clan leaders fortifies its position while undermining government attempts at cohesive governance. Yet, as government forces attempt to rally clan support against al-Shabaab, internal rivalries only serve to splinter these efforts, driving some clans into the arms of the very group they are meant to fight.

5. Somali Army: A House of Cards

While there’s a glimmer of hope with the emergence of a more structured Somali army, the reality is sobering. With approximately 19,000 troops, including mobile forces trained by Western allies, the army is hamstrung by internal corruption, clan-based recruitment, and a lack of logistical capacity. This undermines their ability to launch simultaneous offensives—raising serious skepticism about their capacity to assert control and protect federal states against al-Shabaab.

6. Safe Havens: The Fortress of Al-Shabaab

Crucially, the strongholds in the lower and middle Juba regions remain untouched by the current military offensives. With a decade and a half of established governance, these territories have transformed into sanctuaries for al-Shabaab, enabling the group to regroup, train new recruits, and strategize—essentially, a breeding ground for jihadist ideology and operations.

What Lies Ahead?

The apparent stalemate in Somalia’s fight against al-Shabaab raises urgent questions about the efficacy of existing strategies. The past clearly holds lessons for the future, yet these lessons are often disregarded in favor of outdated ideologies. As the battle continues and al-Shabaab evolves, a recalibration of tactics that genuinely puts the Somali people’s security at the forefront is desperately needed. Failing to confront these uncomfortable truths only cements al-Shabaab’s position as a resilient predator in a landscape fraught with despair, chaos, and untapped potential for catastrophe. The world must ask: Can we afford to let this beast thrive unchecked for another eighteen years?

Deadly Attacks in Baluchistan by the Baloch Liberation Army

Authorities in Pakistan reported that insurgents have killed over 40 people, including civilians and security personnel, in a series of attacks across the southwestern province of Baluchistan. The violence, which began late Sunday, marks one of the deadliest days in the region in recent years.

The initial attack occurred in the Musakhail district, where armed men blocked an interprovincial highway and forcibly removed passengers from buses and trucks before executing at least 23 of them. The attackers also set fire to 10 vehicles before fleeing. Ayub Achakzai, a senior police officer, reported that the victims were primarily from Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province.

In separate incidents, insurgents launched hit-and-run raids targeting police and military positions across the province. These attacks resulted in the deaths of 14 soldiers, four police officers, and five civilians, including a pro-government tribal elder.

The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), an outlawed separatist group, claimed responsibility for the attacks. The BLA stated that their targets were individuals affiliated with Pakistani security forces. They reported a higher casualty toll than the official figures and warned residents to avoid highways and cooperate with their fighters.

The BLA, known for its attacks on non-Baloch residents and its opposition to Chinese investments in the region, has been involved in a prolonged insurgency seeking independence for Baluchistan.

In response, the Pakistani military conducted clearance operations and claimed to have killed 21 insurgents. The BLA confirmed the deaths of six of their fighters, describing them as suicide bombers. The conflicting casualty figures have not been independently verified.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the attacks and expressed his condolences for the victims. The BLA’s latest violence is part of a new operation across Baluchistan, which the group claims has achieved its objectives. They have announced plans to end their road blockades and vacate their positions.

Baluchistan, rich in natural resources and hosting major Chinese infrastructure projects like the Gwadar port, is a strategic area. The BLA has targeted Chinese nationals and infrastructure, protesting against what they describe as exploitation of their region’s resources.

The violence in Baluchistan underscores the persistent security challenges facing the region. Pakistan and China have pledged to combat the security threats jointly, despite the insurgent group’s continued efforts to disrupt investments and assert their demands for independence.

Al-Qaeda-Linked Group Claims Responsibility for Devastating Assault

On Saturday, the central region of Barsalogho in Burkina Faso experienced a catastrophic attack claimed by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an armed group affiliated with al-Qaeda. The assault, which targeted individuals digging defensive trenches, has resulted in up to 200 fatalities and injured at least 140 others.

The attack occurred approximately 40 kilometers (25 miles) north of Kaya, a critical town noted for housing the last standing forces protecting Burkina Faso’s capital, Ouagadougou. The attackers targeted teams engaged in trench-digging efforts designed to bolster security. In addition to the heavy casualties, several soldiers are reported missing, and attackers seized weapons and a military ambulance.

Senegal, highlighted the grim reality faced by survivors. JNIM posted distressing footage of the aftermath, revealing victims—men, women, and children—laying in the trenches they had been digging, which have become mass graves. The local hospital has called in additional medical staff from Kaya to manage the influx of casualties.

Burkina Faso’s military had received warnings of a possible attack the previous day and had mobilized efforts to dig trenches, reflecting the urgency and desperation in their defense measures. The country has struggled with armed groups linked to al-Qaeda, with significant portions of territory falling under their control.

Following a severance of ties with Western allies, including France, Burkina Faso has sought assistance from Russian mercenaries to bolster its defense efforts. Despite this support, the violence has intensified, approaching the capital and posing severe challenges for the country’s military leaders.

The current government, which came to power through a coup in 2022, faces ongoing internal unrest and attempts at further coups, exacerbating the difficult situation in combating armed groups and ensuring national security.

General Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s Controversial Demand and Its Potential Impact on Uganda-U.S. Relations

Uganda’s Chief of Defense Forces, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has issued a stunning demand for $100 billion in compensation from the United States. The demand, made via a series of posts on the social media platform X, has intensified the already strained relations between Uganda and the U.S.

“$100 billion is the minimum I demand from the USA. And they will pay every penny,” Muhoozi declared in one post, asserting that the U.S. owes Uganda this massive sum for its military contributions and losses in Somalia. He claimed, “We did a lot better than the people in Ukraine. It seems their specialty is running from Russians. We are waiting for payment.”

Uganda’s military, under AMISOM, has been pivotal in supporting Somalia’s UN-backed government against Al-Shabaab militants since 2007. The Ugandan forces have faced significant casualties while stabilizing key areas, particularly in Mogadishu. Yet, despite these contributions, the demand for such a staggering amount of money has left many questioning whether Muhoozi’s call is a genuine grievance or political grandstanding.

The timing of Muhoozi’s demand is critical. Relations between Uganda and the U.S. have soured recently, particularly after Uganda’s removal from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). This U.S. program had provided Uganda with duty-free access to American markets for over 1,800 products. The removal, effective January 1, 2024, was due to alleged “gross violations” of human rights, a move that has further strained ties.

“The USA must apologize to Uganda for removing us from AGOA,” Muhoozi insisted, linking the reinstatement to any discussion of compensation. The exclusion of Uganda from AGOA, along with Gabon, Niger, and the Central African Republic, has been compounded by U.S. sanctions targeting Ugandan officials over corruption and reports of extrajudicial killings.

Muhoozi, often dubbed Uganda’s “tweeting general” due to his provocative social media presence, is no stranger to controversy. His past statements include offering 100 cows as a bride price to Giorgia Meloni, the then-rising Italian prime minister, and threatening to invade Kenya. These incidents led to his temporary removal from his role as commander of Uganda’s land forces, though he was reinstated and promoted to Chief of Defense Forces in March 2024.

As Uganda approaches its 2026 presidential elections, where Muhoozi has hinted at running, his provocative demands and the escalating tensions with the U.S. underscore a period of significant diplomatic uncertainty. With nearly a million followers on X, Muhoozi’s statements are likely to fuel ongoing debates about Uganda’s foreign relations and its position on the global stage.

The $100 billion demand and the current diplomatic friction highlight a critical juncture in Uganda-U.S. relations. As the political landscape in Uganda evolves and the country navigates its international challenges, the international community watches closely to see how this bold demand will impact future diplomatic interactions and global perceptions of Uganda’s military and political ambitions.

Islamic State Affiliate Expands Operations, Targeting Regions Beyond Afghanistan

The United Nations has raised serious concerns about the growing threat posed by the Afghanistan-based Islamic State affiliate, IS-Khorasan, with warnings that the group could carry out attacks beyond the region. Speaking to the U.N. Security Council, Vladimir Voronkov, head of the U.N. counterterrorism office, highlighted that IS-Khorasan (IS-K) has bolstered its financial and logistical capacities over the past six months, significantly enhancing its recruitment efforts by tapping into Afghan and Central Asian diasporas.

Voronkov emphasized that the activities of IS-K and other terrorist organizations in Afghanistan are a “significant concern,” calling on Afghanistan’s neighbors to unite in preventing the country from becoming a hub of terrorism once more. He stressed the importance of regional cooperation to prevent the spread of IS-K’s influence and operations.

The threat from IS-K is underscored by recent events and reports. According to a U.N. report released on July 31, despite ongoing counterterrorism efforts, IS and its affiliates continue to show resilience and adaptability. The report noted that IS’s central command has reportedly directed operatives from Afghanistan and neighboring countries to carry out attacks abroad, including deadly incidents in Iran and Russia earlier this year.

While Afghanistan’s Taliban government asserts that its security forces have dismantled IS-K’s bases and neutralized its ability to threaten national and regional security, the U.N. remains skeptical about the long-term efficacy of these claims.

Voronkov also pointed out that IS activity is not limited to Afghanistan. He warned of escalating Islamic State operations across Africa, particularly in West Africa and the Sahel, where IS affiliates such as Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Islamic State in the Greater Sahel (ISGS) have expanded their reach. These groups now control significant areas, and if they continue to spread, a vast region from Mali to northern Nigeria could fall under their influence.

The U.N. official further highlighted IS-related threats in the Democratic Republic of Congo, northern Mozambique, Somalia, and Europe, where IS-K has been identified as the greatest external terrorist threat. This was starkly illustrated by the recent foiling of a plot in Vienna, where Austrian authorities arrested a 19-year-old who had pledged allegiance to IS. The individual had planned an attack at a concert by U.S. pop star Taylor Swift, leading to the cancellation of three sold-out performances in the city.

The expanding global threat posed by IS-Khorasan underscores the urgent need for coordinated international action to address the risks posed by this and other extremist groups.

Two Somali Citizens in Tucson Admit to Plotting Support for ISIS, Await Sentencing

Two Somali citizens residing in Tucson have admitted their involvement in a conspiracy to provide material support to the Islamic State group (ISIS). Ahmed Mahad Mohamed, 26, and Abdi Yemeni Hussein, 25, were apprehended on July 26, 2019, as they prepared to depart for Egypt with the intention of joining ISIS in the volatile Sinai Peninsula. Their sentencing is slated for October 11, 2024, before U.S. District Judge Jennifer G. Zipps.

The duo’s disturbing journey began in August 2018, when Mohamed sought out ISIS sympathizers online, revealing his aspiration to join the terrorist organization and achieve martyrdom. Hussein, it emerged, shared Mohamed’s extremist ambitions. By 2019, their plans had solidified, culminating in a face-to-face meeting to finalize their grim objectives. Hussein even suggested that if their plan to join ISIS faltered, they should consider attacking the White House.

By June 2019, they had liquidated their assets, selling their cars and purchasing plane tickets from Tucson to Cairo. On July 26, they arrived at Tucson International Airport, passed through security, and reached their departure gate. Mohamed was carrying a substantial sum of $10,000 intended for travel expenses and the procurement of firearms. Their plan was to infiltrate ISIS-controlled territories in Egypt. However, their plot was foiled by vigilant FBI agents who arrested them before they could board their flight.

Both Mohamed and Hussein now face severe penalties, including up to 20 years in prison and a $250,000 fine. Following the completion of their sentences, they will be deported to Somalia.

The case has drawn significant attention, particularly in the context of former President Donald Trump’s emphasis on stringent measures against such threats. Trump highlighted the necessity for vigilance and cited his controversial 2017 travel ban on several Muslim-majority countries, including Somalia, as a crucial preventive measure.

Meanwhile, Somalia’s National Security Advisor, Hussein Moalim Mohamud, has sought to downplay the threat posed by ISIS within Somalia, asserting that al-Shabab remains a far more significant menace. According to Mohamud, ISIS fighters in Somalia are relatively few and confined to a small area in the Puntland region.

The leader of ISIS in Somalia, Abdiqadir Mu’min, has a notorious history of radical activities dating back to his time in the U.K. before joining al-Shabab in 2010 and later defecting to ISIS in 2015. Despite his aggressive recruitment efforts, Mu’min’s faction remains small, with estimates ranging from 100 to 200 fighters, mostly foreigners. Mu’min has been a target of numerous U.S. counterterrorism operations, including a recent airstrike in May 2024, which he reportedly survived.

Despite its limited size, Mu’min’s faction continues to pose a threat, earning him the designation of a “specially designated global terrorist” by the U.S. Department of State. The rivalry between ISIS and al-Shabab further exacerbates regional instability, particularly in Somalia’s Bari region, where ISIS exerts influence through extortion and violence.

The arrest and guilty pleas of Mohamed and Hussein highlight the persistent threat posed by extremist ideologies and the ongoing efforts of law enforcement to thwart such dangerous plots. As the sentencing date approaches, the case serves as a stark reminder of the vigilance required to combat terrorism and protect national security.